- 主题发起人 Van SHN
- 发布时间 2010-01-02
回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
很多在西方社会屡试不爽的金科玉律一旦放到中国就不灵了。
其实是文化差异和社会体制不同而导致的！
房价是年薪的几倍，租房收益是否够得上同期银行利率等等，
在目前的中国房地产市场上都不见得适用，
西方社会是信用社会，支持今天用明天的钱，且社会福利保障制度比较健全，消费习惯是多信贷而少储蓄。
中国社会是农业社会，讲究的是仓里有粮，心里不慌，很忌讳寅吃卯粮，且社会福利保障制度薄弱，漏洞甚多，消费习惯是多多储蓄，防病防老！
另外中国重人情，民间借贷的便利程度远高于西方社会。
这就使中国人庞大的储蓄成为了房价天平一端巨大的砝码。
朱槠基在任的时候就曾警示说：“近10万亿城乡居民储蓄就是一只笼中虎，管理不好是要出大事的”（现今已经超过20万亿元）
如今这只笼中虎终于吹大了房产天价的泡沫，而且还有继续吹下去的能量。
现在房市刚性需求的典范――婚房，很多都是双方父母的防老钱在支撑着，结婚在中国也叫“成家”没有房子怎么算“家”？
各个有高校的大中城市，每年毕业的非本地学生，大多都不愿意回去建设家乡，而选择留在城里工作，于是刚需的规模越来越大。
而城市化的进程显然没有城市化的人口来的快，地少――人多――房涨，这是明摆着的！
快速上升的房价引来热钱，国内著名的温州炒房团就是一例，借着刚需推高的房价冲浪，获利后再抛给下一轮刚需接手。
要说泡沫，炒房团之流才算是真泡沫，08年的房价短暂走平，就是沿海经济体遭受海外订单消失而抽回炒房资金造成的。
国家不能坐看房产下跌，那势必连累被房地产绑架的银行业，于是一套房产政策组合拳一打，立刻引来无数刚需的追捧，结果09年的房价就如同吃了伟哥，成45度角的向上坚挺！
这一挺，又把炒房团给挺回来了，现在知道什么叫“推波助澜”了！
再加上全世界都衰退的时候中国人硬是吃着4万亿的“人参”硬挺，结果挺出了内伤，如今通货膨胀在所难免，房子又成了人们避免储蓄贬值的最佳投资方向，所以房价短期内大幅下挫的可能基本为零。
中国的房价有泡沫，泡沫还很大！但是想让它爆掉，不是那么简单的。
很多在西方社会屡试不爽的金科玉律一旦放到中国就不灵了。
其实是文化差异和社会体制不同而导致的！
房价是年薪的几倍，租房收益是否够得上同期银行利率等等，
在目前的中国房地产市场上都不见得适用，
西方社会是信用社会，支持今天用明天的钱，且社会福利保障制度比较健全，消费习惯是多信贷而少储蓄。
中国社会是农业社会，讲究的是仓里有粮，心里不慌，很忌讳寅吃卯粮，且社会福利保障制度薄弱，漏洞甚多，消费习惯是多多储蓄，防病防老！
另外中国重人情，民间借贷的便利程度远高于西方社会。
这就使中国人庞大的储蓄成为了房价天平一端巨大的砝码。
朱槠基在任的时候就曾警示说：“近10万亿城乡居民储蓄就是一只笼中虎，管理不好是要出大事的”（现今已经超过20万亿元）
如今这只笼中虎终于吹大了房产天价的泡沫，而且还有继续吹下去的能量。
现在房市刚性需求的典范――婚房，很多都是双方父母的防老钱在支撑着，结婚在中国也叫“成家”没有房子怎么算“家”？
各个有高校的大中城市，每年毕业的非本地学生，大多都不愿意回去建设家乡，而选择留在城里工作，于是刚需的规模越来越大。
而城市化的进程显然没有城市化的人口来的快，地少――人多――房涨，这是明摆着的！
快速上升的房价引来热钱，国内著名的温州炒房团就是一例，借着刚需推高的房价冲浪，获利后再抛给下一轮刚需接手。
要说泡沫，炒房团之流才算是真泡沫，08年的房价短暂走平，就是沿海经济体遭受海外订单消失而抽回炒房资金造成的。
国家不能坐看房产下跌，那势必连累被房地产绑架的银行业，于是一套房产政策组合拳一打，立刻引来无数刚需的追捧，结果09年的房价就如同吃了伟哥，成45度角的向上坚挺！
这一挺，又把炒房团给挺回来了，现在知道什么叫“推波助澜”了！
再加上全世界都衰退的时候中国人硬是吃着4万亿的“人参”硬挺，结果挺出了内伤，如今通货膨胀在所难免，房子又成了人们避免储蓄贬值的最佳投资方向，所以房价短期内大幅下挫的可能基本为零。
中国的房价有泡沫，泡沫还很大！但是想让它爆掉，不是那么简单的。
回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
这才是懂经济的人说的话.
很多在西方社会屡试不爽的金科玉律一旦放到中国就不灵了。
其实是文化差异和社会体制不同而导致的！
房价是年薪的几倍，租房收益是否够得上同期银行利率等等，
在目前的中国房地产市场上都不见得适用，
西方社会是信用社会，支持今天用明天的钱，且社会福利保障制度比较健全，消费习惯是多信贷而少储蓄。
中国社会是农业社会，讲究的是仓里有粮，心里不慌，很忌讳寅吃卯粮，且社会福利保障制度薄弱，漏洞甚多，消费习惯是多多储蓄，防病防老！
另外中国重人情，民间借贷的便利程度远高于西方社会。
这就使中国人庞大的储蓄成为了房价天平一端巨大的砝码。
朱槠基在任的时候就曾警示说：“近10万亿城乡居民储蓄就是一只笼中虎，管理不好是要出大事的”（现今已经超过20万亿元）
如今这只笼中虎终于吹大了房产天价的泡沫，而且还有继续吹下去的能量。
现在房市刚性需求的典范――婚房，很多都是双方父母的防老钱在支撑着，结婚在中国也叫“成家”没有房子怎么算“家”？
各个有高校的大中城市，每年毕业的非本地学生，大多都不愿意回去建设家乡，而选择留在城里工作，于是刚需的规模越来越大。
而城市化的进程显然没有城市化的人口来的快，地少――人多――房涨，这是明摆着的！
快速上升的房价引来热钱，国内著名的温州炒房团就是一例，借着刚需推高的房价冲浪，获利后再抛给下一轮刚需接手。
要说泡沫，炒房团之流才算是真泡沫，08年的房价短暂走平，就是沿海经济体遭受海外订单消失而抽回炒房资金造成的。
国家不能坐看房产下跌，那势必连累被房地产绑架的银行业，于是一套房产政策组合拳一打，立刻引来无数刚需的追捧，结果09年的房价就如同吃了伟哥，成45度角的向上坚挺！
这一挺，又把炒房团给挺回来了，现在知道什么叫“推波助澜”了！
再加上全世界都衰退的时候中国人硬是吃着4万亿的“人参”硬挺，结果挺出了内伤，如今通货膨胀在所难免，房子又成了人们避免储蓄贬值的最佳投资方向，所以房价短期内大幅下挫的可能基本为零。
中国的房价有泡沫，泡沫还很大！但是想让它爆掉，不是那么简单的。
这才是懂经济的人说的话.
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回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
这位仁兄，炒股知道么，当所有人都炒股时，股票就跌了，当所有人都不谈股票时，股票就会涨了。房子也一样，当所有人都谈房，炒房时，房子肯定跌，只是时间问题。
上海的房子跌过几次，2000年一次，那时淮海路房子才4000多一平米，2004年跌过一次，还有就是2008年底一次，不过，每次都跌完了大涨，如果这次跌要来临的话，肯定是一次大跌。
房子最终是要跌的，按照中国的ONE CHILD POLICY, 以后，一对夫妻四个老人，祖父母辈就有8个，那这对夫妻，每人能从父母那能继承3套房子，所以，等20年-30年，房子会多出来的。 不过，近的话，可能今年是个拐点
很多在西方社会屡试不爽的金科玉律一旦放到中国就不灵了。
其实是文化差异和社会体制不同而导致的！
房价是年薪的几倍，租房收益是否够得上同期银行利率等等，
在目前的中国房地产市场上都不见得适用，
西方社会是信用社会，支持今天用明天的钱，且社会福利保障制度比较健全，消费习惯是多信贷而少储蓄。
中国社会是农业社会，讲究的是仓里有粮，心里不慌，很忌讳寅吃卯粮，且社会福利保障制度薄弱，漏洞甚多，消费习惯是多多储蓄，防病防老！
另外中国重人情，民间借贷的便利程度远高于西方社会。
这就使中国人庞大的储蓄成为了房价天平一端巨大的砝码。
朱槠基在任的时候就曾警示说：“近10万亿城乡居民储蓄就是一只笼中虎，管理不好是要出大事的”（现今已经超过20万亿元）
如今这只笼中虎终于吹大了房产天价的泡沫，而且还有继续吹下去的能量。
现在房市刚性需求的典范――婚房，很多都是双方父母的防老钱在支撑着，结婚在中国也叫“成家”没有房子怎么算“家”？
各个有高校的大中城市，每年毕业的非本地学生，大多都不愿意回去建设家乡，而选择留在城里工作，于是刚需的规模越来越大。
而城市化的进程显然没有城市化的人口来的快，地少――人多――房涨，这是明摆着的！
快速上升的房价引来热钱，国内著名的温州炒房团就是一例，借着刚需推高的房价冲浪，获利后再抛给下一轮刚需接手。
要说泡沫，炒房团之流才算是真泡沫，08年的房价短暂走平，就是沿海经济体遭受海外订单消失而抽回炒房资金造成的。
国家不能坐看房产下跌，那势必连累被房地产绑架的银行业，于是一套房产政策组合拳一打，立刻引来无数刚需的追捧，结果09年的房价就如同吃了伟哥，成45度角的向上坚挺！
这一挺，又把炒房团给挺回来了，现在知道什么叫“推波助澜”了！
再加上全世界都衰退的时候中国人硬是吃着4万亿的“人参”硬挺，结果挺出了内伤，如今通货膨胀在所难免，房子又成了人们避免储蓄贬值的最佳投资方向，所以房价短期内大幅下挫的可能基本为零。
中国的房价有泡沫，泡沫还很大！但是想让它爆掉，不是那么简单的。
这位仁兄，炒股知道么，当所有人都炒股时，股票就跌了，当所有人都不谈股票时，股票就会涨了。房子也一样，当所有人都谈房，炒房时，房子肯定跌，只是时间问题。
上海的房子跌过几次，2000年一次，那时淮海路房子才4000多一平米，2004年跌过一次，还有就是2008年底一次，不过，每次都跌完了大涨，如果这次跌要来临的话，肯定是一次大跌。
房子最终是要跌的，按照中国的ONE CHILD POLICY, 以后，一对夫妻四个老人，祖父母辈就有8个，那这对夫妻，每人能从父母那能继承3套房子，所以，等20年-30年，房子会多出来的。 不过，近的话，可能今年是个拐点
回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
很多在西方社会屡试不爽的金科玉律一旦放到中国就不灵了。
其实是文化差异和社会体制不同而导致的！
房价是年薪的几倍，租房收益是否够得上同期银行利率等等，
在目前的中国房地产市场上都不见得适用，
西方社会是信用社会，支持今天用明天的钱，且社会福利保障制度比较健全，消费习惯是多信贷而少储蓄。
不是不灵,是时间未到,总要还的...
20万亿储蓄,13亿人,平均一人2万,,,,,去掉太子党的钱,一人6000,算多吗?
洗洗睡吧,不懂不要出来装懂
中国社会是农业社会，讲究的是仓里有粮，心里不慌，很忌讳寅吃卯粮，且社会福利保障制度薄弱，漏洞甚多，消费习惯是多多储蓄，防病防老！
另外中国重人情，民间借贷的便利程度远高于西方社会。
这就使中国人庞大的储蓄成为了房价天平一端巨大的砝码。
朱槠基在任的时候就曾警示说：“近10万亿城乡居民储蓄就是一只笼中虎，管理不好是要出大事的”（现今已经超过20万亿元）
如今这只笼中虎终于吹大了房产天价的泡沫，而且还有继续吹下去的能量。
现在房市刚性需求的典范――婚房，很多都是双方父母的防老钱在支撑着，结婚在中国也叫“成家”没有房子怎么算“家”？
各个有高校的大中城市，每年毕业的非本地学生，大多都不愿意回去建设家乡，而选择留在城里工作，于是刚需的规模越来越大。
而城市化的进程显然没有城市化的人口来的快，地少――人多――房涨，这是明摆着的！
快速上升的房价引来热钱，国内著名的温州炒房团就是一例，借着刚需推高的房价冲浪，获利后再抛给下一轮刚需接手。
要说泡沫，炒房团之流才算是真泡沫，08年的房价短暂走平，就是沿海经济体遭受海外订单消失而抽回炒房资金造成的。
国家不能坐看房产下跌，那势必连累被房地产绑架的银行业，于是一套房产政策组合拳一打，立刻引来无数刚需的追捧，结果09年的房价就如同吃了伟哥，成45度角的向上坚挺！
这一挺，又把炒房团给挺回来了，现在知道什么叫“推波助澜”了！
再加上全世界都衰退的时候中国人硬是吃着4万亿的“人参”硬挺，结果挺出了内伤，如今通货膨胀在所难免，房子又成了人们避免储蓄贬值的最佳投资方向，所以房价短期内大幅下挫的可能基本为零。
中国的房价有泡沫，泡沫还很大！但是想让它爆掉，不是那么简单的。
回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
yao8bin：不是不灵,是时间未到,总要还的...
批驳的再具体点成吗？不知道您所说的时间未到，到底是啥时候到呢？
yao8bin：20万亿储蓄,13亿人,平均一人2万,,,,,去掉太子党的钱,一人6000,算多吗?
20万亿储蓄很有风险不是我说的，是中国金融界提出来的，这20万亿储蓄多数集中在各大城市中，而房价也是在各大城市里不正常的疯涨，您算了个平均值，有什么实际的参考价值？
另外，太子党有多少钱是您能估计的出来的吗？太子党会把这些钱存在中国的银行里和老百姓的钱鱼水深情吗？说话做事要用脑子，而不是拍脑子。
yao8bin：洗洗睡吧,不懂不要出来装懂
一共三句话，一句有用的也没整出来，还回复到我的帖子里，搞得和潜伏似的，这水平，呵呵，还是您先睡吧！
yao8bin：不是不灵,是时间未到,总要还的...
批驳的再具体点成吗？不知道您所说的时间未到，到底是啥时候到呢？
yao8bin：20万亿储蓄,13亿人,平均一人2万,,,,,去掉太子党的钱,一人6000,算多吗?
20万亿储蓄很有风险不是我说的，是中国金融界提出来的，这20万亿储蓄多数集中在各大城市中，而房价也是在各大城市里不正常的疯涨，您算了个平均值，有什么实际的参考价值？
另外，太子党有多少钱是您能估计的出来的吗？太子党会把这些钱存在中国的银行里和老百姓的钱鱼水深情吗？说话做事要用脑子，而不是拍脑子。
yao8bin：洗洗睡吧,不懂不要出来装懂
一共三句话，一句有用的也没整出来，还回复到我的帖子里，搞得和潜伏似的，这水平，呵呵，还是您先睡吧！
回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
房产和股市有相同点也有不同点，不能一概而论。
现在支撑着中国楼市的不少的是刚性需求，就是说他们买房是用来“住”的，而不是用来“炒”的。
我相信，中国的股市里，买股票是打算收购公司，或等待每年分红的应该很罕见吧？所以二级市场上的股票，其本质就是用来“炒”的。
股票没有刚性需求，没人可以“吃”股票或“住”股票，一旦盈利目的无法达到就只有抛出了事。
而房产不同，炒楼的看到行情不对，确实会抛出多余的房产换取利润，但是刚性需求的购楼者，任由行情涨跌，也无法轻易的抛出自己居住的唯一房产，反而在房价下跌到合适的心理价位时会积极买进，以改善居住条件。
08年底，楼市风声鹤唳，刚需都持币观望，盼望房价能放量下跌，但国家为了振兴“低靡的楼市”一套政策组合拳刚一出手，立刻就有把持不住的刚需“先下手为强”了，结果导致的是刚需们心理防线的集体崩溃！大家都生怕错过最低点一样的冲进楼市里见房就抢，搞得只有几百套房源的楼盘发出上万个预约号。
这么强烈的供需矛盾，房价不涨那是笑话！
涨价的结果，就是热钱的涌入，哪里有利润那里就有这些炒家的身影，就像那里有腐尸那里必有苍蝇一样。
刚需搭了一个供不应求的台，而炒家正好来唱这出“泡沫房价”的戏！
我来预测一下10年中国房价这出戏大致打算怎么唱：
国家先要抑制刚需，没他们出来搭台，炒家是唱不了泡沫戏的。
于是“经适房”“廉租房”纷纷出笼，即解决了部分刚需，又平抑了对于高房价的民怨，可谓一石二鸟。
刚需对付完，再对开发商来一刀，“小样儿的”让你们赚的满盆满钵还要哄抬房价！以后拿地一律出一半钱当押金，没有足够的实力不要在地产界混了！这样一来剩下的都是大庄家，便于管理容易沟通。
再和自家七八个大帐房打个招呼，凡是购买第二套住房的一律重首付，高利率，想借国家的钱炒楼没那么容易！
这几招一使，房价上涨肯定会放缓，但是国家也不会让它就此跳水，好歹自家帐房还放着几千万亿的债在那些买了房的刚需手里，万一冷水浇过了头，房价一路下滑止不住，那还是会出乱子的！
只是我实在不怎么相信国家的调控手腕的精确性，09年初一推结果推出了个房价新高，10年又改成一拉，可能拉出个十年内新低也没一定，到时候又要往上推，唉！你说当个宏观调控的人多累呀！
房产和股市有相同点也有不同点，不能一概而论。
现在支撑着中国楼市的不少的是刚性需求，就是说他们买房是用来“住”的，而不是用来“炒”的。
我相信，中国的股市里，买股票是打算收购公司，或等待每年分红的应该很罕见吧？所以二级市场上的股票，其本质就是用来“炒”的。
股票没有刚性需求，没人可以“吃”股票或“住”股票，一旦盈利目的无法达到就只有抛出了事。
而房产不同，炒楼的看到行情不对，确实会抛出多余的房产换取利润，但是刚性需求的购楼者，任由行情涨跌，也无法轻易的抛出自己居住的唯一房产，反而在房价下跌到合适的心理价位时会积极买进，以改善居住条件。
08年底，楼市风声鹤唳，刚需都持币观望，盼望房价能放量下跌，但国家为了振兴“低靡的楼市”一套政策组合拳刚一出手，立刻就有把持不住的刚需“先下手为强”了，结果导致的是刚需们心理防线的集体崩溃！大家都生怕错过最低点一样的冲进楼市里见房就抢，搞得只有几百套房源的楼盘发出上万个预约号。
这么强烈的供需矛盾，房价不涨那是笑话！
涨价的结果，就是热钱的涌入，哪里有利润那里就有这些炒家的身影，就像那里有腐尸那里必有苍蝇一样。
刚需搭了一个供不应求的台，而炒家正好来唱这出“泡沫房价”的戏！
我来预测一下10年中国房价这出戏大致打算怎么唱：
国家先要抑制刚需，没他们出来搭台，炒家是唱不了泡沫戏的。
于是“经适房”“廉租房”纷纷出笼，即解决了部分刚需，又平抑了对于高房价的民怨，可谓一石二鸟。
刚需对付完，再对开发商来一刀，“小样儿的”让你们赚的满盆满钵还要哄抬房价！以后拿地一律出一半钱当押金，没有足够的实力不要在地产界混了！这样一来剩下的都是大庄家，便于管理容易沟通。
再和自家七八个大帐房打个招呼，凡是购买第二套住房的一律重首付，高利率，想借国家的钱炒楼没那么容易！
这几招一使，房价上涨肯定会放缓，但是国家也不会让它就此跳水，好歹自家帐房还放着几千万亿的债在那些买了房的刚需手里，万一冷水浇过了头，房价一路下滑止不住，那还是会出乱子的！
只是我实在不怎么相信国家的调控手腕的精确性，09年初一推结果推出了个房价新高，10年又改成一拉，可能拉出个十年内新低也没一定，到时候又要往上推，唉！你说当个宏观调控的人多累呀！
回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
假设上海有5000万人口，刚需吧！可4999万人平均工资一年才3万，家庭6万，另有1万贪官，每人囤积1000套房，房价300万，你说它破不破？
不用拿刚性需求说事，毕业生、农民工、保姆，这些人需求够刚性，人够多，但以他们的实力，对支撑泡沫构不成力量。就好象问一个农民工“50万的房你买吗？”民工答“买不起！”于是你又问“那200万的房怎么样？”你说这不是废话么？但50万对房价来说也许不是泡沫，而200万就有点泡沫了
中国房价不仅不同于西方国家，和日本也是大不相同的。房价问题相当于扯下了政府的遮羞布，让所有的制度不公、体制漏洞、腐败、丑陋积习等等，通过房价“市场”集中表现了出来，对政府来说也是始料未及的。在房价的实用性问题面前，政府再来个比“和谐社会”动听10倍的愚民口号也不能消除社会动荡的风险。结果是房价不跌，社会要乱，房价大跌，社会也要乱，看政府这次怎么搞吧。说白了涛哥是建国以来最不强硬的中国领导人，只靠政治手腕，没点真才实学的话，要处理这带有许多积累成分的摊子，恐怕是任重道远的事。
个人最讨厌的废话就是“要稳定房价”（也就是要保持老百姓买不起房的状态），“房地产对拉动国民经济起到了积极作用。”对这些X官怎一句“他妈的”了得！
刚需与泡沫不破没有必然联系。
假设上海有5000万人口，刚需吧！可4999万人平均工资一年才3万，家庭6万，另有1万贪官，每人囤积1000套房，房价300万，你说它破不破？
不用拿刚性需求说事，毕业生、农民工、保姆，这些人需求够刚性，人够多，但以他们的实力，对支撑泡沫构不成力量。就好象问一个农民工“50万的房你买吗？”民工答“买不起！”于是你又问“那200万的房怎么样？”你说这不是废话么？但50万对房价来说也许不是泡沫，而200万就有点泡沫了
中国房价不仅不同于西方国家，和日本也是大不相同的。房价问题相当于扯下了政府的遮羞布，让所有的制度不公、体制漏洞、腐败、丑陋积习等等，通过房价“市场”集中表现了出来，对政府来说也是始料未及的。在房价的实用性问题面前，政府再来个比“和谐社会”动听10倍的愚民口号也不能消除社会动荡的风险。结果是房价不跌，社会要乱，房价大跌，社会也要乱，看政府这次怎么搞吧。说白了涛哥是建国以来最不强硬的中国领导人，只靠政治手腕，没点真才实学的话，要处理这带有许多积累成分的摊子，恐怕是任重道远的事。
个人最讨厌的废话就是“要稳定房价”（也就是要保持老百姓买不起房的状态），“房地产对拉动国民经济起到了积极作用。”对这些X官怎一句“他妈的”了得！
最后编辑: 2010-01-08
回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
价格围绕价值上下波动，这个理论不是主流经济学的理论，马克思的一家之言而已。 至于中国的房地产的泡沫有多大，坦率地说，我个人认为没有多大。单纯看出租收益率来判断中国的房价高低意义不大，因为中国人买房图得不是租金，而是一个保值储蓄的功能，好比你买了金子，放在家里，一分钱租金也没有，但是它有个保值的功能。
上海的房子，的确非常贵，但是泡沫有限，预计未来几年还可以翻倍，参照香港97之前。
价格围绕价值上下波动，这个理论不是主流经济学的理论，马克思的一家之言而已。 至于中国的房地产的泡沫有多大，坦率地说，我个人认为没有多大。单纯看出租收益率来判断中国的房价高低意义不大，因为中国人买房图得不是租金，而是一个保值储蓄的功能，好比你买了金子，放在家里，一分钱租金也没有，但是它有个保值的功能。
上海的房子，的确非常贵，但是泡沫有限，预计未来几年还可以翻倍，参照香港97之前。
回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
在中国一线大城市房市有多大的泡沫这是显而易见的事情，连我们这样的二线城市的房价也是几倍上翻。当然可以说是需求拉动的价格上涨，我不懂经济学，不明白太高深的道理，但我感觉买房从一开始的自住保值需求，后来发展到升值挣钱，再后来可以靠房子发财、发大财，再有方方面面的力量参与炒作，然后房价一路飙高，迫使更多的人跟上来，有钱的人买来等继续涨，没钱的砸锅卖铁买来住…，这里面有多少眼泪、多少辛酸！我就不说了，太多的故事。
在中国一线大城市房市有多大的泡沫这是显而易见的事情，连我们这样的二线城市的房价也是几倍上翻。当然可以说是需求拉动的价格上涨，我不懂经济学，不明白太高深的道理，但我感觉买房从一开始的自住保值需求，后来发展到升值挣钱，再后来可以靠房子发财、发大财，再有方方面面的力量参与炒作，然后房价一路飙高，迫使更多的人跟上来，有钱的人买来等继续涨，没钱的砸锅卖铁买来住…，这里面有多少眼泪、多少辛酸！我就不说了，太多的故事。
回复: 大陆房产的泡沫到底有多大？
转自Business Week
Mania on the Mainland
Think the U.S. real estate bubble was bad? China's could be worse
By Dexter Roberts
Beijing - Li Nan has real estate fever. A 27-year-old steel trader at China Minmetals, a state-owned commodities company, Li lives with his parents in a cramped 700-sq.-ft. apartment in west Beijing. Li originally planned to buy his own place when he got married, but after watching Beijing real estate prices soar, he has been spending all his free time searching for an apartment. If he finds the right placepreferably a two-bedroom in the historic Dongcheng quarter, near the city centerhe hopes to buy immediately. Act now, he figures, or live with Mom and Dad forever. In the last 12 months such apartments have doubled or tripled in price, to about $400 per square foot. "This year they'll be even higher," says Li.
Millions of Chinese are pursuing property with a zeal once typical of house-happy Americans. Some Chinese are plunking down wads of cash for homes: Others are taking out mortgages at record levels. Developers are snapping up land for luxury high-rises and villas, and the banks are eagerly funding them. Some local officials are even building towns from scratch in the desert, certain that demand won't flag. And if families can swing it, they buy two apartmentsone to live in, one to flip when prices jump further.
And jump they have. In Shanghai, prices for high-end real estate were up 54% through September, to $500 per square foot. In November alone, housing prices in 70 major cities rose 5.7%, while housing starts nationwide rose a staggering 194%.
The real estate rush is fueling fears of a bubble that could burst later in 2010, devastating homeowners, banks, developers, stock markets, and local governments. "Once the bubble pops, our economic growth will stop," warns Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Finance Research Center. On Dec. 27, China Premier Wen Jiabao told news agency Xinhua that "property prices have risen too quickly." He pledged a crackdown on speculators.
UNAFFORDABLE PRICES
Despite parallels with other bubble markets, the China bubble is not quite so easy to understand. In some places, demand for upper middle class housing is so hot it can't be satisfied. In others, speculators keep driving up prices for land, luxury apartments, and villas even though local rents are actually dropping because tenants are scarce. What's clear is that the bubble is inflating at the rich end, while little low-cost housing gets built for middle and low-income Chinese. In Beijing's Chaoyang districtwhich represents a third of all residential property deals in the capitalhomes now sell for an average of nearly $300 per square foot. That means a typical 1,000-sq.-ft. apartment costs about 80 times the average annual income of the city's residents. Koyo Ozeki, an analyst at U.S. investment manager Pimco, estimates that only 10% of residential sales in China are for the mass market. Developers find the margins in high-end housing much fatter than returns from building ordinary homes.
How did this bubble get going? Low interest rates, official encouragement of bank lending, and then Beijing's half-trillion-dollar stimulus plan all made funds readily available. City and provincial governments have been gladly cooperating with developers: Economists estimate that half of all local government revenue comes from selling state-owned land. Chinese consumers, fearing inflation will return and outstrip the tiny interest they earn on their savings, have pursued property ever more aggressively.
Companies in the chemical, steel, textile, and shoe industries have started up property divisions too: The chance of a quick return is much higher than in their primary business. "When you sit down with a table of businessmen, the story is usually how they got lucky from a piece of land," says Andy Xie, an independent economist who once worked in Hong Kong as Morgan Stanley's (MS) top Asia analyst. "No one talks about their factories making money these days."
HOMES BUILT ON SAND
Newly wealthy towns are playing the game with a vengeance. Ordos is a city of 1.3 million in China's Inner Mongolia region. It has gotten rich from the discovery of a big coal seam nearby. An emerging generation of tycoons, developers, and local officials will go to any length to invent a modern Ordos. So 16 miles from the old town, a new civic center is emerging from the desert that could easily pass for the capital of a midsize country. An enormous complex houses City Hall and the local Communist Party headquarters, each 11 stories tall with sweeping circular driveways. Nearby loom a fortress-like opera house and a slate-gray, modernist public library. Thousands of villas and apartment towers stretch into the distance, all built by local developers in the hope that Ordos' recently prosperous will buy the places to be near the new center of power. Workers get bused daily to the new city hall, but the housing is still largely unoccupied. "Why would anyone go there?" asks Zhao Hailin, a street artist in the old town. "It's a city of empty buildings." (Ordos officials would not comment for this story.)
The central government now faces two dangers. One is the anger of ordinary Chinese. In a recent survey by the People's Bank of China, two-thirds of respondents said real estate prices were too high. A serial drama with the ironic name The Romance of Housing, featuring the travails of families unable to afford apartments, was one of the most popular shows on Beijing Television until broadcasting authorities pulled it off the airwaves in November. The official reason was that the show was too racy (one woman got an apartment by becoming the mistress of a corrupt local official), but online chat rooms speculated that the show was cut because it was upsetting to people unable to afford apartments.
The debate has become even more charged following injuries and deaths related to real estate. A woman from Chengdu committed suicide by torching herself when her former husband's three-story factory and attached living space were demolished to make way for a new road. A man in Beijing suffered severe burns in a similar protest over his home. In early December five professors at Peking University wrote to the National People's Congress calling for changes to a land seizure and demolition law and accusing developers of usurping the government's role when taking land for construction. The law is leading to "mass incidents" and "extreme events," the professors warned.
The second danger is that Beijing will try, and fail, to let the air out of the bubble. Pulling off a soft landing means slowly calming the markets, stabilizing prices, and building more affordable housing. To discourage speculation, the State Council, China's cabinet, is extending, from two years to five, the period during which a tax is levied on the resale of apartments. Tighter rules on mortgages may follow. Beijing also plans to build apartments for 15 million poor families.
KEY TO GROWTH
The government is reluctant to crack down too hard because construction, steel, cement, furniture, and other sectors are directly tied to growth in real estate; in November, for example, retail sales of furniture and construction materials jumped more than 40%. At the December Central Economic Work Conference, an annual policy-setting confab, officials said real estate would continue to be a key driver of growth.
The worst scenario is that the central authorities let the party go on too long, then suddenly ramp up interest rates to stop the inflationary spiral. Without cheap credit, developers won't be able to refinance their loans, consumers will no longer take out mortgages, local banks' property portfolios will sour, and industrial companies that relied on real estate for a chunk of profits will suffer. It's not encouraging that the Chinese have been ham-handed about stopping previous real estate frenzies. In the 1990s the government brutally ended a bubble in Shanghai and Beijing by cutting off credit to developers and hiking rates sharply. The measures worked, but property prices plunged and economic growth slowed.
Analysts are divided over the probabilities of such a crash, but even real estate executives are getting nervous. Wang Shi, chairman of top developer Vanke, has warned repeatedly in recent weeks about the risk of a bubble. In his most recent comments he expressed fear that the bubble might spread far beyond Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.
PROFIT VS. SOUL
One difficulty in handicapping the likelihood of a nasty pullback is the opacity of the data. As long as property prices stay high, the balance sheets of the developers look strong. And no one knows for sure how much of the more than $1.3 trillion in last year's bank loans funded real estate ventures. Analysts figure a substantial portion of that sum went into property, much of it indirectly. Banks often lend to state-owned companies for industrial purposes. But the state companies can then divert the funds to their own real estate businessesor relend the money to an outside developer. Meanwhile, the big banks may be cutting back on their real estate risk by selling loans to smaller local banks and credit co-ops.
For now, the party continues. On Dec. 12, Beijing developer Soho China celebrated a record-breaking year with a gala at the China Central Place JW Marriott (MAR). Guests dined on crab and avocado timbale, white bean soup, and beef tenderloin with wild mushrooms (Soho would not comment for this story). After a dance performance, a panel debated "The Balance Between Profit and Soul." When a writer joked he could not afford an apartmentand was still waiting for Soho Chairman Pan Shiyi to give him onethe crowd of 600 well-heeled developers, entrepreneurs, and consultants laughed appreciatively. If the bubble bursts, few will be laughing.
转自Business Week
Mania on the Mainland
Think the U.S. real estate bubble was bad? China's could be worse
By Dexter Roberts
Beijing - Li Nan has real estate fever. A 27-year-old steel trader at China Minmetals, a state-owned commodities company, Li lives with his parents in a cramped 700-sq.-ft. apartment in west Beijing. Li originally planned to buy his own place when he got married, but after watching Beijing real estate prices soar, he has been spending all his free time searching for an apartment. If he finds the right placepreferably a two-bedroom in the historic Dongcheng quarter, near the city centerhe hopes to buy immediately. Act now, he figures, or live with Mom and Dad forever. In the last 12 months such apartments have doubled or tripled in price, to about $400 per square foot. "This year they'll be even higher," says Li.
Millions of Chinese are pursuing property with a zeal once typical of house-happy Americans. Some Chinese are plunking down wads of cash for homes: Others are taking out mortgages at record levels. Developers are snapping up land for luxury high-rises and villas, and the banks are eagerly funding them. Some local officials are even building towns from scratch in the desert, certain that demand won't flag. And if families can swing it, they buy two apartmentsone to live in, one to flip when prices jump further.
And jump they have. In Shanghai, prices for high-end real estate were up 54% through September, to $500 per square foot. In November alone, housing prices in 70 major cities rose 5.7%, while housing starts nationwide rose a staggering 194%.
The real estate rush is fueling fears of a bubble that could burst later in 2010, devastating homeowners, banks, developers, stock markets, and local governments. "Once the bubble pops, our economic growth will stop," warns Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Finance Research Center. On Dec. 27, China Premier Wen Jiabao told news agency Xinhua that "property prices have risen too quickly." He pledged a crackdown on speculators.
UNAFFORDABLE PRICES
Despite parallels with other bubble markets, the China bubble is not quite so easy to understand. In some places, demand for upper middle class housing is so hot it can't be satisfied. In others, speculators keep driving up prices for land, luxury apartments, and villas even though local rents are actually dropping because tenants are scarce. What's clear is that the bubble is inflating at the rich end, while little low-cost housing gets built for middle and low-income Chinese. In Beijing's Chaoyang districtwhich represents a third of all residential property deals in the capitalhomes now sell for an average of nearly $300 per square foot. That means a typical 1,000-sq.-ft. apartment costs about 80 times the average annual income of the city's residents. Koyo Ozeki, an analyst at U.S. investment manager Pimco, estimates that only 10% of residential sales in China are for the mass market. Developers find the margins in high-end housing much fatter than returns from building ordinary homes.
How did this bubble get going? Low interest rates, official encouragement of bank lending, and then Beijing's half-trillion-dollar stimulus plan all made funds readily available. City and provincial governments have been gladly cooperating with developers: Economists estimate that half of all local government revenue comes from selling state-owned land. Chinese consumers, fearing inflation will return and outstrip the tiny interest they earn on their savings, have pursued property ever more aggressively.
Companies in the chemical, steel, textile, and shoe industries have started up property divisions too: The chance of a quick return is much higher than in their primary business. "When you sit down with a table of businessmen, the story is usually how they got lucky from a piece of land," says Andy Xie, an independent economist who once worked in Hong Kong as Morgan Stanley's (MS) top Asia analyst. "No one talks about their factories making money these days."
HOMES BUILT ON SAND
Newly wealthy towns are playing the game with a vengeance. Ordos is a city of 1.3 million in China's Inner Mongolia region. It has gotten rich from the discovery of a big coal seam nearby. An emerging generation of tycoons, developers, and local officials will go to any length to invent a modern Ordos. So 16 miles from the old town, a new civic center is emerging from the desert that could easily pass for the capital of a midsize country. An enormous complex houses City Hall and the local Communist Party headquarters, each 11 stories tall with sweeping circular driveways. Nearby loom a fortress-like opera house and a slate-gray, modernist public library. Thousands of villas and apartment towers stretch into the distance, all built by local developers in the hope that Ordos' recently prosperous will buy the places to be near the new center of power. Workers get bused daily to the new city hall, but the housing is still largely unoccupied. "Why would anyone go there?" asks Zhao Hailin, a street artist in the old town. "It's a city of empty buildings." (Ordos officials would not comment for this story.)
The central government now faces two dangers. One is the anger of ordinary Chinese. In a recent survey by the People's Bank of China, two-thirds of respondents said real estate prices were too high. A serial drama with the ironic name The Romance of Housing, featuring the travails of families unable to afford apartments, was one of the most popular shows on Beijing Television until broadcasting authorities pulled it off the airwaves in November. The official reason was that the show was too racy (one woman got an apartment by becoming the mistress of a corrupt local official), but online chat rooms speculated that the show was cut because it was upsetting to people unable to afford apartments.
The debate has become even more charged following injuries and deaths related to real estate. A woman from Chengdu committed suicide by torching herself when her former husband's three-story factory and attached living space were demolished to make way for a new road. A man in Beijing suffered severe burns in a similar protest over his home. In early December five professors at Peking University wrote to the National People's Congress calling for changes to a land seizure and demolition law and accusing developers of usurping the government's role when taking land for construction. The law is leading to "mass incidents" and "extreme events," the professors warned.
The second danger is that Beijing will try, and fail, to let the air out of the bubble. Pulling off a soft landing means slowly calming the markets, stabilizing prices, and building more affordable housing. To discourage speculation, the State Council, China's cabinet, is extending, from two years to five, the period during which a tax is levied on the resale of apartments. Tighter rules on mortgages may follow. Beijing also plans to build apartments for 15 million poor families.
KEY TO GROWTH
The government is reluctant to crack down too hard because construction, steel, cement, furniture, and other sectors are directly tied to growth in real estate; in November, for example, retail sales of furniture and construction materials jumped more than 40%. At the December Central Economic Work Conference, an annual policy-setting confab, officials said real estate would continue to be a key driver of growth.
The worst scenario is that the central authorities let the party go on too long, then suddenly ramp up interest rates to stop the inflationary spiral. Without cheap credit, developers won't be able to refinance their loans, consumers will no longer take out mortgages, local banks' property portfolios will sour, and industrial companies that relied on real estate for a chunk of profits will suffer. It's not encouraging that the Chinese have been ham-handed about stopping previous real estate frenzies. In the 1990s the government brutally ended a bubble in Shanghai and Beijing by cutting off credit to developers and hiking rates sharply. The measures worked, but property prices plunged and economic growth slowed.
Analysts are divided over the probabilities of such a crash, but even real estate executives are getting nervous. Wang Shi, chairman of top developer Vanke, has warned repeatedly in recent weeks about the risk of a bubble. In his most recent comments he expressed fear that the bubble might spread far beyond Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.
PROFIT VS. SOUL
One difficulty in handicapping the likelihood of a nasty pullback is the opacity of the data. As long as property prices stay high, the balance sheets of the developers look strong. And no one knows for sure how much of the more than $1.3 trillion in last year's bank loans funded real estate ventures. Analysts figure a substantial portion of that sum went into property, much of it indirectly. Banks often lend to state-owned companies for industrial purposes. But the state companies can then divert the funds to their own real estate businessesor relend the money to an outside developer. Meanwhile, the big banks may be cutting back on their real estate risk by selling loans to smaller local banks and credit co-ops.
For now, the party continues. On Dec. 12, Beijing developer Soho China celebrated a record-breaking year with a gala at the China Central Place JW Marriott (MAR). Guests dined on crab and avocado timbale, white bean soup, and beef tenderloin with wild mushrooms (Soho would not comment for this story). After a dance performance, a panel debated "The Balance Between Profit and Soul." When a writer joked he could not afford an apartmentand was still waiting for Soho Chairman Pan Shiyi to give him onethe crowd of 600 well-heeled developers, entrepreneurs, and consultants laughed appreciatively. If the bubble bursts, few will be laughing.
