加拿大家园论坛

开一帖讨论:Cameco (CCO/CCJ)

原文链接:https://forum.iask.ca/threads/806539/

eflee : 2016-10-23#1
首先,介绍一下Cameco前世今生:

Every time I look at Cameco Corporation (TSX:CCO)(NYSE:CCJ), I can’t help but feel like the bottom has been found and that the company will begin to turn around. And then another month or two goes by, I look at the company again, and it’s even lower.

Despite all of this, I remain bullish on the company for a multitude of reasons. But, unfortunately, to be bullish on Cameco is to be bullish on uranium, which has experienced tremendous lows ever since the Fukushima disaster back in March 2011. For reference, the spot price of uranium that month was a little over US$60. Fast forward to September and the spot price is only US$23. Naturally, if the price of the resource is down, Cameco has to be down as well.

But there are far too many market conditions that point to the price of uranium going far higher, and that leads me to believe that this will be an incredible investment. The question is, should you invest now or put your money in other places while you wait?

eflee : 2016-10-23#2
写得相当不错,可以表达当前的情况:

There are currently 61 nuclear reactors in construction. There are another 170 reactors that have started the planning process or are nearing construction. As these reactors come online, management will have to buy multiple years’ worth of uranium to ensure that operations run smoothly. That is going to have a serious impact on demand.

China and India (which recently signed deals with Cameco) will determine whether uranium skyrockets or not. India currently generates 6,000 megawatts of electricity from nuclear power, but it wants to increase that to 45,000 by 2035. And China is even better. It currently generates about 2% of its power from nuclear, yet it’s one of the six-largest nuclear countries in the world. By 2030, it wants to generate 30% of power from nuclear.

So as the demand continues to improve, we should expect the price of uranium to follow.

But supply still needs to be managed better. First, the secondary market is still rather robust. So when a nuclear reactor needs uranium, rather than signing a long-term deal with a producer, it just buys from a stockpile. But as these stockpiles dwindle, the reactors will have no choice but to buy from the producers in long-term deals.

The other supply concern is that there are a lot of producers. Fortunately, because it has remained so unprofitable to mine uranium (save, of course, for Cameco, which is a low cost miner), many of these suppliers will just slow down. And when demand becomes even greater, these suppliers won’t be in a position to help. It can take years to get a new uranium mine up and running, so if demand moves quicker than new supply, we might see a supply squeeze, thus sending the price of uranium far higher.

All in all, I am very bullish on both uranium and Cameco. The only problem is we don’t know when the bad news will turn good. Therefore, it might be better to put your money into other companies and let it grow before buying Cameco. But if you don’t want to time the market, these prices are really quite low.

maomao88 : 2016-10-23#3
楼主的英文水平好高啊,好多单词都不认识,了不起,赞一个

arenafox : 2016-10-23#4
cco看看9.4

周日寧靜 : 2016-10-24#5
跟樓主搵食, 沒錯

joesir : 2016-10-24#6
谢谢分享,公司股价目前技术面看也不错, 和行业整体挺有联系。如果有核电行业的相关信息希望也能分享比如其它主要竞争对手

hankgong : 2016-10-24#7
不是说跟税务局还有官司要打么?明年才出来结果,到时候再买也不迟。而且现在买了要long5年10年也太久了吧,其他的股票多得是呀。

eflee : 2016-10-24#8
楼主的英文水平好高啊,好多单词都不认识,了不起,赞一个
我很少写文章,大多数从阅读的东西里copy/paste :wdb45:

eflee : 2016-10-24#9
不是说跟税务局还有官司要打么?明年才出来结果,到时候再买也不迟。而且现在买了要long5年10年也太久了吧,其他的股票多得是呀。
这位同学也很有研究哦。

确实如此,有大概2B的税务问题。我觉得当前股价已经反应了这个预期。

现在也不知道结果何时出来,判决如何。

只要公司还有现金流,能继续维持运作不垮,就考虑入一些当长期投资吧。

若CCO垮了,NXE就发了。所以建议捆绑打包,蛋不能放一个篮子:)

eflee : 2016-10-24#10
铀价格应该是探底了。

什么时候回升还要参照炭、油和气等发电能源的价格。

看好印度和美国拉升能源需求。

eflee : 2016-10-24#11
跟樓主搵食, 沒錯

我觉得啊,目前这股还是有一定风险的。

虽知道,TCK我抄底也是从$16开始的啊,一直抄到$5。(还算好,股票没垮掉)

你能忍受几万块钱,-40%以上的亏损吗?

以自己comfortable zone为准。

joesir : 2016-10-24#12
我觉得啊,目前这股还是有一定风险的。

虽知道,TCK我抄底也是从$16开始的啊,一直抄到$5。(还算好,股票没垮掉)

你能忍受几万块钱,-40%以上的亏损吗?

以自己comfortable zone为准。
那你可真有定力,不过还是有个止损比较好

eflee : 2016-10-24#13
那你可真有定力,不过还是有个止损比较好
是啊,每个人都有自己的炒股风格。

盘面小于10亿的股我极少去碰。资源和黄金是有底的,我也一般做ETF操作。

这TCK我09年开始操作的,所以有一定的了解和信心。当你研究后发现,以前ETF持有TOP 10有TCK的时候,近期都没有的话。一旦TCK反转,基金补货的势头,是势不可挡的。

tsdj : 2016-10-24#14
我少进了点。但应该是长线的。铀的需求毕竟太小

eflee : 2016-10-24#15
提醒一下,铀矿有个URA的ETF基金,不过成交量比较低,适合长线和保守人士。

eflee : 2016-11-02#16
Cameco’s profit beats estimates on higher uranium sales

Canadian uranium producer Cameco Corp on Wednesday reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit, largely helped by a jump in uranium sales volumes.

Cameco’s uranium sales rose 35 per cent to 9.3 million pounds in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, while its average realized uranium price fell 0.6 per cent to $43.37 (U.S.) per pound.

Cameco reported a net profit of $142-million (Canadian), or 36 cents per share, attributable to equity holders in the quarter, compared with a loss of $4-million, or 1 cent per share, a year earlier.

Excluding items, the company earned 30 cents per share, beating the average analyst estimate of 28 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Revenue rose 3.2 per cent to $670-million, beating analysts’ expectation of $654.9-million.

hankgong : 2016-11-02#17
Cameco’s profit beats estimates on higher uranium sales

Canadian uranium producer Cameco Corp on Wednesday reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit, largely helped by a jump in uranium sales volumes.

Cameco’s uranium sales rose 35 per cent to 9.3 million pounds in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, while its average realized uranium price fell 0.6 per cent to $43.37 (U.S.) per pound.

Cameco reported a net profit of $142-million (Canadian), or 36 cents per share, attributable to equity holders in the quarter, compared with a loss of $4-million, or 1 cent per share, a year earlier.

Excluding items, the company earned 30 cents per share, beating the average analyst estimate of 28 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Revenue rose 3.2 per cent to $670-million, beating analysts’ expectation of $654.9-million.

OK. Today its price went up for 10%. Did you buy it?

eflee : 2016-11-02#18
OK. Today its price went up for 10%. Did you buy it?
早上起来已经升了5.3%了,随即加了些仓。

hankgong : 2016-11-02#19
OK, good luck for you. I'm not sure the big trend of the coming stock market. I decide to hold for now.
早上起来已经升了5.3%了,随即加了些仓。

eflee : 2016-11-02#20
OK, good luck for you. I'm not sure the big trend of the coming stock market. I decide to hold for now.
yeah, make your own decision.:wdb10:

eflee : 2016-11-10#21
CCO.TO $11.74,这几天表现不错,慢悠悠的,也涨了10%了。潜力股。

SFK7 : 2016-11-10#22
Up to 12 now

eflee : 2016-11-15#23
CCJ今日突破$9 :wdb6:

Housing up up up : 2016-11-15#24
N
这位同学也很有研究哦。

确实如此,有大概2B的税务问题。我觉得当前股价已经反应了这个预期。

现在也不知道结果何时出来,判决如何。

只要公司还有现金流,能继续维持运作不垮,就考虑入一些当长期投资吧。

若CCO垮了,NXE就发了。所以建议捆绑打包,蛋不能放一个篮子:)
NXE.TO 是否在1.45 已見㡳?

$1.61 追會太早嗎?

eflee : 2016-11-15#25
N

NXE.TO 是否在1.45 已見㡳?

$1.61 追會太早嗎?
对NXE没什么研究,就知道李家投了点钱在一个18年产出的项目。
从市值来看,它算老2了吧?

cnbobby : 2016-11-17#26
N

NXE.TO 是否在1.45 已見㡳?

$1.61 追會太早嗎?

对NXE没什么研究,就知道李家投了点钱在一个18年产出的项目。
从市值来看,它算老2了吧?

这两天飙了,还能进不

Housing up up up : 2016-11-17#27
这两天飙了,还能进不

现在升到1.88了,季報有好消息?
這样的股,應入多少股?
一万股夠吗?

eflee : 2016-11-17#28
NXE, 毕竟还是小盘股。容易风吹草动,就看你们神经够不够粗。

eflee : 2016-12-07#29
CCO.TO $13.66 Today :p

eflee : 2016-12-09#30
CCJ $10.56, NXE.TO $2.28

eflee : 2017-01-11#31
CCO.TO $16.31, CCJ $12.29, NXE.TO $.305 :D :D :D

铀矿发力了

Housing up up up : 2017-01-11#32
收了CCo分红

eflee : 2017-01-27#33
CCO.TO $17, NXE.TO $3.63 URA $17.6
赚得稳稳的

joesir : 2017-02-01#34
东京的一个电力公司终止了与ccj的合同,这个消息目前是个利空,盘前半小时股价降了11%。各位感觉这个是趁机进货的时机还是长时间的反转回调呢?

eflee : 2017-02-01#35
东京的一个电力公司终止了与ccj的合同,这个消息目前是个利空,盘前半小时股价降了11%。各位感觉这个是趁机进货的时机还是长时间的反转回调呢?
我觉得这个事件的确会影响Cameco后面的盈利,但核电整体大趋势没有改变。
就看Cameco能否谈妥赔偿或找到新买家了。

mayibanjia : 2017-02-14#36
顶你个肺

mayibanjia : 2017-02-14#37
铀现货价大跌0.85元,明天铀股玄!

eflee : 2017-02-14#38
铀现货价大跌0.85元,明天铀股玄!
不可能天天都是涨的吧

mayibanjia : 2017-02-15#39
http://www.fool.ca/2017/02/15/cameco-corp-upgraded-is-the-stock-ready-to-explode/

Cameco Corp. Upgraded: Is the Stock Ready to Explode?

mayibanjia : 2017-02-15#40
铀股全部下跌,少见的一天

mayibanjia : 2017-02-15#41
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teck-reports-unaudited-fourth-quarter-080100215.html

Teck Reports Unaudited Fourth Quarter Results for 2016

Marketwired
February 15, 2017
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Feb 15, 2017) -

All dollar amounts expressed in this news release are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.

Teck Resources Limited (TSX: TECK.A and TECK.B, NYSE: TECK) ("Teck") reported unaudited record fourth quarter adjusted profit attributable to shareholders of $930 million, or $1.61 per share, compared with $16 million, or $0.03 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2015. Annual adjusted profit attributable to shareholders for 2016 was $1.1 billion, or $1.91 per share, compared with $188 million, or $0.33 per share in 2015.

"We had a very good year in 2016. We came through one of the longest and deepest down cycles our industry has faced and emerged as a stronger company," said Don Lindsay, President and CEO. "We set a number of production and sales records while continuing to reduce our costs. We used the significant increase in cash generated by the higher steelmaking coal and zinc prices to reduce our debt by over $1.0 billion in the last few months."

Highlights and Significant Items

  • Record adjusted profit attributable to shareholders in the fourth quarter of $930 million, or $1.61 per share, compared with $16 million in 2015, or $0.03 per share. Annual adjusted profit attributable to shareholders was $1.1 billion, or $1.91 per share, compared with $188 million in 2015, or $0.33 per share.
  • Record gross profit before depreciation and amortization of $2.0 billion in the fourth quarter compared with $614 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. Gross profit before depreciation and amortization in 2016 was $3.8 billion compared with $2.6 billion in 2015.
  • Record cash flow from operations of $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared with $693 million a year ago. Cash flow from operations was $3.1 billion in 2016 compared with $2.0 billion last year.
  • Profit attributable to shareholders was $697 million in the fourth quarter compared with a loss of $459 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. Annual profit attributable to shareholders was $1.0 billion compared with a loss of $2.5 billion in 2015.
  • In late September and early October, we repurchased US$759 million (CAD$1.0 billion) principal amount of our outstanding notes in market transactions, recording a gain of CAD$76 million. At December 31, 2016, our outstanding notes totaled US$6.1 billion, down from US$7.2 billion at September 30, 2015. Our liquidity is strong at CAD$5.5 billion including approximately CAD$1.6 billion in cash at February 14, 2017 and US$3.0 billion of undrawn, committed credit facilities. We exceeded our original target to end the year with a cash balance of at least CAD$500 million even after retiring CAD$1.0 billion of debt not contemplated in our original guidance.
  • We set a number of quarterly and annual sales and production records while reducing total costs in each of our business units on an annual basis.
  • We have reached agreements with the majority of our steelmaking coal customers for the first quarter of 2017, based on a quarterly benchmark of US$285 per tonne for the highest quality product, and we expect total sales in the first quarter, including spot sales, to be approximately 6.0 million tonnes of steelmaking coal.
  • Construction of the Fort Hills oil sands project as of year end has surpassed 76% of completion, with two of the six major project areas (mining and infrastructure) turned over to operations. All major plant equipment and materials are on site, and all major vessels and process modules have been installed. Mobilization for operation has begun and the project remains on track to produce first oil in late 2017. The revised total project capital forecast is approximately 10% above the project sanction estimate, excluding foreign exchange impacts. Our share of project capital costs through to completion (including foreign exchange) is now expected to be $805 million, of which approximately $640 million will be spent in 2017. Due to the increase in capital cost, we recorded a pre-tax impairment charge of $222 million in our fourth quarter results.
  • Unionized employees at the Fording River and Elkview steelmaking coal mines each ratified new five-year collective agreements.
  • Our quarterly profit was reduced by impairment charges of $268 million ($198 million on an after-tax basis) including $222 million on the Fort Hills oil sands project and $46 million on non-core assets ($164 million and $34 million, respectively, on an after-tax basis). For 2016, total pre-tax asset impairment charges were $294 million and $217 million on an after-tax basis.
This news release is dated as at February 14, 2017. Unless the context otherwise dictates, a reference to "Teck," "the company," "us," "we," or "our" refers to Teck and its subsidiaries. Additional information, including our annual information form and management's discussion and analysis for the year ended December 31, 2015, is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

This document contains forward-looking statements. Please refer to the cautionary language under the heading "CAUTIONARY STATEMENT ON FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION" below.

Overview

We achieved record cash flow from operations of $1.5 billion, record gross profits of $2.0 billion, before depreciation and amortization, and record gross profits of $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter. This performance was a result of significantly higher realized steelmaking coal prices in the quarter and, to a lesser extent, higher zinc prices.

Steelmaking coal spot prices peaked in mid-November, exceeding US$300 per tonne for the third time in the last eight years. Our realized steelmaking coal price in the fourth quarter of US$207 per tonne exceeded the quarterly benchmark price of US$200 per tonne settled in early October, as the spot priced component of our sales reflected the market trend. Tight steelmaking coal supply and increased demand from steel mills during the fourth quarter drove prices up and the quarterly benchmark price for the first quarter of 2017 was settled at US$285 per tonne in mid-December. Steelmaking coal prices have since retreated. Prices on the spot market are more than 45% below the first quarter benchmark price and are currently trading at approximately US$155 per tonne. Despite increased supply from existing producers and a number of mine restarts, spot pricing levels remain nearly double what they were a year ago.

The improved prices provided additional profits and cash flow and we took the opportunity to strengthen our balance sheet by repurchasing US$759 million (CAD$1.0 billion) principal amount of our outstanding notes in September and October. Since the beginning of 2016 through to early 2017, we have reduced our debt by US$793 million. Our debt to debt-plus-equity ratio declined from 37% at the start of 2016 to 32% at December 31, 2016. We may purchase further debt from time to time on an opportunistic basis.

Construction of the Fort Hills oil sands project as of year end has surpassed 76% of completion, with two of the six major project areas (mining and infrastructure) turned over to operations. All major plant equipment and materials are on site, and all major vessels and process modules have been installed. Mobilization for operation has begun and the project remains on track to produce first oil in late 2017. The revised total project capital forecast is approximately 10% above the project sanction estimate, excluding foreign exchange impacts. Our share of project capital costs through to completion (including foreign exchange) is now expected to be $805 million, of which approximately $640 million will be spent in 2017. Due to the increase in capital cost, we recorded a pre-tax impairment charge of $222 million in our fourth quarter results.

Profit and Adjusted Profit(1)

mayibanjia : 2017-02-15#42
Teck季报极为亮丽,股价暴跌10%

mayibanjia : 2017-02-15#43
Billionaire Charlie Munger, one of the most celebrated investors in the world and an essential partner in Warren Buffett's success, shared his views on President Donald Trump at the annual meeting of the Daily Journal, a publishing company where he is chairman.

"I always try and think about the good [along with what's] not good. I think some of this stuff where they're re-examining options about the whole tax system of the country, I think that is a very constructive thing," the Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman said.

President Trump "is not wrong on everything. Just because he isn't like us, roll with it. And if there is a little danger, what the hell, you're not going to live forever anyway."

Superintender : 2017-02-15#44
明天会涨吗?

mayibanjia : 2017-02-17#45
铀现货价连跌两次,如果再跌,no good