下面的内容据称是来自俄罗斯FSB的分析员（FSB可以理解为俄罗斯中央情报局）。
真假无从得知。
该文疯传于网络。对于支持乌克兰一方的人们，大快人心。
我说过，我支持乌克兰抗俄战争，而且是简单粗暴不分青红皂白的支持
看到唱衰俄罗斯的，我就像打了鸡血般的兴奋
用Google翻译出来，供参考。
也算是支持乌克兰的实际行动吧
I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world。
这些天我几乎没有睡觉，几乎所有时间都在工作，我有些晕头转向。 也许是因为过度劳累，但我觉得自己置身于一个超现实的世界。
The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable as Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat.
潘多拉的盒子打开了——真正的全球恐怖将在夏季开始——全球饥荒是不可避免的，因为俄罗斯和乌克兰是小麦的主要生产国。
I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports.
我不能说是什么引导那些负责人决定继续执行这项行动（乌克兰入侵），但现在他们有条不紊地指责我们（FSB）。 我们正在因为我们的分析而受到责骂。 最近，我们面临越来越大的压力来准备更多的报告。
All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone.
所有这些政治顾问和政治家以及当权者都在制造混乱。 最重要的是，没有人知道会发生这样的战争——这是对所有人隐瞒的。
For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack on Russia。
例如——你被要求分析陨石袭击（应该是指西方制裁）俄罗斯的各种结果和后果。
So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia,
所以你研究了攻击的模式，你被告知这只是一个假设，而不是强调细节，所以你理解报告只是为某些官僚做的复选框，分析的结论必须是积极的 对于俄罗斯，
otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked.
否则你基本上会因为没有做好工作而受到审问。 因此，您必须写下我们有所有必要的措施来消除给定类型攻击的影响。 我们完全过度劳累了。
But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash. We have no answer to the sanctions because of this. No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.
但后来事实证明，假设已经变成了现实，而我们对这个假设所做的分析完全是垃圾。 因此，我们对制裁没有任何答复。 没有人知道会发生这样的战争，所以没有人为这些制裁做好准备。
It’s the flipside consequence of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?
这是保密的反面后果——既然每个人都被蒙在鼓里，我们怎么能做好准备呢？
Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv.
卡德罗夫（车臣头子）疯了。 我们（FSB）非常接近与他发生冲突，因为乌克兰人声称从 FSB 收到了他在基辅的小队的情报。
Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.
卡德罗夫的小队在他们有机会反击之前就被彻底摧毁了，他们被炸成了碎片。我没有任何信息表明这是 FSB 泄露给乌克兰的，所以我认为有1-2% 的可能性，但是不能完全排除这种可能性。
Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country,
我们的闪电战已经完全崩溃了。 不可能完成任务：如果泽连斯基和他的副手在前3天被俘，所有关键建筑也被俘，他们被迫念出投降告示
then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?
那么乌克兰的抵抗可能会消散到最低限度。 理论上。 但是然后呢？ 即使在这个理想的结果中，仍然存在一个无法解决的问题：我们谈判的对手是谁？
If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If Zelensky signs, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him. ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate.
如果我们移除泽连斯基——很好——谁将签署协议？ 如果泽连斯基签约，那么在我们除掉他之后，这份协议将一文不值。 ОПЗЖ（乌克兰反对党与俄罗斯合作）拒绝合作。
Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how?
懦夫梅德韦丘克逃跑了。 还有一个首领——博伊科，但他也拒绝了，连他自己的人都不会理解他。 想要带回 Tsaryova，但即使我们的人在俄罗斯也反对他。 带回亚努科维奇？ 但是怎么做？
If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.
如果我们说我们不能占领，那么新成立的政府将在我们离开后10分钟内被推翻。
To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics.
占领？ 这么多人去哪里找？ 指挥官办公室、宪兵、反情报、安全——即使在乌克兰人的最低限度抵抗下，我们也需要超过 500,000 人，不包括供应和后勤。
There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.
有一条规则——如果你试图用数量来掩盖低质量的领导，你会让一切变得更糟。 我再说一遍，这还仅是 根本不存在理想情况下的问题。
And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons:
1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.
现在怎么办？ 我们不能宣布总动员有两个原因：1）动员会破坏俄罗斯国内的局势：政治、经济和社会。
2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.
今天我们的后勤已经超负荷运转。 我们可以派遣一支庞大的特遣队进入乌克兰，我们会得到什么？ 乌克兰——一个领土辽阔的国家，他们对我们的仇恨是天文数字。
Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.
These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.
我们的道路根本无法容纳这些车队的补给，一切都将停止。 由于当前的混乱，我们无法从管理方面解决问题。 这两个原因同时存在，尽管其中一个就足以打破一切。
With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!)
关于俄罗斯的军事损失：我不知道现实——没有人知道。 前两天有一些信息，但现在没有人知道乌克兰发生了什么。 我们与主要部门失去了联系。 （！！）
They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000.
他们可能会重新建立联系，也可能会在一次袭击中消散，甚至指挥官也不知道有多少人死伤或被俘。 总死亡人数肯定是数千人，可能有 10,000 人，可能有 5,000 人，或者可能只有 2,000 人。
But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
但即使在我们的指挥下，也没有人知道。 但可能有接近 10,000 名俄罗斯士兵丧生。 我们没有计算 DNR 和 LNR (乌克兰东部的那两个要独立的地区）的损失。
Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.
现在，即使我们杀死泽连斯基或俘虏他，也不会改变。 对我们的仇恨程度与车臣相似。 而现在，即使是那些在乌克兰忠于我们的人也公开反对我们。
Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first.
因为所有这一切都是在最高层（在俄罗斯）计划好的，因为我们被告知这种情况不会发生（乌克兰入侵），除非我们首先受到攻击。
Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky in Ukraine without ever considering invading Ukraine.
因为我们被告知，我们需要最大限度地利用我们的威胁，以便通过和平谈判取得结果。 因为我们已经在准备在乌克兰抗议泽连斯基，而从未考虑过入侵乌克兰。
Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success.
现在，乌克兰的平民损失将呈几何级数，对我们的抵抗只会越来越强。 步兵已经尝试进入城市——在 20 个伞兵大队中，只有一个“暂时”成功。
Recall the invasion of Mosul. It’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new. To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time
回想一下摩苏尔的入侵。 这是一条规则——每个国家都会发生，没有什么新鲜事。 围攻？ 在过去的几十年里，在欧洲——塞尔维亚是最好的例子，城市可以在被围困的情况下保持多年。 从欧洲到乌克兰的人道主义车队只是时间问题
Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.
我们有条件的截止日期是六月。 有条件的，因为 6 月俄罗斯将没有经济——什么都没有了。
By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides (for vs against war), simply because current tension (in Russia) is unsustainable.
总的来说，下周（在俄罗斯）双方（支持与反对战争）中的任何一方都将崩溃，仅仅是因为当前的紧张局势（在俄罗斯）是不可持续的。
We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia).
我们没有分析，我们无法在这种混乱中做出任何预测，没有人能够肯定地说出任何事情（在俄罗斯）。
To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed. The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything.
凭直觉行事，尤其是在情绪高涨的情况下，这不是扑克游戏。 但我们的赌注必须扩大规模，希望某些选择会成功。 可悲的是，我们很容易误判，结果一无所有。
By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it.
总的来说，俄罗斯没有出路。 没有可能的胜利，只有失败的选择——就是这样。
"100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity.
我们百分之百地重复了上个世纪的错误，当时我们决定踢“弱小”的日本，以便迅速取得胜利，结果使我们的军队处于完全的灾难状态。
Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans and started doing such things...
然后，我们开始了一场战争，直到胜利结束，然后我们开始征募布尔什维克在军队中接受再教育。 然后这些鲜为人知的布尔什维克拿起他们的反战口号，开始做这样的事情……
From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.
优点：我们尽一切努力确保没有任何迹象表明我们将刑事军事单位派往前线。 如果征召政治犯和社会不良分子，军队的道德精神就会受到负面影响。
The enemy (Ukraine) is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.
敌人（乌克兰）受到激励。 莫名的激动。 会战斗，有很多能干的指挥官。 他们有武器和支持。 我们只会在世界上开创人类灾难的先例。
What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the West's attention
我们最害怕的是：高层试图用新问题掩盖旧问题。 很大程度上是因为这个原因顿巴斯发生在 2014 年——我们需要分散西方对克里米亚的俄罗斯之春的注意力，所以顿巴斯的所谓危机不得不吸引所有西方的注意力
and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria.
并成为讨价还价的筹码。 但更大的问题从那里开始。 然后我们决定向埃尔多安施压，让其获得 4 根南流（天然气）管道并进入叙利亚。
This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems. As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away.
这是在苏莱曼尼（伊斯兰革命卫队）故意向我们提供虚假信息以解决他自己的问题之后。 结果，我们无法解决克里米亚的问题，而顿巴斯的问题也没有消失。
Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.
南溪减少到 2 根管道（天然气），叙利亚陷入困境——我们离开，阿萨德将被推翻，我们将看起来像白痴，呆在那里既艰难又毫无意义。
I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had we received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.
我不知道是谁提出了“乌克兰闪电战”。 如果我们收到了所有真实的投入，我们至少会指出最初的计划是有争议的，而且必须重新评估很多。 很多东西需要重新评估。
Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.
现在我们陷入了垃圾到我们的脖子，我们不知道该怎么办。 “去纳粹化”和“非军事化”不是分析类别，因为它们没有具体制定的参数来评估目标的满足情况。
Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war.
现在我们被困在等待一些精神错乱的顾问说服高层开始与欧洲发生冲突，并要求减少制裁——他们要么放松制裁，要么发动战争。
And what if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.
如果西方拒绝呢？ 在那种情况下，我不排除我们将卷入一场真正的国际冲突，就像 1939 年的希特勒一样。我们的“Z”将等同于万字符。
Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike (in Ukraine)? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else .
是否有可能进行局部核打击（在乌克兰）？ 是的。 不是为了任何军事目标。 这样的武器无助于突破防御。 但目的是吓唬其他人。
We are plowing to create a scenario to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons.
我们正在努力创造一种情景，将一切都归咎于乌克兰。 Naryshkin（俄罗斯外国情报局局长）和他的 SVR 正在挖掘土地以证明乌克兰正在秘密制造核武器。
They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret
他们正在抨击我们已经分析过的内容并结束了这本书：我们不能仅仅虚构任何证据或证据以及专家和铀的存在。 乌克兰有一吨耗尽的同位素 238——这不算什么。 生产周期是你不能偷偷做的
A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.
脏弹不能秘密制造。 乌克兰的旧核电站只能以极少量的副产品生产这种材料。 美国人用 MAGATE 对这些工厂进行了这样的监控，以至于谈论这个都是愚蠢的。
Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s.
你知道一周后会发生什么吗？ 让我们甚至在 2 周内。 我们会被搞砸的，我们将开始回忆 90 年代饥饿的美好时光。
As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.
随着市场关闭，Nabiullina （俄罗斯经济方面的负责人）似乎采取了正确的步骤，但这就像用手指堵住船上的洞。 局势无论如何都会突破，甚至会更加强大。 任何事情都不会在 3 或 5 或 7 天内得到解决。
Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.
卡德罗夫踢他的蹄子不是没有道理的。 他们有自己的冒险经历。 他为自己创造了一个无敌的名字——如果他一旦倒下，他自己的人就会把他赶走。
Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of supplies, and then ridiculous heat will come….
下一个。 叙利亚。 “伙计们——坚持住，一切都将在乌克兰结束，然后我们将巩固我们在叙利亚的阵地。” 而现在，我们驻扎在那里的特遣队随时都可能耗尽物资，然后荒谬的高温就会到来……
Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please note – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.
土耳其正在关闭海峡，空运物资到叙利亚就像用现金加热烤箱一样。 请注意——这一切都是同时发生的，我们甚至没有时间把它们放在一起进行分析。
Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.
Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes it feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.
我们现在的位置就像 1943-1944 年的德国——但那是我们在乌克兰的起始位置。 有时我会迷失在这种过度劳累中，有时感觉这只是一场梦，一切都和以前一样。
With regards to prisons – it will get worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation.
关于监狱——情况会变得更糟。 螺母将开始拧紧直到流血。 到处。 坦率地说，纯粹从技术上讲，这是保持对局势的任何控制的唯一方法。
We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.
我们已经处于全面动员模式。 但我们不能长时间保持这种模式，但我们的时间表是未知的，而且只会变得更糟。 治理总是偏离动员。 想象一下：你可以冲刺 100 米——但在马拉松比赛中试试吧。
And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.
因此，带着乌克兰人的问题，我们像参加 100 米短跑一样猛冲，但结果我们报名参加了马拉松比赛。 这是对当前事件的简要概述。
To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.
为了提供进一步的冷嘲热讽，我不相信普京会按下红色按钮来摧毁整个世界。 首先，不是一个人决定，有人会拒绝。 这个过程涉及很多人，没有一个“红色”按钮。
Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.
经验表明，控制程序越透明，就越容易发现问题。 谁控制什么以及如何控制是模糊不清的，但总是提交充满虚张声势的报告，这就是总是存在问题的地方。
I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.
我不确定“红色按钮”系统是否根据声明的数据起作用。 此外，钚燃料必须每 10 年更换一次。
Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.
第三，这是最令人恶心和悲哀的，我个人不相信普京甚至不允许他最亲密的部长和顾问在他身边的情况下牺牲自己。
Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him?
无论是由于普京对 COVID 的恐惧还是可能的暗杀，都无关紧要。 如果普京害怕最信任的人靠近他，那么他怎么可能选择毁灭自己和最亲近的人呢？
真假无从得知。
该文疯传于网络。对于支持乌克兰一方的人们，大快人心。
我说过，我支持乌克兰抗俄战争，而且是简单粗暴不分青红皂白的支持
看到唱衰俄罗斯的，我就像打了鸡血般的兴奋
用Google翻译出来，供参考。
也算是支持乌克兰的实际行动吧
I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world。
这些天我几乎没有睡觉，几乎所有时间都在工作，我有些晕头转向。 也许是因为过度劳累，但我觉得自己置身于一个超现实的世界。
The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable as Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat.
潘多拉的盒子打开了——真正的全球恐怖将在夏季开始——全球饥荒是不可避免的，因为俄罗斯和乌克兰是小麦的主要生产国。
I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports.
我不能说是什么引导那些负责人决定继续执行这项行动（乌克兰入侵），但现在他们有条不紊地指责我们（FSB）。 我们正在因为我们的分析而受到责骂。 最近，我们面临越来越大的压力来准备更多的报告。
All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone.
所有这些政治顾问和政治家以及当权者都在制造混乱。 最重要的是，没有人知道会发生这样的战争——这是对所有人隐瞒的。
For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack on Russia。
例如——你被要求分析陨石袭击（应该是指西方制裁）俄罗斯的各种结果和后果。
So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia,
所以你研究了攻击的模式，你被告知这只是一个假设，而不是强调细节，所以你理解报告只是为某些官僚做的复选框，分析的结论必须是积极的 对于俄罗斯，
otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked.
否则你基本上会因为没有做好工作而受到审问。 因此，您必须写下我们有所有必要的措施来消除给定类型攻击的影响。 我们完全过度劳累了。
But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash. We have no answer to the sanctions because of this. No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.
但后来事实证明，假设已经变成了现实，而我们对这个假设所做的分析完全是垃圾。 因此，我们对制裁没有任何答复。 没有人知道会发生这样的战争，所以没有人为这些制裁做好准备。
It’s the flipside consequence of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?
这是保密的反面后果——既然每个人都被蒙在鼓里，我们怎么能做好准备呢？
Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv.
卡德罗夫（车臣头子）疯了。 我们（FSB）非常接近与他发生冲突，因为乌克兰人声称从 FSB 收到了他在基辅的小队的情报。
Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.
卡德罗夫的小队在他们有机会反击之前就被彻底摧毁了，他们被炸成了碎片。我没有任何信息表明这是 FSB 泄露给乌克兰的，所以我认为有1-2% 的可能性，但是不能完全排除这种可能性。
Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country,
我们的闪电战已经完全崩溃了。 不可能完成任务：如果泽连斯基和他的副手在前3天被俘，所有关键建筑也被俘，他们被迫念出投降告示
then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?
那么乌克兰的抵抗可能会消散到最低限度。 理论上。 但是然后呢？ 即使在这个理想的结果中，仍然存在一个无法解决的问题：我们谈判的对手是谁？
If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If Zelensky signs, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him. ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate.
如果我们移除泽连斯基——很好——谁将签署协议？ 如果泽连斯基签约，那么在我们除掉他之后，这份协议将一文不值。 ОПЗЖ（乌克兰反对党与俄罗斯合作）拒绝合作。
Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how?
懦夫梅德韦丘克逃跑了。 还有一个首领——博伊科，但他也拒绝了，连他自己的人都不会理解他。 想要带回 Tsaryova，但即使我们的人在俄罗斯也反对他。 带回亚努科维奇？ 但是怎么做？
If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.
如果我们说我们不能占领，那么新成立的政府将在我们离开后10分钟内被推翻。
To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics.
占领？ 这么多人去哪里找？ 指挥官办公室、宪兵、反情报、安全——即使在乌克兰人的最低限度抵抗下，我们也需要超过 500,000 人，不包括供应和后勤。
There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.
有一条规则——如果你试图用数量来掩盖低质量的领导，你会让一切变得更糟。 我再说一遍，这还仅是 根本不存在理想情况下的问题。
And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons:
1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.
现在怎么办？ 我们不能宣布总动员有两个原因：1）动员会破坏俄罗斯国内的局势：政治、经济和社会。
2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.
今天我们的后勤已经超负荷运转。 我们可以派遣一支庞大的特遣队进入乌克兰，我们会得到什么？ 乌克兰——一个领土辽阔的国家，他们对我们的仇恨是天文数字。
Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.
These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.
我们的道路根本无法容纳这些车队的补给，一切都将停止。 由于当前的混乱，我们无法从管理方面解决问题。 这两个原因同时存在，尽管其中一个就足以打破一切。
With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!)
关于俄罗斯的军事损失：我不知道现实——没有人知道。 前两天有一些信息，但现在没有人知道乌克兰发生了什么。 我们与主要部门失去了联系。 （！！）
They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000.
他们可能会重新建立联系，也可能会在一次袭击中消散，甚至指挥官也不知道有多少人死伤或被俘。 总死亡人数肯定是数千人，可能有 10,000 人，可能有 5,000 人，或者可能只有 2,000 人。
But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
但即使在我们的指挥下，也没有人知道。 但可能有接近 10,000 名俄罗斯士兵丧生。 我们没有计算 DNR 和 LNR (乌克兰东部的那两个要独立的地区）的损失。
Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.
现在，即使我们杀死泽连斯基或俘虏他，也不会改变。 对我们的仇恨程度与车臣相似。 而现在，即使是那些在乌克兰忠于我们的人也公开反对我们。
Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first.
因为所有这一切都是在最高层（在俄罗斯）计划好的，因为我们被告知这种情况不会发生（乌克兰入侵），除非我们首先受到攻击。
Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky in Ukraine without ever considering invading Ukraine.
因为我们被告知，我们需要最大限度地利用我们的威胁，以便通过和平谈判取得结果。 因为我们已经在准备在乌克兰抗议泽连斯基，而从未考虑过入侵乌克兰。
Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success.
现在，乌克兰的平民损失将呈几何级数，对我们的抵抗只会越来越强。 步兵已经尝试进入城市——在 20 个伞兵大队中，只有一个“暂时”成功。
Recall the invasion of Mosul. It’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new. To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time
回想一下摩苏尔的入侵。 这是一条规则——每个国家都会发生，没有什么新鲜事。 围攻？ 在过去的几十年里，在欧洲——塞尔维亚是最好的例子，城市可以在被围困的情况下保持多年。 从欧洲到乌克兰的人道主义车队只是时间问题
Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.
我们有条件的截止日期是六月。 有条件的，因为 6 月俄罗斯将没有经济——什么都没有了。
By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides (for vs against war), simply because current tension (in Russia) is unsustainable.
总的来说，下周（在俄罗斯）双方（支持与反对战争）中的任何一方都将崩溃，仅仅是因为当前的紧张局势（在俄罗斯）是不可持续的。
We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia).
我们没有分析，我们无法在这种混乱中做出任何预测，没有人能够肯定地说出任何事情（在俄罗斯）。
To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed. The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything.
凭直觉行事，尤其是在情绪高涨的情况下，这不是扑克游戏。 但我们的赌注必须扩大规模，希望某些选择会成功。 可悲的是，我们很容易误判，结果一无所有。
By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it.
总的来说，俄罗斯没有出路。 没有可能的胜利，只有失败的选择——就是这样。
"100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity.
我们百分之百地重复了上个世纪的错误，当时我们决定踢“弱小”的日本，以便迅速取得胜利，结果使我们的军队处于完全的灾难状态。
Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans and started doing such things...
然后，我们开始了一场战争，直到胜利结束，然后我们开始征募布尔什维克在军队中接受再教育。 然后这些鲜为人知的布尔什维克拿起他们的反战口号，开始做这样的事情……
From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.
优点：我们尽一切努力确保没有任何迹象表明我们将刑事军事单位派往前线。 如果征召政治犯和社会不良分子，军队的道德精神就会受到负面影响。
The enemy (Ukraine) is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.
敌人（乌克兰）受到激励。 莫名的激动。 会战斗，有很多能干的指挥官。 他们有武器和支持。 我们只会在世界上开创人类灾难的先例。
What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the West's attention
我们最害怕的是：高层试图用新问题掩盖旧问题。 很大程度上是因为这个原因顿巴斯发生在 2014 年——我们需要分散西方对克里米亚的俄罗斯之春的注意力，所以顿巴斯的所谓危机不得不吸引所有西方的注意力
and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria.
并成为讨价还价的筹码。 但更大的问题从那里开始。 然后我们决定向埃尔多安施压，让其获得 4 根南流（天然气）管道并进入叙利亚。
This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems. As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away.
这是在苏莱曼尼（伊斯兰革命卫队）故意向我们提供虚假信息以解决他自己的问题之后。 结果，我们无法解决克里米亚的问题，而顿巴斯的问题也没有消失。
Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.
南溪减少到 2 根管道（天然气），叙利亚陷入困境——我们离开，阿萨德将被推翻，我们将看起来像白痴，呆在那里既艰难又毫无意义。
I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had we received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.
我不知道是谁提出了“乌克兰闪电战”。 如果我们收到了所有真实的投入，我们至少会指出最初的计划是有争议的，而且必须重新评估很多。 很多东西需要重新评估。
Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.
现在我们陷入了垃圾到我们的脖子，我们不知道该怎么办。 “去纳粹化”和“非军事化”不是分析类别，因为它们没有具体制定的参数来评估目标的满足情况。
Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war.
现在我们被困在等待一些精神错乱的顾问说服高层开始与欧洲发生冲突，并要求减少制裁——他们要么放松制裁，要么发动战争。
And what if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.
如果西方拒绝呢？ 在那种情况下，我不排除我们将卷入一场真正的国际冲突，就像 1939 年的希特勒一样。我们的“Z”将等同于万字符。
Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike (in Ukraine)? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else .
是否有可能进行局部核打击（在乌克兰）？ 是的。 不是为了任何军事目标。 这样的武器无助于突破防御。 但目的是吓唬其他人。
We are plowing to create a scenario to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons.
我们正在努力创造一种情景，将一切都归咎于乌克兰。 Naryshkin（俄罗斯外国情报局局长）和他的 SVR 正在挖掘土地以证明乌克兰正在秘密制造核武器。
They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret
他们正在抨击我们已经分析过的内容并结束了这本书：我们不能仅仅虚构任何证据或证据以及专家和铀的存在。 乌克兰有一吨耗尽的同位素 238——这不算什么。 生产周期是你不能偷偷做的
A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.
脏弹不能秘密制造。 乌克兰的旧核电站只能以极少量的副产品生产这种材料。 美国人用 MAGATE 对这些工厂进行了这样的监控，以至于谈论这个都是愚蠢的。
Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s.
你知道一周后会发生什么吗？ 让我们甚至在 2 周内。 我们会被搞砸的，我们将开始回忆 90 年代饥饿的美好时光。
As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.
随着市场关闭，Nabiullina （俄罗斯经济方面的负责人）似乎采取了正确的步骤，但这就像用手指堵住船上的洞。 局势无论如何都会突破，甚至会更加强大。 任何事情都不会在 3 或 5 或 7 天内得到解决。
Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.
卡德罗夫踢他的蹄子不是没有道理的。 他们有自己的冒险经历。 他为自己创造了一个无敌的名字——如果他一旦倒下，他自己的人就会把他赶走。
Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of supplies, and then ridiculous heat will come….
下一个。 叙利亚。 “伙计们——坚持住，一切都将在乌克兰结束，然后我们将巩固我们在叙利亚的阵地。” 而现在，我们驻扎在那里的特遣队随时都可能耗尽物资，然后荒谬的高温就会到来……
Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please note – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.
土耳其正在关闭海峡，空运物资到叙利亚就像用现金加热烤箱一样。 请注意——这一切都是同时发生的，我们甚至没有时间把它们放在一起进行分析。
Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.
Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes it feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.
我们现在的位置就像 1943-1944 年的德国——但那是我们在乌克兰的起始位置。 有时我会迷失在这种过度劳累中，有时感觉这只是一场梦，一切都和以前一样。
With regards to prisons – it will get worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation.
关于监狱——情况会变得更糟。 螺母将开始拧紧直到流血。 到处。 坦率地说，纯粹从技术上讲，这是保持对局势的任何控制的唯一方法。
We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.
我们已经处于全面动员模式。 但我们不能长时间保持这种模式，但我们的时间表是未知的，而且只会变得更糟。 治理总是偏离动员。 想象一下：你可以冲刺 100 米——但在马拉松比赛中试试吧。
And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.
因此，带着乌克兰人的问题，我们像参加 100 米短跑一样猛冲，但结果我们报名参加了马拉松比赛。 这是对当前事件的简要概述。
To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.
为了提供进一步的冷嘲热讽，我不相信普京会按下红色按钮来摧毁整个世界。 首先，不是一个人决定，有人会拒绝。 这个过程涉及很多人，没有一个“红色”按钮。
Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.
经验表明，控制程序越透明，就越容易发现问题。 谁控制什么以及如何控制是模糊不清的，但总是提交充满虚张声势的报告，这就是总是存在问题的地方。
I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.
我不确定“红色按钮”系统是否根据声明的数据起作用。 此外，钚燃料必须每 10 年更换一次。
Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.
第三，这是最令人恶心和悲哀的，我个人不相信普京甚至不允许他最亲密的部长和顾问在他身边的情况下牺牲自己。
Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him?
无论是由于普京对 COVID 的恐惧还是可能的暗杀，都无关紧要。 如果普京害怕最信任的人靠近他，那么他怎么可能选择毁灭自己和最亲近的人呢？
