BC省的投资地产前景

本帖由 IloveHalifax5 天前 发布。版面名称:新闻评论

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  1. IloveHalifax

    IloveHalifax 知名园友

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  2. 千客万来

    千客万来 知名园友

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    哈妹子想投资BC地产啦?其他不说,BC是加拿大最适宜人类居住的地方,房价高也是可以理解的。
     
    千客万来, 通过 家园移动版发帖, 5 天前
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  3. 沧水

    沧水 园友

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    来居住任何时候都可以,投资房地产吗,就呵呵了。加行的加息行为肯定还会有连续的几次。任何一个国家,央行加息和房子持续涨价并存,是不可能出现的事情,因为这两件事是矛盾的。当然 JJ 会认为,持续加息下房子依然还会涨价的,呵呵,他们自己信不信呢?也许信吧,呵呵
     
  4. 小和尚

    小和尚 最爱妹的小和尚

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    偏远乡村(小猫的理想)(缺失考虑下一代的教育)
    冻土严寒(蕾娜爹的喜好)(缺失考虑运动的便利和能源消耗引起的政府开销)
    离亚洲远(哈法的楼主)(如果只增加几个飞行小时可以克服,没有考虑羊群效应,中国人少)
    最终却形成了一股投资BC的浪潮,殊途同归。
     
    最后编辑: 5 天前
    小和尚, 通过 家园移动版发帖, 5 天前
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  5. smartwarm

    smartwarm 活跃园友

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    通过加拿大与美国房价对比,金融博客Zerohedge认为,加拿大房价进一步下跌的空间还很大。下图可见1975年至2016年加拿大与美国实际房价走势对比,数据来自美国达拉斯联储。



    [​IMG]


    美国媒体上月指出,金融危机期间加拿大房价的降幅比美国小得多,下跌比美国短暂得多,到了经济复苏期,房价涨幅又比美国大得多,涨势持久得多。

    一边是房价上涨势不可挡,一边是家庭债务与收入之比逼近创纪录高位,在这种情况下,一旦形势逆转,加拿大的房产泡沫就会让人恐怖。
     
    smartwarm, 通过 家园移动版发帖, 5 天前
    #5
    已获得秦砖汉瓦的赞。
  6. 淘金热

    淘金热 活跃园友

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    把加拿大和整个美国类比,当然房价比美国高。因为加拿大可居住的地区这么几个。美国什么texas州,大把大把的土地可供居住。房价自然被拉低了。但是把加拿大同等城市和美国同等城市比,美国的房价并不比加拿大低,甚至比加拿大高。
    拿温哥华和旧金山,洛杉矶对比,温的房价远远低于他们。把多伦多和纽约比,远远不如纽约。而且这还是加币是美金八折的情况下。说加拿大房价比美国高,很不公平
     
  7. IloveHalifax

    IloveHalifax 知名园友

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    It’s always financially better for someone to own their primary residence, over the long term. A home is shelter and the need for one is usually enough to ride out market instability. But for investors, selling high is always the priority. And in my opinion, prices are not going any higher, the never-ending surge is about to end. The perfect storm is brewing, and it’s time to seek shelter.

    Provincial government policy

    Our real estate market and provincial government policy are tightly connected. The previous government lost their majority this past election because they had zero credibility on the biggest issue in the Lower Mainland: housing affordability. Provincial policy is going to change and that will affect the market.

    The new NDP minority government will likely take the recommendations of the BC Housing Affordability Fund. They will introduce a property levy on owners who don’t file an income tax return in British Columbia. The pre-sale foreign-buyer tax loophole will be closed. Using a bare trust to avoid property transfer tax will be closed. The sub-prime mortgage scheme will be halted. The foreign-buyer tax could be doubled to 30 per cent and implemented province-wide. Closing these loopholes and taxing non-resident ownership is in the public interest.

    Just look out east, to Toronto. Since their government introduced 16 measures in April to cool the market, prices have fallen 14 per cent in two months. Sales are down 37 per cent, new listings up 16 per cent and active listings are up 60 per cent. This is a government influencing market affordability effectively and instantly.

    The regulatory framework in B.C. currently favours real estate developers, investors and speculation. I’m expecting that framework to be flipped on its head.

    Population and income numbers

    The recent census shows the population of Vancouver increased 4.6 per cent from 2011 to 2016. Real estate prices? They increased 74.7 per cent from January, 2011, to today. Vancouver is a city with physical geographic boundaries, but that’s a numerical difference that just doesn’t add up. Five-per-cent yearly growth is considered a hot market. Twenty per cent a year as we’ve experienced over the last three years is unnatural and unsustainable.

    Local incomes are so far detached from real estate prices it’s laughable. Household income in Vancouver is 22nd in Canada, at $67,090 a year. With 20 per cent down, that can afford a $550,000 property, approximately. The average price in Vancouver is more than double that at $1,233,200. Average household income in Ottawa is $94,700, first in Canada, and average property price is around $436,625. Average household income in Calgary is $89,490, second in Canada, and average property price is around $441,500. What’s the difference?

    Everyone knows the answer: it’s because there is a lot of overseas money held in Vancouver real estate. It’s been encouraged on a local, provincial and federal level since Expo ’86, and has seen an unprecedented acceleration since the Olympics in 2010. It’s just reality, and the truth is just the truth.

    Higher interest rates

    This week, Canada was faced with its first federal interest rate hike since mid-2015. Our U.S. neighbours have been steadily raising their interest rates. The federal interest rate is, in part, a competition for investor money to come into the government via the selling of bonds. When the U.S. government is offering a higher rate than ours, bond investors will choose to invest in the U.S. economy over Canada. Currently, the U.S. federal interest rate is between 1 per cent and 1.25 per cent.

    The U.S. economy is doing well. Job numbers and wages are up, and speculation is that they will continue to increase rates to counteract the inflation that coincides with improved numbers. The Federal Reserve in the United States has forecast another two increases in 2017, so is there any way Canada can not follow suit? No, there isn’t.

    End of price appreciation

    A change in provincial government, incomes detached from prices, population numbers that don’t justify growth and higher interest rates are all imminent threats to the Vancouver real estate market. With a nearly 60-per-cent appreciation over the past three years completely and obviously unsustainable, the time is now to cash out. If you are over exposed, seek shelter now.

    Barry Magee is a Vancouver realtor.

    我转贴这篇文章的用意是作者对BC省的投资地产前景评轮,有没有一定的道理?我个人认为他讲的有一定的道理。但我不住在BC,并不了解当地的经济情况或进一步说无法身厉其境的感受到当地的经济情况。所以希望住在BC的同学们能够根据作者所说的几个论点,谈谈自己的看法。而且不要误会我会投资BC省的地产,我的做法是投资在地产公司的股票上,并不直接拥有地产,除了自己住的房子。
     
  8. smartwarm

    smartwarm 活跃园友

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    那張圖沒有顯示出來,圖上應該是比較的平均房價。那副圖意思是長期看加美的房價基本是一致的,但次貸危機以後大幅背離了。

    我個人是相信某個時候加美的房價會再靠近,是美國的房價漲得快或者是加拿大的房價下跌,哪個途徑讓兩地房價靠近現在看不清楚。
     
    smartwarm, 通过 家园移动版发帖, 5 天前
    #8
  9. smartwarm

    smartwarm 活跃园友

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    IMG_3682.PNG 屏幕拷貝一個試試
     
    smartwarm, 通过 家园移动版发帖, 5 天前
    #9
  10. zlure8

    zlure8 园友

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    一本万利人傻钱多速来炒。
     
  11. gonghaiyong

    gonghaiyong 园友

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    我不明白,文章是认为房价不会再上涨,所以推荐现在买房。但是买涨不买跌大众心理,投资不就是倒着来吗?
    其实我认为温哥华房价是否上涨要看世界尤其中国经济是否企稳上升。
     
    gonghaiyong, 通过 家园移动版发帖, 5 天前
    #11
  12. IloveHalifax

    IloveHalifax 知名园友

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    作者并没有推荐现在买房,他的结论是Cash Out。
     
  13. gonghaiyong

    gonghaiyong 园友

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    got you, 是为卖房后的钱寻找shelter,不是为人!
     
    gonghaiyong, 通过 家园移动版发帖, 4 天前
    #13