开一帖讨论：Cameco (CCO/CCJ)

[eflee]

首先，介绍一下Cameco前世今生：

Every time I look at Cameco Corporation (TSX:CCO)(NYSE:CCJ), I can’t help but feel like the bottom has been found and that the company will begin to turn around. And then another month or two goes by, I look at the company again, and it’s even lower.

Despite all of this, I remain bullish on the company for a multitude of reasons. But, unfortunately, to be bullish on Cameco is to be bullish on uranium, which has experienced tremendous lows ever since the Fukushima disaster back in March 2011. For reference, the spot price of uranium that month was a little over US$60. Fast forward to September and the spot price is only US$23. Naturally, if the price of the resource is down, Cameco has to be down as well.

But there are far too many market conditions that point to the price of uranium going far higher, and that leads me to believe that this will be an incredible investment. The question is, should you invest now or put your money in other places while you wait?

 

[eflee]

写得相当不错，可以表达当前的情况：

There are currently 61 nuclear reactors in construction. There are another 170 reactors that have started the planning process or are nearing construction. As these reactors come online, management will have to buy multiple years’ worth of uranium to ensure that operations run smoothly. That is going to have a serious impact on demand.

China and India (which recently signed deals with Cameco) will determine whether uranium skyrockets or not. India currently generates 6,000 megawatts of electricity from nuclear power, but it wants to increase that to 45,000 by 2035. And China is even better. It currently generates about 2% of its power from nuclear, yet it’s one of the six-largest nuclear countries in the world. By 2030, it wants to generate 30% of power from nuclear.

So as the demand continues to improve, we should expect the price of uranium to follow.

But supply still needs to be managed better. First, the secondary market is still rather robust. So when a nuclear reactor needs uranium, rather than signing a long-term deal with a producer, it just buys from a stockpile. But as these stockpiles dwindle, the reactors will have no choice but to buy from the producers in long-term deals.

The other supply concern is that there are a lot of producers. Fortunately, because it has remained so unprofitable to mine uranium (save, of course, for Cameco, which is a low cost miner), many of these suppliers will just slow down. And when demand becomes even greater, these suppliers won’t be in a position to help. It can take years to get a new uranium mine up and running, so if demand moves quicker than new supply, we might see a supply squeeze, thus sending the price of uranium far higher.

All in all, I am very bullish on both uranium and Cameco. The only problem is we don’t know when the bad news will turn good. Therefore, it might be better to put your money into other companies and let it grow before buying Cameco. But if you don’t want to time the market, these prices are really quite low.

 

[maomao88]

楼主的英文水平好高啊，好多单词都不认识，了不起，赞一个

 

[arenafox]

cco看看9.4

 

[周日寧靜]

跟樓主搵食, 沒錯

 

[joesir]

谢谢分享，公司股价目前技术面看也不错, 和行业整体挺有联系。如果有核电行业的相关信息希望也能分享比如其它主要竞争对手

 

[hankgong]

不是说跟税务局还有官司要打么？明年才出来结果，到时候再买也不迟。而且现在买了要long5年10年也太久了吧，其他的股票多得是呀。

 

[eflee]

楼主的英文水平好高啊，好多单词都不认识，了不起，赞一个

我很少写文章，大多数从阅读的东西里copy/paste

 

[eflee]

不是说跟税务局还有官司要打么？明年才出来结果，到时候再买也不迟。而且现在买了要long5年10年也太久了吧，其他的股票多得是呀。

这位同学也很有研究哦。

确实如此，有大概2B的税务问题。我觉得当前股价已经反应了这个预期。

现在也不知道结果何时出来，判决如何。

只要公司还有现金流，能继续维持运作不垮，就考虑入一些当长期投资吧。

若CCO垮了，NXE就发了。所以建议捆绑打包，蛋不能放一个篮子：）

 

[eflee]

铀价格应该是探底了。

什么时候回升还要参照炭、油和气等发电能源的价格。

看好印度和美国拉升能源需求。

 

[eflee]

跟樓主搵食, 沒錯

我觉得啊，目前这股还是有一定风险的。

虽知道，TCK我抄底也是从$16开始的啊，一直抄到$5。（还算好，股票没垮掉）

你能忍受几万块钱，-40%以上的亏损吗？

以自己comfortable zone为准。

 

[joesir]

我觉得啊，目前这股还是有一定风险的。

虽知道，TCK我抄底也是从$16开始的啊，一直抄到$5。（还算好，股票没垮掉）

你能忍受几万块钱，-40%以上的亏损吗？

以自己comfortable zone为准。

那你可真有定力，不过还是有个止损比较好

 

[eflee]

那你可真有定力，不过还是有个止损比较好

是啊，每个人都有自己的炒股风格。

盘面小于10亿的股我极少去碰。资源和黄金是有底的，我也一般做ETF操作。

这TCK我09年开始操作的，所以有一定的了解和信心。当你研究后发现，以前ETF持有TOP 10有TCK的时候，近期都没有的话。一旦TCK反转，基金补货的势头，是势不可挡的。

 

[tsdj]

我少进了点。但应该是长线的。铀的需求毕竟太小

 

[eflee]

提醒一下，铀矿有个URA的ETF基金，不过成交量比较低，适合长线和保守人士。

 

[eflee]

Cameco’s profit beats estimates on higher uranium sales

Canadian uranium producer Cameco Corp on Wednesday reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit, largely helped by a jump in uranium sales volumes.

Cameco’s uranium sales rose 35 per cent to 9.3 million pounds in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, while its average realized uranium price fell 0.6 per cent to $43.37 (U.S.) per pound.

Cameco reported a net profit of $142-million (Canadian), or 36 cents per share, attributable to equity holders in the quarter, compared with a loss of $4-million, or 1 cent per share, a year earlier.

Excluding items, the company earned 30 cents per share, beating the average analyst estimate of 28 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Revenue rose 3.2 per cent to $670-million, beating analysts’ expectation of $654.9-million.

 

[hankgong]

Cameco’s profit beats estimates on higher uranium sales

Canadian uranium producer Cameco Corp on Wednesday reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit, largely helped by a jump in uranium sales volumes.

Cameco’s uranium sales rose 35 per cent to 9.3 million pounds in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, while its average realized uranium price fell 0.6 per cent to $43.37 (U.S.) per pound.

Cameco reported a net profit of $142-million (Canadian), or 36 cents per share, attributable to equity holders in the quarter, compared with a loss of $4-million, or 1 cent per share, a year earlier.

Excluding items, the company earned 30 cents per share, beating the average analyst estimate of 28 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Revenue rose 3.2 per cent to $670-million, beating analysts’ expectation of $654.9-million.

OK. Today its price went up for 10%. Did you buy it?

 

[eflee]

OK. Today its price went up for 10%. Did you buy it?

早上起来已经升了5.3%了，随即加了些仓。

 

[hankgong]

OK, good luck for you. I'm not sure the big trend of the coming stock market. I decide to hold for now.

早上起来已经升了5.3%了，随即加了些仓。

 

[eflee]

OK, good luck for you. I'm not sure the big trend of the coming stock market. I decide to hold for now.

yeah, make your own decision.