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我错了, 2017年度的房价我预测的不准。。

2009-12-13
11,323
10,311
2018-01-04
#1
http://forum.iask.ca/threads/2年了没有预测房价,-今天重操旧业预测2017-2020房价。.810904/

上面是前年底的预测连接:

我估的是涨 17.8%, 结果今天的结果出来是 12.7%。:

TORONTO — The Toronto Real Estate Board says home sales in the Greater Toronto Area fell 18.3 per cent last year compared with a record pace set in 2016.

There were 92,394 sales through its MLS system in 2017, down from 113,040 in the previous year.

The board says there were record sales in the first quarter of last year, followed by a decline in the middle two quarters before sales picked up in the last three months of the year.

The average selling price for 2017 was $822,681, up 12.7 per cent compared with 2016.

The board says sales in December totalled 4,930, down from 5,305 in the final month of 2016.

The average price for the last month of 2017 was $735,021, up from $730,125 a year earlier.
 
楼主
楼主
Horse Dragoon
2009-12-13
11,323
10,311
2018-01-04
#2
主要是 5月出台了政府的打压政策, 否则可能就是我的数字了。


这是继2015 和 2016 连续涨 10% 和 17.3% 后, 又一次的 双位数涨幅,

我猜 2018年将调整到 10% 以下。
 
最后编辑: 2018-01-04
2010-09-25
466
146
2018-01-04
#11
价格的事情应该看年底的时点价格,而不是年平均价格吧?根据楼上兄弟的bloomberg数据,价格只比去年上涨了0.7%而已。

he benchmark home price index fell in December for the seventh consecutive month, down 0.2 percent from November, according to data released Thursday by the Toronto Real Estate Board. The index has fallen 8.9 percent since May -- the largest seven-month decline in the history of data going back to 2000. The average price fell 3.5 percent from the previous month to C$735,021 ($586,000) and was up just 0.7 percent from a year earlier.

http://forum.iask.ca/threads/2年了没有预测房价,-今天重操旧业预测2017-2020房价。.810904/

上面是前年底的预测连接:

我估的是涨 17.8%, 结果今天的结果出来是 12.7%。:

TORONTO — The Toronto Real Estate Board says home sales in the Greater Toronto Area fell 18.3 per cent last year compared with a record pace set in 2016.

There were 92,394 sales through its MLS system in 2017, down from 113,040 in the previous year.

The board says there were record sales in the first quarter of last year, followed by a decline in the middle two quarters before sales picked up in the last three months of the year.

The average selling price for 2017 was $822,681, up 12.7 per cent compared with 2016.

The board says sales in December totalled 4,930, down from 5,305 in the final month of 2016.

The average price for the last month of 2017 was $735,021, up from $730,125 a year earlier.
 

qxxq

园友
2010-06-03
1,752
592
2018-01-04
#13
主要是 5月出台了政府的打压政策, 否则可能就是我的数字了。


这是继2015 和 2016 连续涨 10% 和 17.3% 后, 又一次的 双位数涨幅,

我猜 2018年将调整到 10% 以下。
如果不是打压政策,可能就22%或27%了。
 
楼主
楼主
Horse Dragoon
2009-12-13
11,323
10,311
2018-01-04
#18
价格的事情应该看年底的时点价格,而不是年平均价格吧?根据楼上兄弟的bloomberg数据,价格只比去年上涨了0.7%而已。

he benchmark home price index fell in December for the seventh consecutive month, down 0.2 percent from November, according to data released Thursday by the Toronto Real Estate Board. The index has fallen 8.9 percent since May -- the largest seven-month decline in the history of data going back to 2000. The average price fell 3.5 percent from the previous month to C$735,021 ($586,000) and was up just 0.7 percent from a year earlier.

不对的, 你这个是 12月份一个月的指标价,比2016年12月份的 同比。

民间和房产局一直用平均价报告, 年度均价是 12个月的月均价乘以每个月的销量的总和, 去除以全年的销量总和,即算术平均值。