老外朋友刚发过来的，有道理：
Not conjecture, not a meme, just math. Re-post:
If you're wondering why Public Health keeps saying the window is closing to stop the spread, here's why. The numbers tell us the reality. In Italy, on Feb 20, they had 4 confirmed cases. By March 15, less than a month, they had 24747 cases. Each day they had an average 27% increase.
In USA, on March 2, they had 100 cases. By March 15, in less than 2 weeks, they had 3680 cases. They are at a 32% daily increase.
In the UK, on March 5, they had 116 cases. By March 15, in 10 days, they had 1391 cases. They have a 29% daily increase.
In Iran, on Feb 25, they had 95 cases. By March 15, in less than a month, they had 13938 cases. Iran is at a 32% daily increase
The average daily increase over 4 countries is 30%.
Canada and Alberta is following this trend. Two days ago Alberta had 29 cases, then the next day 39 cases, then the next day 56 cases. The average trend is a daily increase of over 34%. Currently in Canada we have 341 cases. In 2 weeks at the end of March we are estimated to have 22700 cases in Canada.
In Alberta we have 56 cases. We are estimated by end of March to have 3732 cases in Alberta. If 10% of these cases require ICU, that is 373 ICU beds needed. The province only has 300 ICU beds across the entire province capable of intubation.
That means in just 2 weeks our entire health care system could be overwhelmed and we will be faced with questions of who lives and who dies.
The government is not overreacting when they put bans and restrictions in place. This is why the window to stop the spread is very narrow and why strict restrictions and closures are necessary. This is why we have to follow the regulations of government as our civic duty. We need a healthy amount of fear and understanding at this time, not panic, and not complacency, but the right kind of fear that leads to timely action.
