回复: 怎样分析经济就业报告
EVANS劝投资人小心贷款置换的ｅｂ－５项目，因为有被移民局否决的风险。你做为中介偏偏把投资人推上贼船，居心叵测
看看南州风电项目的投资人怎么对付你了。
EVANS劝投资人小心贷款置换的ｅｂ－５项目，因为有被移民局否决的风险。你做为中介偏偏把投资人推上贼船，居心叵测
看看南州风电项目的投资人怎么对付你了。Finally, please note that in general, you cannot use construction
expenditures that took place before the EB-5 application has been filed. This is
another gray area, but to be on the safe side, you should follow this guideline.
Immigrant investors -- and hence their lawyers and EB-5
developers -- may also meet this requirement by showing that the total amount
of construction expenditures, and the total amount of gross (top-line) revenues
that have been achieved are equal to or greater than the amount of
expenditures or revenues that were stated in the original proposal.
因为EB-5绿卡是就业绿卡而不是商业风险绿卡。很多投资人，中介，甚至一些项目方都没有认识到就业报告对投资人得到829绿卡的重要性。有些负责任的项目方有决心去帮投资人申请永久绿卡成功，但没有掌握到正确的方式。这是我昨天与MILLER MAYER律师所的律师及项目方代表电话会议的讨论的问题。
现在开个贴子和投资人来研究一下就业报告的分析。欢迎投资人提深入的问题，切磋。
以下的文章是从著名的EB-5经济学家MICHAEL EVANS的网站摘贴的。他的讲解比较易懂。
How the EB-5 Program Works
Overview
The primary purpose of the program is to attract foreign investment to the U.S.,
which will create new jobs. From an economic viewpoint, the key requirement is
that each investment must create a minimum of 10 new jobs.
In some cases, the foreign party must invest a minimum of $1 million, while in
other cases, the minimum is $500,000. The smaller number applies if the
investment is located in (a) an area of high unemployment, currently defined as
more than 150% of the national average unemployment rate for 2010, or (b) a
rural area, currently defined as an area that is not in an MSA and is not within a
municipality with population of over 20,000.
Most of the EB-5 applications we have analyzed are based on the underlying
assumption of a $500,000 investment per individual.
How are the 10 jobs per investor calculated? In some cases, only direct jobs
can be counted the jobs that are actually created by the new businesses that
are started. In other cases, indirect and induced jobs can also be counted. For
that to occur, the plan must include the formation of an EB-5 regional center,
which requires additional paperwork, documentation, and economic analysis.
However, because the job multipliers are usually at least 2, the incentives to
form a regional center apply in almost all cases. We focus exclusively on those
cases where regional centers are created.
The comments here apply to the economic analysis. You will also need an
immigration lawyer to prepare the requisite documents, and a local lawyer to
prepare the private placement memorandum.
Which model to use -- IMPLAN or RIMS II?
There are several different input/output models accepted by the USCIS, but
the two major ones are IMPLAN and RIMS II. The principal difference is that
IMPLAN is an employment-driven model, while RIMS II is an output-drive model.
To the non-economist, this may seem like a distinction without a difference.
And in fact, the total number of jobs that are created as calculated by these two
models is usually fairly similar. The big difference occurs at the verification
stage.
After the proposal has been submitted, it takes the USCIS several months to
issue a decision. Once the approval has been obtained, individual immigrant
investors must then file an I-526 petition, requesting a temporary green card.
This process also usually takes several months. Once that is approved,
another two years elapse. At that point, the immigrant investor files an I-829
petition requesting removal of the conditions on the temporary green card -- in
other words, permission for the green card to become permanent. It is at that
stage that the investor must show that 10 permanent new jobs have been
created by the investment that was made at the beginning of the process.
This requirement has led many investors -- and some EB-5 developers -- to
assume that in fact they must produce documentary evidence for all direct
permanent full-time jobs in the form of W-2s, I-9s, and quarterly payroll tax
records. That is indeed one way to meet this requirement. BUT IT IS NOT
THE ONLY WAY. Immigrant investors -- and hence their lawyers and EB-5
developers -- may also meet this requirement by showing that the total amount
of construction expenditures, and the total amount of gross (top-line) revenues
that have been achieved are equal to or greater than the amount of
expenditures or revenues that were stated in the original proposal. In other
words, verification can be made on expenditures and revenues as well as direct
employees. If this latter method is used, then the economist uses the RIMS II
input/output model for the economic impact analysis calculations.
Thus each EB-5 developer, at the time of the original application, must
determine which method is likely to be superior for verification at the I-829 level.
An overwhelming majority of our clients have recently chosen the RIMS II model
for the following reasons:
1. Verification of full-time workers may be difficult. Each employee must work
35 hours a week every week. In USCIS arithmetic, two half-time employees do
not equal 1 full-time employee. They equal 0 full-time employees. This is
particularly critical for construction jobs, and for seasonal and part-time jobs that
are likely to occur in such industries as hotels, resorts, or retail sales.
2. All newly hired employees must be U.S. citizens. We assume that no one
would deliberately skirt this requirement. On the other hand, illegal immigrants
may obtain false papers. If the USCIS, with its deeper knowledge and data base
of illegal immigrants, determines that false papers have been used, the
developer has no recourse, and the I-829 petition will be denied.
3. Although the USCIS has repeatedly stated that it accepts a variety of
recognized input/output model, the USCIS economist recently reiterated her
position that she prefers the RIMS II model because of its greater transparency.
Thus unless clients specifically state that they prefer the IMPLAN model and
its direct employment approach, we will use the RIMS II model in our economic
impact calculations.
A Generic Example -- Retail Shopping Center
To understand how the economic analysis works, consider the following generic
example. A foreign investor plans to build a retail shopping center of 100,000
square feet. The construction costs will vary substantially depending on the
location and type of buildings, but for purposes of this example, assume that the
actual “hard” construction costs are $100 per square foot. Total costs, including
soft costs, profits, and land purchases, are $200 per square foot. We make this
distinction because, as will be explained below, the hard costs have some input
into the total job count, whereas the other costs do not.
The total hard construction cost is $10 million. This figure is multiplied by the
RIMS II final demand multiplier for construction, which varies widely by region
and can range anywhere from 5 to 20, although it is usually in the 10-15 range.
Suppose it is 15. That means 150 total jobs would be created from construction
activity, PROVIDING that all construction jobs can be counted.
In many cases they cannot. The USCIS has ruled that for projects taking less
than 2 years to complete, only the indirect and induced jobs can be counted.
They are usually 1/3 to 1/2 of the total jobs. If the projects really do take more
than 2 years, all jobs can be counted. However, in that case, the USCIS will
require a timeline showing the expected expenditures each quarter. Do not be
tempted to pretend that, for example, an 18-month project takes 2 years simply
by stretching out the last 1% over a 6-month period. In general, a bell-shaped
curve for expenditures would be appropriate.
The actual sales per square foot will be based on the mix of stores and the
location, but assume that the average is $500 per square foot. That would be a
total of $50 million in sales. Here again, the RIMS II multiplier varies widely by
region, but an average figure would be about 8. On this basis, 400 permanent
new jobs would be created from the operations of the retail space. If all
construction jobs are permanent, a total of 550 jobs would be created in this
particular example.
Since the EB-5 regulations require a minimum of 10 jobs per investor, that
means there will be a maximum of 55 investors in this project. If each one puts
up $500,000, the developer could raise up to $27.5 million, which would more
than cover the $20 million total costs. However, it is always advisable to leave
a cushion of 10% to 20% in case the sales goals are not met by the time the I-
829 petition is filed.
Actual cases will vary from this example. They depend, among other things, on
the following parameters. All of these vary by the region chosen.
1. Cost of construction, per square foot
2. RIMS II final demand multiplier for construction
3. Mix of buildings constructed (big box stores, specialty shops, restaurants)
4. Mix of retail stores (including restaurants)
5. Sales per square foot for each type of establishment
6. RIMS II final demand multiplier for retail sales
All these data must be calculated separately for each individual project. The
numbers are based on the RIMS II model, Census data, national and regional
survey data, construction costs manuals, and individual research for specific
projects. The numbers must be collected separately for each project and are
not just “pulled off the shelf”.
What are indirect and induced jobs?
Indirect jobs are created when the business buys goods and services from local
firms. For example, a construction firm might buy some of its materials locally, or
purchase locally produced doors and windows or roof tiles. A retail store would
buy some of its goods from wholesalers. It would probably hire outside firms for
building maintenance, waste management, and security. Also, it would probably
hire accountants, attorneys, and other professional business services.
Induced jobs are created when the employees of the new business spend part
of their paychecks on locally produced goods and services. That would
ordinarily include purchases at supermarkets and gas stations, banking and real
estate services, and health care.
How big should the regional center be?
It can range from a single project in a single location to a wide variety of projects
covering an entire state. Currently, regional EB-5 centers exist for the states of
Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, and Texas, as well as smaller states
such as Vermont and South Dakota. The amount of investment per regional
center currently ranges from under $5 million to over $100 million.
A distinction must be drawn, however, between the area covered by the regional
center and the area used for calculating the employment multipliers. That area
generally covers about four or five counties based on the pattern of where
people live and work. Suppose, for example, a new project would be built in Ft.
Lauderdale, FL. The employment multiplier would then include those counties
where people live who work in Ft. Lauderdale; data on commuting patterns are
available from the Census. In general, the counties are included that account
for 90% to 95% of the total workforce of that county; in this example, the
regional multipliers would be based on Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
If too few counties are included, then the induced effects jobs created as new
employees spend part of their paychecks locally would be understated. If too
wide a region is included, the job multipliers would be overstated, and for that
reason would probably be rejected by USCIS. Hence it is important to calculate
the employment multipliers separately for each individual project, even if there
are many such projects spread over a much larger area for the total regional
center.
Determining Areas of High Unemployment
In some cases, entire counties will qualify because the unemployment rate is
more than 150% of the national average. However, it is more often the case
that the chosen area has a somewhat lower unemployment rate, but certain
Census Tracts in the city or county have a sufficiently high unemployment rate
to qualify as a Targeted Economic Area (TEA). In some cases, the governor of
the state will provide such a list. In other cases, we calculate the TEAs based
on unemployment and poverty statistics taken from Census data.
There has been quite a bit of confusion about what areas qualify for a TEA.
In a few cases, such as the state of Nevada for 2010, and a few urban counties
in California and Florida, the unemployment rate exceeds the threshold level for
2010, which is 14.4%, so any location in Nevada, or in these high-
unemployment counties, may be used. In general, however, that is not the
case. The usual default position is to calculate the unemployment rate by
individual census tract.
While the BLS publishes monthly data on the unemployment rate for
individual counties, and all cities with a population of over 20,000, the only
unemployment rate data by Census Tract is for 2000. Hence these figures must
be updated to 2010, using the Census Share method as explained in the Local
Area Unemployment Statistics handbook. We will do these calculations for you.
For any given address, we will determine whether the Census Tract where the
planned facility will be located is a TEA. If it is, no further analysis is needed.
However, it is more likely that the planned facility is NOT in a TEA. In that
case, we will attempt to construct a TEA by combining that census tract with
contiguous census tracts that have higher unemployment rates, such that the
average unemployment rate in the combined area exceeds 14.4%. We will also
undertake that calculation as part of our economic impact analysis report.
Some states will then certify these results by writing a letter stating that the
appropriately authorized agency of the state has verified that the area in
question is a TEA. Some states, such as Florida and New York, are very helpful
about writing such letters. California used to be helpful, but we were recently
informed that due to budget cutbacks, they might not be able to provide that
service any more. Many other states have been unwilling or unable to provide
such certification.
One final word about TEAs as they apply to rural locations. Your definition
of "rural" may not be the same as the Census Bureau. Any county that is part of
a metropolitan statistical area may not be considered rural, even if in fact the
location you have chosen is devoid of population and overrun with scrub brush.
You have to be outside an MSA to get the rural definition. Furthermore, even in
rural counties, any city with a population of 20,000 or more will not qualify as a
TEA based on the rural definition.
What kind of businesses qualify?
Virtually any legitimate business qualifies for which at least 10 permanent new
full-time jobs are created per investor. It can be in manufacturing, retail trade,
services, non-profit, research and development, or agriculture. Some of the
businesses that have recently been approved include hotels, retail shopping
centers and restaurants, office buildings, warehouses, manufacturing plants,
research facilities, community centers, hospitals and nursing homes, farms,
movie production, inland port facilities, lumber mills, forestry projects, and
aquaculture.
However, a few caveats apply:
1. The EB-5 regulations actually state that the contributions of each investor
must create 10 new OR SAVED jobs. Hence in certain cases, rehabbing an old
structure might also qualify if the existing jobs would have disappeared. In
general, however, this is more difficult to show, and most EB-5 projects work
best either with new construction, or with rehabbing old buildings that are
currently vacant.
2. In general, residential buildings don’t work, unless they are combined with
others. The problem is that residences create very few direct jobs, and only
indirect and induced construction jobs can be counted. In general, residential
construction projects supply less than half of the jobs needed to meet the EB-5
target. You have to be able to borrow more than 50% of the funding in order to
make residential projects work.
3. The 10 new jobs must represent a net increase. For example, suppose
someone builds a new shopping center next to an old one, and people start
shopping at the new place, so the old one closes down and people lose their
jobs. In that case, the total net effect would be a lot smaller than the number of
new jobs at the new shopping center. The report must also to show there will
not be a net loss of jobs elsewhere in the region when this new project opens.
The Concept of a Regional Multiplier
Not all multipliers are created equal. Some models generate larger multipliers
for any given project. Yet all of the basic input/output data come from the same
source, namely the Commerce Department. How could the results be different?
There are two major answers to this question: geography and timing.
The entire concept of a regional center is built around the idea that jobs will be
created in a fairly narrowly defined region near the area where the new business
is started. Generally that is a few contiguous counties. It is definitely not the
entire state. And it is certainly not other parts of the country that have no
geographical connection to the regional center.
In general, the economic multipliers for a state are greater than a four-county
region, and the multipliers for the U.S. are much greater than for an individual
state. In the past, some EB-5 studies have relied on those larger multipliers to
get the job count higher -- and some of them were accepted. In the past year,
however, USCIS has made it clear that methodology will not be accepted, and
have rejected these approaches.
In terms of timing, other modeling processes use the methodology of a
dynamic multiplier. In short, the idea here is that when a new business is
started, more people will move into the area; that in turn will result in more new
homes and shopping centers being built, which will create even more jobs, and
so on. A variant of this approach is the "tourist" model, in which a new hotel,
casino, amusement park, ski slope, etc. will not only create new direct and
indirect jobs as defined by the input/output model but will attract many tourists
who will then spend additional dollars on food, gifts, and tourist services, hence
boosting the job creation figure substantially.
In fact such developments might occur. However, anyone planning to start an
EB-5 regional center should be aware that the USCIS has different rules for
counting jobs than are usually applied to economic impact analyses. For
example, direct construction jobs are usually not counted (see below). Also,
jobs must be full-time; full-time equivalents are not permitted. Only jobs held by
citizens can be counted. And, with respect to multiplier analysis, only the
indirect and induced jobs generated by the direct activity of the new business
can be counted. In short, no super-multipliers need apply.
What About Distressed Properties?
Many EB-5 prospects are asking about purchasing distressed properties at 1/3
or 1/4 of the previously assessed value, finding tenants for these properties, and
then reselling them later at a substantial profit. In the meantime, because the
cost of purchase is so low, substantial income and also be earned on the rents
received before they are sold.
Is this an appropriate model for the EB-5 program? As usual, the answer is "it all
depends" but here are some guidelines to help you make a decision.
1. If it is an existing building, there won't be any jobs generated by new
construction. However (see the next topic) that may not be a negative, because
the USCIS often takes a jaundiced view of counting temporary construction jobs.
2. You will only get credit for new jobs, so for practical purposes the building
should be nearly or completely vacant. You need the job credits by filling up the
buildings with new tenants. If there are existing jobs there, you can only count
them if you can prove they are part of a troubled business, which is often difficult
to show.
3. Many new jobs can be created from retail, office, and industrial buildings; far
less from residential. For practical purposes, there will be a few jobs from
operating the residences, but the numbers only work out if you can buy the
properties with substantial leverage (e.g., only 20% from EB-5 money, the rest
borrowed from banks).
4. You want to be in a TEA; however, if the building is vacant, it may well be in
a high-unemployment area, so this is not generally a very high hurdle.
5. In summary, then, you want to buy a vacant retail, office, or industrial building
at 1/3 to 1/4 of its previously assessed value, find new tenants, collect the rents,
and then sell out for a substantial profit in the next five years.
6. And now for the tough part: virtually every client asks us, how can I write a
business plan and have you generate an economic report if I don't have the
properties yet? I need EB-5 money to pay for them, so it seems like a chicken
and egg problem. So here's the answer. Choose several likely properties and
get USCIS approval on that basis. You will then be approved for those specific
industries. If the properties fall through, you can then file an amendment for the
specific property that is different from the one you orginially planned to
purchase. Thie method is OK with USCIS as long as you inform them of the
change.
How are Construction Jobs Counted?
We are probably asked that question more than any other. In general, it is
always permissible to count the indirect and induced jobs from construction
activity. These are calculated using the Expenditure Model. If, for example,
construction expenditures for hard costs are $15 million, and output per
construction worker in the county where the building is being constructed is
$150,000, then 100 direct jobs would be created. These can't be counted, but
the indirect and induced jobs, based on the IMPLAN multiplier, can be counted.
The USCIS has ruled that if the construction project takes at least 2 years,
direct jobs can also be counted. However, in order to use this method, you must
show that the jobs are permanent. It is the position, rather than the person, that
is important here. For example, if you were building a residential construction
development with 100 homes, and an electrician worked (say) 2 weeks on each
house but was employed continuously for 2 years, the job could be counted.
Also, if two different electricians worked over this time span, the job could still be
counted as long as the employment was continuous. By comparison, if you are
building a shopping center and the site excavation team works for 4 months, the
electricians for 6 months, the plumbers for 5 months, and so on, all those jobs
would be considered temporary and could not be counted.
Also, if you decide to use direct jobs, you must be able to produce W-2 and I-9
forms for each employee. Some contractors are reluctant to supply that
information.
The bottom line here is that unless you need the direct construction jobs to
raise enough money, it is better not to count them. The major exception to this
rule is for residential projects, where the workers go from one house (or condo,
or apartment) to another over a period of several years. In those cases, we
have been successful in counting direct jobs.
A few other caveats: only hard construction costs can be counted. Yes,
architects and engineers do represent new job positions, but they are included
in the IMPLAN model in indirect jobs. Double-counting is not permitted.
Finally, please note that in general, you cannot use construction
expenditures that took place before the EB-5 application has been filed. This is
another gray area, but to be on the safe side, you should follow this guideline.
你不是曾经很鄙视著名的EB-5经济学家MICHAEL EVANS，说人家的报告不比媒体记者强多少吗？
目前这是尚存争议的灰色地带。Evans 的说法也是从某种程度上或从另一个角度说明，置换贷款是可以的。
不要形而上学地探讨EB-5试点方案在实践中的操作。USCIS的最新做法是承认到该产业类别被USCIS批准的时间。
那么EB-5申请人在申请前就完成了初始投资呢，项目已经开工，这也不能算吗？显然是错的。
看看南州风电项目的投资人怎么对付你了。这句话也不全对！
I-829基于采用的经济模型的不同，必须区分开建筑硬成本和软成本（IMPLAN 会把建筑师、设计师等计算成间接就业），因此如果造成总体花费I-829时上涨是由于软成本增加，而硬成本却减少了，也是会有问题的。
据悉南州风电美国移民局存在明显的错误，相信一个月之内就会有胜利的消息。