Good news or Bad news? -- 请看来自加拿大房地产协会的预测

第一篇：住房销售2010年前不会反弹（言外之意：2010年前还会大幅下降）

本预测来自CREA--加拿大房地产协会。

Home sales won't rebound until 2010: CREA

By Garry Marr, Financial Post Published: Monday, February 09, 2009



Housing sales this year are expected to drop back to 2000 levels, according to a new report from the Canadian Real Estate Association.

The Ottawa-based group, which represents 100 boards across the country, issued a new forecast for 2009 on Monday and predicted sales would fall to 360,900. That would be a 16.9% decline from 2008. Sales last year fell 17.1% from 2007.

"We are caught in a cycle where consumer confidence has been eroded because of job losses and consumer confidence is an essential ingredient for housing sales activity," said Calvin Lindberg, president of CREA.

His group is forecasting a rebound by 2010 and forecasts sales to jump to 9.9%, with most of the growth coming in the second half of that year. British Columbia and Alberta are expected to have the strongest rebounds in 2010.

Prices are also forecast to fall this year before rebounding slightly in 2010. CREA said the average price of home sold in Canada will be $279,400 this year, a 8% decline from last year. In 2008, the average sale price in Canada dropped 0.7%.

The increase in prices is forecast to be modest next year. CREA says the average sale price of home next year will be $282,400, a 1.1% increase from 2009.

"Increasingly cautious homebuyers and mortgage lenders mean that active listings will take longer to sell in 2009 compared to previous years," said Gregory Klump, chief ecnomist with CREA. "The national housing market is recalibrating due to weak sales activity."

转者注：前4段说的是销量，后3段说的是价格。
原载：http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=1269996

回复: Good news or Bad news? -- 2篇关于加拿大房子权威机构预测文章

第二篇：西加受衰退影响最大

Western Canada hit hardest by decline

B.C. and Alberta see swifter, sharper downturn than other provinces as housing slumps and bankruptcies soar
LORI MCLEOD and TAVIA GRANT AND KATIE HYSLOP

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

February 10, 2009 at 3:04 AM EST

The global recession is cutting through British Columbia and Alberta with such alarming force and speed that the two provinces are bracing for an economic downturn as powerful as the rise that until recently defined a new West.

Fresh economic data on housing starts and personal bankruptcies show B.C. and Alberta - once holdouts to the U.S. and Central Canadian slumps - leading the country in decline.

In Alberta, personal bankruptcies soared by 27 per cent year-over-year in the 12-month period ended December, 2008, the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada said yesterday. That was nearly double the 14-per-cent increase for the entire country.

In December alone, personal bankruptcies in Alberta rose 106 per cent from the year before. They were up 51 per cent nationwide.

In British Columbia, personal bankruptcy rates haven't risen as dramatically, but the economic picture is darkening as the province struggles with a housing-market meltdown and the loss of 35,000 jobs last month alone. In January, existing home sales plunged by 58 per cent in Vancouver from the year before, the lowest activity for that month since the early 1980s.

B.C. home sales are expected to fall by another 19 per cent and prices by 11 per cent this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association said in a forecast yesterday. That compares with an expected 17-per-cent sales slump for all of Canada, and an estimated national price decline of 8 per cent.

The dismal bankruptcy and housing numbers come after a Canadian employment report last week showed the worst one-month job losses on record.

The economy shed 129,000 jobs in January, the third straight month of losses, sending the unemployment rate to a four-year high of 7.2 per cent.

The statistics are more troubling for British Columbia, a province where one in 10 jobs is related to the construction industry, said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union in Vancouver. Expected government spending on infrastructure and other construction projects may pick up only part of the slack, economists said.

"Real estate and construction have been a significant portion of growth from 2002 to 2007, and even part of 2008. Take that away and you end with a substantial hit on the economy," Mr. Pastrick said.

Housing starts are down sharply across the country - by 11 per cent in January to 153,000, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said yesterday. Total urban starts are now down more than 40 per cent from a year ago.

In Alberta, a willingness to take on more risk in good times may help explain why numbers are now shooting in the other direction, said David Bromwich, Calgary-based bankruptcy trustee.

"We had a phenomenal rise in real estate in Alberta, and also we've enjoyed a very, very healthy - perhaps overblown - economy in Alberta for years now. There's been a pervasive feeling that the sun would never set. Well, it just did."

Consumer bankruptcies swell whenever the economy sours - but this time the jump has been notably sharp and swift.

"Percentage-wise, this is an enormous increase, particularly in Western Canada," said Patricia Croft, chief economist with RBC Global Asset Management. "Historically, you don't usually see personal bankruptcies rise until the unemployment rates really begins to take off, so it seems a little premature."

The increase in personal bankruptcies also reflects the collapse of owner-operated small businesses caught in the recession.

Former restaurant and bar owner Jason Ewing, 35, recently found himself in this situation. A gas well operator at EnCana Corp., Mr. Ewing took on an additional career as the owner of Red's Place in Drumheller, Alta., in 2000.

Business serving up beer and steaks was brisk as the town's fortunes rose with the energy boom. By late 2007, however, a slump in tourism and fewer oil field crews took a toll. A disappointing summer season last year eventually shut him down.

"Exactly how we predicted, all the numbers went down, and it was just a no-brainer that it was time to close the restaurant," Mr. Ewing said. He subsequently filed for personal bankruptcy.

In British Columbia, the falling demand for both residential and non-residential buildings has led to less development. The value of building permits issued in B.C. in December sank by 41 per cent from the month before, a much greater drop than the national average.

One bright spot for the province will be the contribution to the economy from visitors and employment related to the 2010 Olympic Games. But the boost may only be a temporary mask for underlying weakness in the economy, Mr. Pastrick said.

原载：http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090210.reconomy10/BNStory/crashandrecovery/home

回复: Good news or Bad news? -- 2篇关于加拿大房子权威机构预测文章

有人欢喜有人优！主要是你站在什么位置看问题呀

回复: Good news or Bad news? -- 2篇关于加拿大房子权威机构预测文章

消息是好消息

可是就不知道能不能跌惨点。