回复: Good news or Bad news? -- 2篇关于加拿大房子权威机构预测文章
第二篇:西加受衰退影响最大
Western Canada hit hardest by decline
B.C. and Alberta see swifter, sharper downturn than other provinces as housing slumps and bankruptcies soar
LORI MCLEOD and TAVIA GRANT AND KATIE HYSLOP
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
February 10, 2009 at 3:04 AM EST
The global recession is cutting through British Columbia and Alberta with such alarming force and speed that the two provinces are bracing for an economic downturn as powerful as the rise that until recently defined a new West.
Fresh economic data on housing starts and personal bankruptcies show B.C. and Alberta - once holdouts to the U.S. and Central Canadian slumps - leading the country in decline.
In Alberta, personal bankruptcies soared by 27 per cent year-over-year in the 12-month period ended December, 2008, the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada said yesterday. That was nearly double the 14-per-cent increase for the entire country.
In December alone, personal bankruptcies in Alberta rose 106 per cent from the year before. They were up 51 per cent nationwide.
In British Columbia, personal bankruptcy rates haven't risen as dramatically, but the economic picture is darkening as the province struggles with a housing-market meltdown and the loss of 35,000 jobs last month alone. In January, existing home sales plunged by 58 per cent in Vancouver from the year before, the lowest activity for that month since the early 1980s.
B.C. home sales are expected to fall by another 19 per cent and prices by 11 per cent this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association said in a forecast yesterday. That compares with an expected 17-per-cent sales slump for all of Canada, and an estimated national price decline of 8 per cent.
The dismal bankruptcy and housing numbers come after a Canadian employment report last week showed the worst one-month job losses on record.
The economy shed 129,000 jobs in January, the third straight month of losses, sending the unemployment rate to a four-year high of 7.2 per cent.
The statistics are more troubling for British Columbia, a province where one in 10 jobs is related to the construction industry, said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union in Vancouver. Expected government spending on infrastructure and other construction projects may pick up only part of the slack, economists said.
"Real estate and construction have been a significant portion of growth from 2002 to 2007, and even part of 2008. Take that away and you end with a substantial hit on the economy," Mr. Pastrick said.
Housing starts are down sharply across the country - by 11 per cent in January to 153,000, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said yesterday. Total urban starts are now down more than 40 per cent from a year ago.
In Alberta, a willingness to take on more risk in good times may help explain why numbers are now shooting in the other direction, said David Bromwich, Calgary-based bankruptcy trustee.
"We had a phenomenal rise in real estate in Alberta, and also we've enjoyed a very, very healthy - perhaps overblown - economy in Alberta for years now. There's been a pervasive feeling that the sun would never set. Well, it just did."
Consumer bankruptcies swell whenever the economy sours - but this time the jump has been notably sharp and swift.
"Percentage-wise, this is an enormous increase, particularly in Western Canada," said Patricia Croft, chief economist with RBC Global Asset Management. "Historically, you don't usually see personal bankruptcies rise until the unemployment rates really begins to take off, so it seems a little premature."
The increase in personal bankruptcies also reflects the collapse of owner-operated small businesses caught in the recession.
Former restaurant and bar owner Jason Ewing, 35, recently found himself in this situation. A gas well operator at EnCana Corp., Mr. Ewing took on an additional career as the owner of Red's Place in Drumheller, Alta., in 2000.
Business serving up beer and steaks was brisk as the town's fortunes rose with the energy boom. By late 2007, however, a slump in tourism and fewer oil field crews took a toll. A disappointing summer season last year eventually shut him down.
"Exactly how we predicted, all the numbers went down, and it was just a no-brainer that it was time to close the restaurant," Mr. Ewing said. He subsequently filed for personal bankruptcy.
In British Columbia, the falling demand for both residential and non-residential buildings has led to less development. The value of building permits issued in B.C. in December sank by 41 per cent from the month before, a much greater drop than the national average.
One bright spot for the province will be the contribution to the economy from visitors and employment related to the 2010 Olympic Games. But the boost may only be a temporary mask for underlying weakness in the economy, Mr. Pastrick said.
原载:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090210.reconomy10/BNStory/crashandrecovery/home