历史数据分析,长期投资最佳组合

阿吾

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历史显示长期投资最佳组合: 美国10年期国债 + 金子 + 美国小盘股 + 新兴市场股票
美国国债+金子是一类,美国小盘股与新兴市场股票是一类,稳健加激进。

现金与房地产都不是好投资。。

Conclusions

If you’re looking to maximize long-term diversification, the results over both periods suggest that partial allocations to emerging market stocks, U.S. intermediate-term bonds, gold, and U.S. small-cap stocks are the best bets, if history is any guide for the future. And because today’s post focused on rank statistics, we shouldn’t forget that the diversification benefits from these four assets may turn out to be mostly emotional benefits.

You may “feel better” about your portfolio by adding some of these four assets, particularly at times when they react positively (or less severely in a negative direction) to market gyrations as compared to other assets in your portfolio. However, the ranking statistics also show that some of these assets (gold and 10-year bond in particular) spend a lot of time in the bottom half of the ranks, which will be frustrating, particularly when it happens for many years.

The long-term returns (and ranks to some extent) also confirm that, if we set emotions aside, the most rational portfolio for long-term investors is almost any mixture of primarily U.S. stocks. And because mindful investors favor investing on rational, rather than emotional terms, rank statistics don’t support the idea of placing substantial bets on bonds or gold.

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阿吾

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可是我身边的华人,包括以前认识的华人朋友,大多数是握有房产和现金存款。
持有金子,做股票债券的其实很少,大概10%到15%的比例。可能我认识的人还是少,没有看到很多情况。
现金与房子是我们很多华人的习惯。。。:)
 
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历史显示长期投资最佳组合: 美国10年期国债 + 金子 + 美国小盘股 + 新兴市场股票
美国国债+金子是一类,美国小盘股与新兴市场股票是一类,稳健加激进。

现金与房地产都不是好投资。。

Conclusions

If you’re looking to maximize long-term diversification, the results over both periods suggest that partial allocations to emerging market stocks, U.S. intermediate-term bonds, gold, and U.S. small-cap stocks are the best bets, if history is any guide for the future. And because today’s post focused on rank statistics, we shouldn’t forget that the diversification benefits from these four assets may turn out to be mostly emotional benefits.

You may “feel better” about your portfolio by adding some of these four assets, particularly at times when they react positively (or less severely in a negative direction) to market gyrations as compared to other assets in your portfolio. However, the ranking statistics also show that some of these assets (gold and 10-year bond in particular) spend a lot of time in the bottom half of the ranks, which will be frustrating, particularly when it happens for many years.

The long-term returns (and ranks to some extent) also confirm that, if we set emotions aside, the most rational portfolio for long-term investors is almost any mixture of primarily U.S. stocks. And because mindful investors favor investing on rational, rather than emotional terms, rank statistics don’t support the idea of placing substantial bets on bonds or gold.

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你说的好投资,我一个都没有,现金和房产占了我90%以上的配置:wdb4:
 

Aidemengdun

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现金与房子是我们很多华人的习惯。。。:)
可是我身边的华人,包括以前认识的华人朋友,大多数是握有房产和现金存款。
持有金子,做股票债券的其实很少,大概10%到15%的比例。可能我认识的人还是少,没有看到很多情况。
华人投资房产的还是占多数,其实原因我觉得也简单

数据和图标是对的。没错的。
但是忽视了很大的一点:因为投资房子不需要你投入所有的付款,你只需要付出20%首付。如果这样看到数据表格,可以把收益率计算成4-5倍。
这还只是投资房产租金的收入,如果包括房产增值的收入,不会比投资股市场差。

当然热门的市场。租金就不要想了,只能期望房产增值的部分。
 
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昨天我说啥来着,要轧金子 :)
今天老鲍讲话,2年不加息(真的吗?),市场大松一口气,
国债继续飙升,美元下跌,金子上涨,
你不说是逗我玩儿的嘛?!我刚准备下手轧金子,一看你说着玩儿的,立马收回来了。这要真造成了损失,你会不会感到特内疚啊?:LOL:
 
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市场瞬息万变,一月份以来金子跌的很惨,
目前还真不好说,金子会上涨,上涨到哪里。。。
我知道市场很难说,我也知道投资不能问别人的意见,因为谁也担不起这个责任。我就是说着玩儿的:p

黄金其实也可以考虑,少买点儿买着玩儿呗,跟家园币差不多,我要想在TFSA里买黄金,直接打电话到TD让理财顾问帮忙买就行了吗?不用开通什么账户?
 

阿吾

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我知道市场很难说,我也知道投资不能问别人的意见,因为谁也担不起这个责任。我就是说着玩儿的:p

黄金其实也可以考虑,少买点儿买着玩儿呗,跟家园币差不多,我要想在TFSA里买黄金,直接打电话到TD让理财顾问帮忙买就行了吗?不用开通什么账户?
黄金的ETF与普通ETF一样,不需要
 
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Canada escaped the major post-2008 collapse in house prices which took place in Europe and the U.S. House prices have risen almost continuously for 18 years:

  • From Q1 2000 to Q1 2009, house prices rose by 79% (49% inflation-adjusted), due to low interest rates and economic growth.
  • From Q2 2009 to Q3 2012, house prices increased by another 24% (17% inflation-adjusted), despite government efforts to cool the housing market.
  • From Q4 2012 to Q4 2015, tighter mortgage rules implemented in July 2012 helped calm the market, but house prices still rose by around 15.7% (10.8% inflation-adjusted).
  • From 2016 to 2020, house prices surged by almost 40% (28.4% inflation-adjusted).
Canada house price index
 

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