有段时间我特别喜欢精读写得好的时政评论。新加坡的英文海峡时报的社评是我最喜欢的版本之一,因为其不但观点比较新颖,而且用语精致。但是近年来,其主编易主,质量下降了不少。我很少阅读了。
Anyway, 这篇社论我之所以想到,是因为其中描述的事件和格局和现在的俄国/乌克兰的局势有异曲同工之处。2008年8月份,北京夏奥运会在进行中,而格鲁吉亚和俄国之间发生了军事冲突。现在2022年,北京冬运会即将进行,乌克兰和俄国之间的军事紧张日益不减。共同之处是美国对俄国的压迫,以及后者做出的反应。
此文在网上已经找不到。我把原文贴出来。也把当时的词汇笔记分享。也同时全文中文翻译也给出,同时是分享我自己的政治立场。
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Aug 12, 2008
Straits Times
Georgia pays the price for audacity and myopia
GEORGIA, a tiny republic of the former Soviet Union but openly seeking charter status within the American-European bloc, has been pounded by Russia in the past week in fighting over rebel territory. Georgian forces which had moved in last week to reclaim seceding South Ossetia from a form of Russian trusteeship were quickly routed, and the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili is in effect suing for peace by demanding a ceasefire.
Far from responding magnanimously, Russia could choose to expand the operations to Abkhazia, another rebel region of Georgia. This is unbridled aggression, the strong bullying the weak - yet Georgia is not receiving much international sympathy. The United Nations Security Council is going nowhere debating the issue, no surprise as Russia has the power of veto. The US and some hyperactive Europeans, principally the French, current chair of the European Union, have made agitated noises. But no action. Russia is being castigated for its military response, yet could end up smelling like roses. What's going on?
Georgia has chosen the wrong fight for the wrong reasons at a bad time. Mr Saakashvili over-rated the usefulness of his country in the present strategic calculus when Iran, secure access to energy and Russian nostalgia for its vanished power are exerting opposing pulls.
The episode has been a demonstration of strategic incompetence, on the one hand, and of patriotic defence of the national interest, on the other. The needless provocation, by the Western camp which sees itself as liberationists, has been to use Georgia - together with several other ex-Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact satellites like Poland - to push its diplomatic boundaries deep into Russia's contiguous space.
Why it was deemed critical for the Nato military alliance to keep expanding when the Cold War was declared over, with the break-up of the Soviet Union and the rebirth of a nominally democratic Russia, is an enduring mystery. Russia has felt trodden on ever since. Georgia's courting of Nato membership was just rubbing it in. In attacking Georgia for its audacity in shooting first, Russia was securing the Caucasus region as a firewall against EU-Nato machinations. It was merely paying the US back in like coinage. Little wonder the Western bloc is reduced to stuttering.
As usual, the innocents suffer. A ceasefire must come eventually and the map of the region will probably be unchanged, as Russia appears to have no wish to annex territory. What has the fighting been for? Mr Saakashvili's mistake has been a failure to recognise that neutrality, or staying on good terms with both the West and Moscow, would have better secured Georgia's future.
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格鲁吉亚为自己的鲁莽和短见而付出代价
海峡时报
2008年8月12日
(翻译:喜欢圆珠笔)
格鲁吉亚是一个前苏联小国家,但它却正在公开寻求欧美阵营成员资格。上周,格和俄国为前者的反叛领土开战被狂轰乱炸。格鲁吉亚军队上周进入叛离的南奥塞梯地区,目的是要把它从俄国的托管管理中收回来。但是格鲁吉亚被打得落花流水。格国的米哈伊尔·萨卡什维利政府现在的停火要求几乎是在跪求和平。
俄国在此事中的回应远远不是宽容大度。俄可以选择把战争扩展到格鲁吉亚另外一个反叛地区阿布哈兹地区。这是肆无忌惮弱肉强食的攻击,但是格鲁吉亚却没有得到很多其他国家的同情。联合国安理会没有对此事辩论,当然这不奇怪因为俄国拥有否决权。美国和一些喜欢亢奋的欧洲国家 -- 比如现任欧盟主席的法国, 发出了一些激动的噪音。但是却没有任何行动。 俄国因为其军事回应而受到批评,但是却结果能洁身自保。为什么呢?
格鲁吉亚选择了在错误的时间,找错误的理由,打了场错误的仗。在目前的战略布局中,伊朗问题,能源供给问题,和俄国对其消逝过去的怀旧情绪,产生着彼此消长的影响。而在这场棋中,萨卡什维利总统高估了自己国家的用处。
这个事件一方面所展现的是战略无能,另一方面展示的是对国家利益的保护。自视为解放者的西方阵营一直利用格鲁吉亚和其他前苏联国家把自己的外交边界往俄国的空间深入推进。 这是没有必要的挑衅行为。
为什么在冷战结束,苏联解体后,北约却还认为非常有必要继续拓展,这是个永恒的迷思。俄国从此感觉自己被践踏。而格鲁吉亚对北约会员资格的追求更加是在俄国伤口撒盐。格鲁吉亚竟然敢先动手,俄国也就不客气的攻击,因此拿下此高加索地区充当对欧盟/北约诡计的防护墙。俄国只是对美国以其人之道,还治其人之身。因此,也不奇怪,西方阵营在此事中只有落下口吃的份了。
如同以往,无辜者受罪。停火协议必须达成,而地区的划分也可能保持不变,因为俄国无意吞并领土。 那打这场仗图了什么呢? 萨卡什维利总统的错误是他没有意识到:保持中立,或者和西方以及俄国两方都保持友好关系,才能保证格鲁吉亚的未来。
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