中文我也会谷歌
期待更进一步的原始资料
加拿大马上要打了,
了解清楚对我们很重要。
On 5 February 2021 we published a clarification to this piece. It is available here. Five weeks ago, when I raised questions about the results of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s covid-19 [...]More...
blogs.bmj.com
Suspected covid-19”
All attention has focused on the dramatic efficacy results: Pfizer reported 170 PCR confirmed covid-19 cases, split 8 to 162 between vaccine and placebo groups. But these numbers were dwarfed by a category of disease called “suspected covid-19”—those with symptomatic covid-19 that were not PCR confirmed. According to
FDA’s report on Pfizer’s vaccine, there were “3410 total cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study population, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.”
With 20 times more suspected than confirmed cases, this category of disease cannot be ignored simply because there was no positive PCR test result. Indeed this makes it all the more urgent to understand. A rough estimate of vaccine efficacy against developing covid-19 symptoms, with or without a positive PCR test result, would be a relative risk reduction of 19% (see footnote)—far below the 50% effectiveness threshold for authorization set
by regulators. Even after removing cases occurring within 7 days of vaccination (409 on Pfizer’s vaccine vs. 287 on placebo), which should include the majority of symptoms due to short-term vaccine reactogenicity, vaccine efficacy remains low: 29% (see footnote).
所有注意力都集中在惊人的功效结果上:辉瑞报告了170例PCR确诊的covid-19病例,疫苗和安慰剂组之间分为8到162个。但是,这些数字与一种称为“可疑covid-19”的疾病类别相形见———那些未经PCR证实的有症状covid-19的疾病。根据FDA关于辉瑞疫苗的报告,“在整个研究人群中共有3410例可疑但未经证实的covid-19病例,疫苗组发生了1594例,而安慰剂组发生了1816例。”
可疑病例比确诊病例多20倍,
仅因为没有阳性PCR检测结果,就不能忽略这类疾病。确实,这使得了解它变得更加紧迫。粗略估计疫苗对付产生covid-19症状的疫苗效力,无论是否有阳性PCR测试结果,都可以使相对危险度降低19%(见脚注),远低于监管机构设定的50%有效阈值。即使消除了在接种后7天内发生的病例(辉瑞疫苗上为409例,安慰剂上为287例)(其中应包括由于短期疫苗反应原性引起的大多数症状),疫苗的功效仍然很低:29%(请参阅脚注)。