我错了， 2017年度的房价我预测的不准。。

[Horse Dragoon]

http://forum.iask.ca/threads/2年了没有预测房价，-今天重操旧业预测2017-2020房价。.810904/

上面是前年底的预测连接：

我估的是涨 17.8%， 结果今天的结果出来是 12.7%。：

TORONTO — The Toronto Real Estate Board says home sales in the Greater Toronto Area fell 18.3 per cent last year compared with a record pace set in 2016.

There were 92,394 sales through its MLS system in 2017, down from 113,040 in the previous year.

The board says there were record sales in the first quarter of last year, followed by a decline in the middle two quarters before sales picked up in the last three months of the year.

The average selling price for 2017 was $822,681, up 12.7 per cent compared with 2016.

The board says sales in December totalled 4,930, down from 5,305 in the final month of 2016.

The average price for the last month of 2017 was $735,021, up from $730,125 a year earlier.

 

[Horse Dragoon]

主要是 5月出台了政府的打压政策， 否则可能就是我的数字了。


这是继2015 和 2016 连续涨 10% 和 17.3% 后， 又一次的 双位数涨幅，

我猜 2018年将调整到 10% 以下。

 

[sabrina2011]

政策调控，无法预测

 

[jjsheng]

最终的百分比没有那么重要，重要的是趋势，如果现在是趋势是下跌，而年初的大幅涨价会拉平最后的数据的。

 

[juicegoose]

人活着为一个由几片破木板搭成的硬帐篷劳心劳神，可怜啊...

 

[hellowinter]

别说一年，我下一分钟将会发生什么事不知道， 房子自住，管他价格。
5yujianni.com 我遇见你 ... 走到底， 一起脱单吧！

 

[Horse Dragoon]

人活着为一个由几片破木板搭成的硬帐篷劳心劳神，可怜啊...

好奇你睡山洞里？

 

[波波KIKO]

多伦多房屋价格连续第七个月下滑


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...es-fall-for-seventh-month-as-lending-tightens

多伦多房地产局周四公布的数据显示，12月份的房屋价格指数连续第七个月下降，比11月份下降0.2％。自五月以来该指数已下跌8.9％ -数据可以追溯到2000年的历史上最大的七个月下降，.......................................

 

[jjsheng]

好奇你睡山洞里？

龙哥这是啥逻辑？人家可以睡在房车里不？

 

[Horse Dragoon]

龙哥这是啥逻辑？人家可以睡在房车里不？

房车也算是带轮子的房子啊，

 

[czyonnet1]

价格的事情应该看年底的时点价格，而不是年平均价格吧？根据楼上兄弟的bloomberg数据，价格只比去年上涨了０.７％而已。

he benchmark home price index fell in December for the seventh consecutive month, down 0.2 percent from November, according to data released Thursday by the Toronto Real Estate Board. The index has fallen 8.9 percent since May -- the largest seven-month decline in the history of data going back to 2000. The average price fell 3.5 percent from the previous month to C$735,021 ($586,000) and was up just 0.7 percent from a year earlier.

http://forum.iask.ca/threads/2年了没有预测房价，-今天重操旧业预测2017-2020房价。.810904/

上面是前年底的预测连接：

我估的是涨 17.8%， 结果今天的结果出来是 12.7%。：

TORONTO — The Toronto Real Estate Board says home sales in the Greater Toronto Area fell 18.3 per cent last year compared with a record pace set in 2016.

There were 92,394 sales through its MLS system in 2017, down from 113,040 in the previous year.

The board says there were record sales in the first quarter of last year, followed by a decline in the middle two quarters before sales picked up in the last three months of the year.

The average selling price for 2017 was $822,681, up 12.7 per cent compared with 2016.

The board says sales in December totalled 4,930, down from 5,305 in the final month of 2016.

The average price for the last month of 2017 was $735,021, up from $730,125 a year earlier.

 

[jjsheng]

不过还是该给龙哥点赞，有错就认。

 

[qxxq]

主要是 5月出台了政府的打压政策， 否则可能就是我的数字了。


这是继2015 和 2016 连续涨 10% 和 17.3% 后， 又一次的 双位数涨幅，

我猜 2018年将调整到 10% 以下。

如果不是打压政策，可能就22%或27%了。

 

[may-bai]

楼主预测一下2018年会怎么样？

 

[茹妹]

马版主，这都要道歉的话，那些年年喊跌的是不是应该学国足的官方微博，把对不起挂在签名档里面啊？

 

[梦中梦]

2015年及以前买的独立屋反正都没亏。2011-2013年间买的，多数涨50%到100%。

没办法，钱不值钱了；物价基本上也涨了这么多。最低工资比10年前也翻了一倍。

 

[yyddss]

马版主，这都要道歉的话，那些年年喊跌的是不是应该学国足的官方微博，把对不起挂在签名档里面啊？

国足微博真这样啊？

 

[Horse Dragoon]

价格的事情应该看年底的时点价格，而不是年平均价格吧？根据楼上兄弟的bloomberg数据，价格只比去年上涨了０.７％而已。

he benchmark home price index fell in December for the seventh consecutive month, down 0.2 percent from November, according to data released Thursday by the Toronto Real Estate Board. The index has fallen 8.9 percent since May -- the largest seven-month decline in the history of data going back to 2000. The average price fell 3.5 percent from the previous month to C$735,021 ($586,000) and was up just 0.7 percent from a year earlier.

不对的， 你这个是 12月份一个月的指标价，比2016年12月份的 同比。

民间和房产局一直用平均价报告， 年度均价是 12个月的月均价乘以每个月的销量的总和， 去除以全年的销量总和，即算术平均值。

 

[Horse Dragoon]

楼主预测一下2018年会怎么样？

估计在 5% --10%

 

[jjsheng]

估计在 5% --10%

北，战；北，战；北，战。