- 主题发起人 tinyhuhu
- 发布时间 2014-10-27
One of the world's leading investment banks says the benchmark price of North American oil is going to fall even further, to $70 US a barrel by next spring.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast late Sunday night for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude — the two most common types of oil used and sold in North America and Europe.
Goldman Sachs says WTI will go for $75 a barrel in the first three months of 2015. Brent, meanwhile, will change hands at $85 a barrel. Both forecasts are down $15 from what the bank was last expecting. And both are forecast to slip even lower in the second quarter — historically a seasonally low time for oil prices — before rebounding a little in the summer of 2015.
If the prediction on WTI proves correct, it will be the lowest price for North American oil since 2010, when crude was on its way higher after cratering during the recession of 2008 and 2009.
Currently, WTI is trading at about $80. That's down from more than $100 a barrel earlier this year.
The main reason the bank cited in making its call is simple supply and demand. There is more oil being produced now than the world needs, the bank says.
A boom in shale oil and gas in North America this year and last has drastically increased the amount of oil in circulation. This month, it's expected that the U.S. will pump out more crude oil than Saudi Arabia does — the first time that's been the case since the early 1970s.
Goldman says the North American oil price will average $73.75 for 2015 as a whole. Last year, the bank predicted the average price of North American oil would be $94.83 this year.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast late Sunday night for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude — the two most common types of oil used and sold in North America and Europe.
Goldman Sachs says WTI will go for $75 a barrel in the first three months of 2015. Brent, meanwhile, will change hands at $85 a barrel. Both forecasts are down $15 from what the bank was last expecting. And both are forecast to slip even lower in the second quarter — historically a seasonally low time for oil prices — before rebounding a little in the summer of 2015.
If the prediction on WTI proves correct, it will be the lowest price for North American oil since 2010, when crude was on its way higher after cratering during the recession of 2008 and 2009.
Currently, WTI is trading at about $80. That's down from more than $100 a barrel earlier this year.
The main reason the bank cited in making its call is simple supply and demand. There is more oil being produced now than the world needs, the bank says.
A boom in shale oil and gas in North America this year and last has drastically increased the amount of oil in circulation. This month, it's expected that the U.S. will pump out more crude oil than Saudi Arabia does — the first time that's been the case since the early 1970s.
Goldman says the North American oil price will average $73.75 for 2015 as a whole. Last year, the bank predicted the average price of North American oil would be $94.83 this year.
CALGARY – A heavy fog blanketed downtown Calgary Thursday morning, made gloomier by a massive, days-long power outage and an even longer stretch of freefalling oil prices, the local economy’s lifeblood.
And then it all lifted, as power was reactivated in the city core, the fog melted and markets rallied, with Canadian energy stocks regaining part of their lost value. But the psychological gloom over the long-term effects of cheap oil, and particularly its effect on higher-cost projects like those in the oil sands, is not so easily dissipated.
“I think our members will be a little bit more cautious given the price environment,” said Calgary Chamber of Commerce policy director Justin Smith.
He added that there is some uncertainty over how long the low oil prices will last. If prices stay low Mr. Smith said, “then that would have a bit more of an impact as it trickles down to the [oilfield] service companies and the secondary and tertiary business community involved in the oil and gas sector.”
Energy made up 24.6% of Alberta’s gross domestic product last year, and all but a handful of Canadian oil and gas producing companies are headquartered in Calgary. The city, and the province, has seen long-term busts before. Dreadful ones. They can cause wounds in every corner of Alberta, from property values and employment to government finances.
“Obviously if there’s a long-term slide in oil prices then that’s going to have a material impact on the office market,” said Todd Throndson, principal and managing director of commercial realty firm Avison Young.
The firm has previously published papers showing a relationship between the price of oil, natural gas and the office vacancy rate in Calgary. According to the study, when few companies are drilling new oil and gas wells, the empty office space available in the city begins to grow.
“We’ve had a lot of discussions with our clients about what they see happening and what they think is going to happen in the future. A lot of them are saying that this is just a spot-price issue,” Mr. Throndson said.
The North American benchmark price for oil, West Texas Intermediate, climbed back above US$80 per barrel Thursday to close the day at US$82.70. The global Brent benchmark price also rallied to US$85.92, which is still roughly 20% lower than its spot price in June.
Friday, Brent crude oil rose more than a dollar to around $87 a barrel.
At the same time, stock prices in Canadian energy companies regained some of their earlier losses. The S&P/TSX Energy Index rallied 3.24% by the end of the day trading day Thursday. Bloomberg data showed, however, that the index had dropped 13 per cent in the past two weeks and eliminated what value it had generated this year.
“A softening in the price isn’t wholly unexpected,” the chamber’s Mr. Smith said.
“I think what we’re hearing from our members is that we might see a little more selectivity in investment decisions, or perhaps some longer investment review times.”
Alberta Premier Jim Prentice told reporters this week that he’s concerned about the drop in oil prices, but said that the province was still expected to post a budget surplus this year. He also said the oil and gas industry is supported by strong long-term economic need for energy.
Mr. Prentice, as well as industry associations like the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, has said that the hit to the Canadian oil patch from the current drop in benchmark oil prices has been softened by a weaker Canadian dollar and a smaller differential between Canadian heavy crude and West Texas Intermediate.
Canadian oil producers have worked to improve their access to new refining markets over the last couple years by investing in oil-by-rail facilities, as Suncor Energy Inc. has done, or by shipping their bitumen down the Mississippi River by barge, as MEG Energy Corp. has done.
Those new developments, however, were all planned in an environment when a barrel of oil sold for at least 15% more than it does now — over US$100 as recently as this past summer. Thursday may have seen a fog lifting, but the optimism of those sunnier days will take a lot longer to return.
And then it all lifted, as power was reactivated in the city core, the fog melted and markets rallied, with Canadian energy stocks regaining part of their lost value. But the psychological gloom over the long-term effects of cheap oil, and particularly its effect on higher-cost projects like those in the oil sands, is not so easily dissipated.
“I think our members will be a little bit more cautious given the price environment,” said Calgary Chamber of Commerce policy director Justin Smith.
He added that there is some uncertainty over how long the low oil prices will last. If prices stay low Mr. Smith said, “then that would have a bit more of an impact as it trickles down to the [oilfield] service companies and the secondary and tertiary business community involved in the oil and gas sector.”
Energy made up 24.6% of Alberta’s gross domestic product last year, and all but a handful of Canadian oil and gas producing companies are headquartered in Calgary. The city, and the province, has seen long-term busts before. Dreadful ones. They can cause wounds in every corner of Alberta, from property values and employment to government finances.
“Obviously if there’s a long-term slide in oil prices then that’s going to have a material impact on the office market,” said Todd Throndson, principal and managing director of commercial realty firm Avison Young.
The firm has previously published papers showing a relationship between the price of oil, natural gas and the office vacancy rate in Calgary. According to the study, when few companies are drilling new oil and gas wells, the empty office space available in the city begins to grow.
“We’ve had a lot of discussions with our clients about what they see happening and what they think is going to happen in the future. A lot of them are saying that this is just a spot-price issue,” Mr. Throndson said.
The North American benchmark price for oil, West Texas Intermediate, climbed back above US$80 per barrel Thursday to close the day at US$82.70. The global Brent benchmark price also rallied to US$85.92, which is still roughly 20% lower than its spot price in June.
Friday, Brent crude oil rose more than a dollar to around $87 a barrel.
At the same time, stock prices in Canadian energy companies regained some of their earlier losses. The S&P/TSX Energy Index rallied 3.24% by the end of the day trading day Thursday. Bloomberg data showed, however, that the index had dropped 13 per cent in the past two weeks and eliminated what value it had generated this year.
“A softening in the price isn’t wholly unexpected,” the chamber’s Mr. Smith said.
“I think what we’re hearing from our members is that we might see a little more selectivity in investment decisions, or perhaps some longer investment review times.”
Alberta Premier Jim Prentice told reporters this week that he’s concerned about the drop in oil prices, but said that the province was still expected to post a budget surplus this year. He also said the oil and gas industry is supported by strong long-term economic need for energy.
Mr. Prentice, as well as industry associations like the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, has said that the hit to the Canadian oil patch from the current drop in benchmark oil prices has been softened by a weaker Canadian dollar and a smaller differential between Canadian heavy crude and West Texas Intermediate.
Canadian oil producers have worked to improve their access to new refining markets over the last couple years by investing in oil-by-rail facilities, as Suncor Energy Inc. has done, or by shipping their bitumen down the Mississippi River by barge, as MEG Energy Corp. has done.
Those new developments, however, were all planned in an environment when a barrel of oil sold for at least 15% more than it does now — over US$100 as recently as this past summer. Thursday may have seen a fog lifting, but the optimism of those sunnier days will take a lot longer to return.
房子应该降了，太虚高了，按理说凭啥比美国的房价高呢。
油价，没有问题，本国经济和加币，那就摊上大事了。
一个利好。。
http://www.iask.ca/news/canada/2014/10/296398.html
到渥太华出席遇袭死亡加国军人丧礼的美国国务卿克里(John Kerry)，Oct 28日在记者会上表示，延宕已久的基石XL(Keystone XL)油管计画，将尽快作出决定。
克里与加国外长白鄂德(John Baird)28日举行会谈後，在联合记者会表示，他确实希望作出决定是快比迟好，但强调不能说明确实的日期。他也重申了美加两国在安全领域方面加强合作。
加拿大早於2008年提出这项投资54亿元的建议，利用油管将亚省的原油输到美国海湾地区炼油厂，尽管美国国务院通过环评结果，但总统奥巴马始终未最後拍板。
在会谈及记者会前，克里在白鄂德陪同下，到国会山的战争纪念碑献上花圈，哀悼遇袭身亡的加拿大军人席利洛(Nathan Cirillo)及文森(Patrice Vincent)表示哀悼。
http://www.iask.ca/news/canada/2014/10/296398.html
到渥太华出席遇袭死亡加国军人丧礼的美国国务卿克里(John Kerry)，Oct 28日在记者会上表示，延宕已久的基石XL(Keystone XL)油管计画，将尽快作出决定。
克里与加国外长白鄂德(John Baird)28日举行会谈後，在联合记者会表示，他确实希望作出决定是快比迟好，但强调不能说明确实的日期。他也重申了美加两国在安全领域方面加强合作。
加拿大早於2008年提出这项投资54亿元的建议，利用油管将亚省的原油输到美国海湾地区炼油厂，尽管美国国务院通过环评结果，但总统奥巴马始终未最後拍板。
在会谈及记者会前，克里在白鄂德陪同下，到国会山的战争纪念碑献上花圈，哀悼遇袭身亡的加拿大军人席利洛(Nathan Cirillo)及文森(Patrice Vincent)表示哀悼。
油价跌破页岩油的成本价，美国也不会同意的,所以根本不用担心，油砂和页岩油的成本价差不多。
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