我们将川普获胜的概率调降到1% : 川普币大降价至0.01家园币,10家园币即可购买1000个

因川普承认败选,我们认为川普几乎没有可能再连任4年。

外部FTX的川普二月币概率降到1.3% ,我们也将川普币的概率调降到1% :

川普币大降价至0.01家园币,10家园币即可购买1000个 。

每人限购10000川普币。

 
最后编辑: 2021-01-08

阿吾

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0.95家园币价格的拜登币也已经开放购买:



想明确一下时间和人物,省的到时候扯皮
我记得上回我问过,如果在1月20号决定不了,该如何,我记得你的回答是顺延。
我在看宪法12修正案,这一次大选情况很复杂,
如果1月6号或者20定不下来的,也许会出现代理总统情况,如何算?

The Electors shall meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; -- The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted; -- The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.-- The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
 

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想明确一下时间和人物,省的到时候扯皮
我记得上回我问过,如果在1月20号决定不了,该如何,我记得你的回答是顺延。
我在看宪法12修正案,这一次大选情况很复杂,
如果1月6号或者20定不下来的,也许会出现代理总统情况,如何算?

The Electors shall meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; -- The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted; -- The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.-- The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

2月1日,川普如果还是总统,还在白宫,川普币赢。

2月1日,川普如果不是总统,不在白宫,川普币输。
 

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2月1日,川普如果还是总统,还在白宫,川普币赢。

2月1日,川普如果不是总统,不在白宫,川普币输。

1月20是川普上一任到期的时间,
如果1月6号定不下来,因为需要论证调查,
1月20号到3月4号之间会有代理总统出现,代理总统是彭斯?
按宪法,在3月4号决定最终总统是谁

考虑到这种纷争的可能性,我觉得3月4号是最合理的,
毕竟代理总统,不是最终总统,而是纷争中的临时过渡,
当然1月20号前,全部明确就没有这个问题了。。。
 

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1月20是川普上一任到期的时间,
如果1月6号定不下来,因为需要论证调查,1月20号到3月4号之间会有代理总统出现,
按宪法,在3月4号决定最终总统是谁

考虑到这种纷争的可能性,我觉得3月4号是最合理的,
毕竟代理总统,不是最终总统,而是纷争中的临时过渡,
当然1月20号前,全部明确就没有这个问题了。。。

不可能有代理总统,绝无可能
 

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不可能有代理总统,绝无可能
我觉得也不可能,
但是还是把这种可能性想进去,万一出现,就不会扯皮了
因为这个期间(1月20号-3月4号),代理总统好像是彭斯,或者佩罗西,或者新的副总统?
如果真发生了,川普币与白等币都会输,而网友打的是川普vs白等,最后谁是总统

我想说的是,如果代理总统情况出现,时间可延长到宪法上说的3月4号,这样就合理了

And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.-
 
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我觉得也不可能,
但是还是把这种可能性想进去,万一出现,就不会扯皮了
因为这个期间(1月20号-3月4号),代理总统好像是彭斯,或者佩罗西,或者新的副总统?
如果真发生了,川普币与白等币都会输,而网友打的是川普vs白等,最后谁是总统

我想说的是,如果代理总统情况出现,时间可延长到宪法上说的3月4号,这样就合理了

And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.-
有道理 👍
 
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很简单,如果还担心有代理总统出现,或者谁比较有信心,“代理总统”这样的小概率事件(小概率事件的数学解释,李永乐老师讲得最好),论坛再出一个两天期的“代理总统币”(而且没有相应的对冲货币),到了1月6日,没有“代理总统”出现,购买的“代理总统币”统统归零。看看有几个人会买。。。

应该几乎没有人会买。“代理总统”是小概率的小概率。我几乎天天听和看美国主流媒体英语新闻。川普继任可能性接近于零,不管你高兴不高兴。也许我听的新闻还不够多、不够主流。。。?“代理总统”这个说法,我还就只在这个论坛看到。。。
 

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很简单,如果还担心有代理总统出现,或者谁比较有信心,“代理总统”这样的小概率事件(小概率事件的数学解释,李永乐老师讲得最好),论坛再出一个两天期的“代理总统币”(而且没有相应的对冲货币),到了1月6日,没有“代理总统”出现,购买的“代理总统币”统统归零。看看有几个人会买。。。

应该几乎没有人会买。“代理总统”是小概率的小概率。我几乎天天听和看美国主流媒体英语新闻。川普继任可能性接近于零,不管你高兴不高兴。也许我听的新闻还不够多、不够主流。。。?“代理总统”这个说法,我还就只在这个论坛看到。。。
因为你听的是主流,因为主流媒体只说白等赢,当然川普可能性为零了,主流媒体对白等不利的消息都不会说。
我不仅在看主流媒体推特,也看非主流媒体推特,还看各种分析,所以所有的可能性都能看到。。。

既然设规则,就应该严密一点,跟信心其实无关,
 

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另外建议,为了增加刺激性和公平性,再开的“川普币”,“拜登币”最好是不能用现有的家园币购买,而只能用真金实银的加币投入购买。

家园币是admin最想要的,因为是增值资产,净值已经从0变成0.35 。我们收入家园币可以高效率的回收股本。

加币是不断贬值的资产,只是临时过渡货币,这是家园币系统有任何加币收入之后,立即转化成其他资产的原因。
 
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如果1月20号定不下来,到3月4号总统定下之前,VP,HS代理总统

浏览附件648079
我刚才还谷歌了“acting president 2021”, 几乎没有实质性或者主流,哪怕半主流的新闻报道或者好文章出现。所以,我,我只是说我本人,不相信川普能当选。其实只要开一个“川普币”即可。“拜登币”应该取消,等于白送增值家园币。

谁还继续相信川普继任,直接去买“川普币”即可。看看主流新闻,应该已有答案。

再去看看1960年以及2000年总统大选结果的纷争的历史结果,一般可以看出端倪。那两年的纷争,尼克松和戈尔都是站出前台讲很多话,至少来力争。而这次,川普呢,除了大选结果刚出来前几天,其后他本人几乎对此不提了。除了他用了一两个律师在前台吼了几句(这个youtube上有),还有就是你一直追随的tweet啊facebook的博主那些人。

他本人都沉默了。我都怀疑他一看拜登要上台了,“天要下雨,。。。”,那“你就接手干吧” (我猜他的腹语)。。。

我从来不看tweet和facebook,所以说我看得不够全面。

顺便提一下,我喜欢川普,远多于拜登。理由很多。
 
最后编辑: 2021-01-03

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