- 主题发起人 vickyzyd
- 发布时间 2014-03-12
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Honestly, I'm not familiar with commercial real estate market. Vicky is the master on this topic.
别给我扣帽子哈，商务楼狐狸姐一点不懂，虽然以前买过一栋，不过赔钱卖了，是我在房产投资里的唯一一次失败，赔的不多，就相当于10多年的活都白干了。我现在只投资residential, 算是给自己买了份养老保险。
最近在市场上大量涌现商务楼，我也有点心动，但是不敢买，上百万的资金，如果租不出去，那真的是上火睡不着觉啊，我觉得我自己没有那么大的承受力，没有金刚钻不揽瓷器活
我觉得博主对O的趋势看法不够全面Honestly, I'm not familiar with commercial real estate market. Vicky is the master on this topic.
My unprofessional opinion is that the price of urban center/downtown commercial property should go up due to the unique location and prevailing easing monetary policies around the world for the next 3-5 years. The suburban commercial property price will likely remain flat due to the death of traditional retailers in shopping malls during pandemic. But, overall, I don't think any RE price will decline substantially for the next 3-5 years, given the current unprecedented super duper easing macro environment.
The problem is that it might be hard to efficiently benefit from this trend, particularly for the commercial RE. While the property value is definitely a material bottom for the stock price of Macy's and The Bay, the M share price will only fly when the retailing business improves.
On the other hand, if you want to invest in this market via REIT, you will have to forego the advantage of leveraging which is the crucial edge when you directly buy residentail properties yourself.
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完全正确，其实很多人说买楼没有股市投资收益好，其实不然，房市的投资可以理解marginal投资，用50万可以贷出1百50万，即使每年只有5%的收益，在你投入资金50万的基础上却是20%的收益，再加上房市的上涨，就是你投入的2百万可能在每年收5%收益的同时，一年还要增值5%而，那么总收益就是40%，且稳赚不赔，所以房市是最稳定可靠，收益也最可观的投资方式，可惜的是现在的楼盘都涨出了天，一入市场就被哄抢，所以想找靠谱的房地产投资比登天还难。
5%算是比较保守的收益计算，就是说如果加上银行贷款你有2百万的资金，你可以期待每年10-15万的收益，当然前3年还会有一些投入，基本上3年之后就会比较稳定
