- 主题发起人 深圳老虎先生
- 发布时间 2012-05-04
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回复: 并非耸人听闻，大胆预测：二至三年内，大温地区的公寓市场将会一塌糊涂
贴上来，以后细看：
Prices continue to rise in Canada's two largest real estate markets, but a closer look at the numbers shows two housing markets headed in different directions.
Both cities have been singled out by the Canadian Real Estate Association for either skewing the national numbers higher and lower in recent months. And both cities remain among the hottest real estate markets in the country.
And the similarities don't end there.
Resale prices move higher
On the surface, new data from real estate boards in the two markets shows prices for resale homes are indeed still rising. In Toronto, the average price of a resale home was $517,556 in April an 8.5 per cent increase from the same month a year earlier.
Real Estate Mapping average home prices across Canada Where housing costs have gone up, down or stalled
The average price in Vancouver, meanwhile, was $683,800 in April, up 3.7 per cent compared to a year ago.
Rising prices are broadly perceived to be the surest sign of a buoyant housing market, but the number of homes sold and the number of homes listed for sale tell a different story.
In Vancouver, there were 2,799 sales on the Multiple Listings Service last month. That's a 13.2 per cent decline from the 3,225 homes sold the same month a year earlier. Indeed, the number of homes sold in April in Vancouver is the lowest total for that month since 2001, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) noted in a release this week.
"Although April sales were below what's typical for the month, we continue to see … a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,” REBGV president Eugen Klein said.
On a square-foot basis, new condo prices in Toronto declined in the first quarter of 2012. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)
Others are not so sure. Real estate analyst Ben Rabidoux with M Partners says the drop-off in sales even as more homes come on the market is a trend worth noting. New Vancouver listings totaled 6,056 in April, more than double the number of homes sold and a 3.6 per cent increase on the level a year earlier.
The new listings figure is 6.7 per cent above the 10-year average for the month.
"This is something I've been watching for a while," Rabidoux said. "Inventory is ratcheting up even as sales are falling."
An increase in listings can sometimes be a sign of a market top, as people are eager to sell to lock in gains they've earned in a widely acknowledged strong housing market.
If the level of willing buyers for all those new listings can't keep up, it can create a buyer's market with more sellers than buyers. Prices are still in positive territory but that's unlikely to continue if such a large gap between buyers and sellers persists.
Contrast that with Toronto, where the number of sales continues to increase at a rapid pace up 18 per cent to 10,350 in April. Yet the number of listings was up by almost as much, nearly 15 per cent to 16,436.
To be sure, a change in the market's overall direction isn't showing up yet in prices. The numbers suggest there's still ample demand for housing in Canada's largest city.
"Interest in single-detached homes has been very high, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions," Toronto Real Estate Board president Richard Silver said. Prices for detached homes in the GTA were up nine per cent in the month, TREB noted in a release this week.
If there's any weakness in the Toronto market, it's likely in the condo sector, Rabidoux said. The average price of a condo across the 416 and 905 area codes was $339,978 in April, up four per cent.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty noted the city's condo market was one of the government's primary concerns in wanting to rein in control of Canada's national housing agency last week.
On a square-foot basis, new condo prices actually declined in Toronto in the first quarter of 2012. That's the first time that's happened since 2009, Rabidoux said.
"Condos are usually the canary in the coal mine," he said. "The whole Toronto story feels like it's been recycled from Vancouver 18 months ago."
贴上来，以后细看：
Prices continue to rise in Canada's two largest real estate markets, but a closer look at the numbers shows two housing markets headed in different directions.
Both cities have been singled out by the Canadian Real Estate Association for either skewing the national numbers higher and lower in recent months. And both cities remain among the hottest real estate markets in the country.
And the similarities don't end there.
Resale prices move higher
On the surface, new data from real estate boards in the two markets shows prices for resale homes are indeed still rising. In Toronto, the average price of a resale home was $517,556 in April an 8.5 per cent increase from the same month a year earlier.
Real Estate Mapping average home prices across Canada Where housing costs have gone up, down or stalledThe average price in Vancouver, meanwhile, was $683,800 in April, up 3.7 per cent compared to a year ago.
Rising prices are broadly perceived to be the surest sign of a buoyant housing market, but the number of homes sold and the number of homes listed for sale tell a different story.
In Vancouver, there were 2,799 sales on the Multiple Listings Service last month. That's a 13.2 per cent decline from the 3,225 homes sold the same month a year earlier. Indeed, the number of homes sold in April in Vancouver is the lowest total for that month since 2001, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) noted in a release this week.
"Although April sales were below what's typical for the month, we continue to see … a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,” REBGV president Eugen Klein said.
Others are not so sure. Real estate analyst Ben Rabidoux with M Partners says the drop-off in sales even as more homes come on the market is a trend worth noting. New Vancouver listings totaled 6,056 in April, more than double the number of homes sold and a 3.6 per cent increase on the level a year earlier.
The new listings figure is 6.7 per cent above the 10-year average for the month.
"This is something I've been watching for a while," Rabidoux said. "Inventory is ratcheting up even as sales are falling."
An increase in listings can sometimes be a sign of a market top, as people are eager to sell to lock in gains they've earned in a widely acknowledged strong housing market.
If the level of willing buyers for all those new listings can't keep up, it can create a buyer's market with more sellers than buyers. Prices are still in positive territory but that's unlikely to continue if such a large gap between buyers and sellers persists.
Contrast that with Toronto, where the number of sales continues to increase at a rapid pace up 18 per cent to 10,350 in April. Yet the number of listings was up by almost as much, nearly 15 per cent to 16,436.
'Condos are usually the canary in the coal mine.'Ben Rabidoux, housing analyst
An increase in listings is a relatively new trend in Toronto, and it mirrors what happened in Vancouver about a year ago, Rabidoux notes. "It hasn't been substantial enough to make a dent yet, but it's noteworthy because that's what happened in Vancouver," he said. "Listings took off before sales died."To be sure, a change in the market's overall direction isn't showing up yet in prices. The numbers suggest there's still ample demand for housing in Canada's largest city.
"Interest in single-detached homes has been very high, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions," Toronto Real Estate Board president Richard Silver said. Prices for detached homes in the GTA were up nine per cent in the month, TREB noted in a release this week.
If there's any weakness in the Toronto market, it's likely in the condo sector, Rabidoux said. The average price of a condo across the 416 and 905 area codes was $339,978 in April, up four per cent.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty noted the city's condo market was one of the government's primary concerns in wanting to rein in control of Canada's national housing agency last week.
On a square-foot basis, new condo prices actually declined in Toronto in the first quarter of 2012. That's the first time that's happened since 2009, Rabidoux said.
"Condos are usually the canary in the coal mine," he said. "The whole Toronto story feels like it's been recycled from Vancouver 18 months ago."
回复: 并非耸人听闻，大胆预测：二至三年内，大温地区的公寓市场将会一塌糊涂
大众可以接受的价格水平是多少啊,任何时候人们看待房价都是以多少年前的房价为基准来判断合不合理可以不可以接受,不是吗?如果你去大街上采访问问房价可以接受的水平,那毫无疑问大家都会说5年前10年前20年前的价格才合理才能接受,10年后你去问那现在的房价就是合理的可以接受的,所以,房价合不合理能不能接受不是以大众的意志为转移的.你不接受它该涨还会涨,不管它涨还是跌都是合理的,我买不起陆虎可我不会说它的价格不合理,因为有人买的起,不能因为我买不起就说它不合理,就这么简单.可很多人却不明白.
回复: 并非耸人听闻，大胆预测：二至三年内，大温地区的公寓市场将会一塌糊涂
买也买好了，这个预测对我没用了。再说，就个45W的TH，能跌倒哪里去呢？一塌糊涂的跌个50%？也就20多W而已。大耗子5%跌一下就不止20多W了。
是TH跌50%的可能性大，还是大耗子跌5%的可能性大？
买也买好了，这个预测对我没用了。再说，就个45W的TH，能跌倒哪里去呢？一塌糊涂的跌个50%？也就20多W而已。大耗子5%跌一下就不止20多W了。
是TH跌50%的可能性大，还是大耗子跌5%的可能性大？
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