- 主题发起人 Holmes
- 发布时间 2008-10-10
，搞怕了都，在5.29的时候战战兢兢换了1万，结果现在又到5.6几，好像我从来都不赶趟啊
回复: 加元兑人民币汇率过去3-5年与未来3-5年的走势
[FONT=宋体]本周由于加拿大没有什么重要的国内经济消息，并且投资者避险心理开始释放缓和，4月15日，资金突然大量涌入股市。CAD兑USD一度升至83.24美分，创今年1月12日以来最高水平，最后收于83.11美分(4月14日收于82.37美分)。而就在3月9日时，CAD兑USD仅76.53美分，创2004年9月份以来最低水平。CAD兑CNY也同步体现。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]4[/FONT][FONT=宋体]月15日[/FONT][FONT=宋体]，CAD汇率的变动可谓是一路跟随着北美股市的走势。S&P/TSX综合指数在该天早期时下跌1%，收盘时回升，同时美国股指也普遍看涨。CAD与美国股市几乎在下午早期时同时达到最高峰。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]虽然美国消费者价格和工业生产等大半经济数据不看好，但美国一些领域的经济活动已开始显现稳定的迹象。经济下滑趋缓，一些积极的数据开始显现，于是人们又开始获得勇气进行风险资产的投资。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]本周由于加拿大没有什么重要的国内经济消息，并且投资者避险心理开始释放缓和，4月15日，资金突然大量涌入股市。CAD兑USD一度升至83.24美分，创今年1月12日以来最高水平，最后收于83.11美分(4月14日收于82.37美分)。而就在3月9日时，CAD兑USD仅76.53美分，创2004年9月份以来最低水平。CAD兑CNY也同步体现。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]4[/FONT][FONT=宋体]月15日[/FONT][FONT=宋体]，CAD汇率的变动可谓是一路跟随着北美股市的走势。S&P/TSX综合指数在该天早期时下跌1%，收盘时回升，同时美国股指也普遍看涨。CAD与美国股市几乎在下午早期时同时达到最高峰。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]虽然美国消费者价格和工业生产等大半经济数据不看好，但美国一些领域的经济活动已开始显现稳定的迹象。经济下滑趋缓，一些积极的数据开始显现，于是人们又开始获得勇气进行风险资产的投资。[/FONT]
回复: 加元兑人民币汇率过去3-5年与未来3-5年的走势
美元之所以在前段时间在印钞机开动的情况下逆市走强是因为其避难所的地位. 随着经济好转,人们的风险接受能力的增加,美元就会开始走弱,加元就会走强.今年加元的走势非常接近SP500指数。
根据bloomberg的资料，在本季度美元兑加元会反弹到1.26的水平，然后会在2010年年底前跌到1.16的水平。如果美元兑人民币的汇率保持6.83不变的话，那么就是说5.42左右就将是今后2年内加元兑人民币的最低点了。
美元之所以在前段时间在印钞机开动的情况下逆市走强是因为其避难所的地位. 随着经济好转,人们的风险接受能力的增加,美元就会开始走弱,加元就会走强.今年加元的走势非常接近SP500指数。
根据bloomberg的资料，在本季度美元兑加元会反弹到1.26的水平，然后会在2010年年底前跌到1.16的水平。如果美元兑人民币的汇率保持6.83不变的话，那么就是说5.42左右就将是今后2年内加元兑人民币的最低点了。
回复: 加元兑人民币汇率过去3-5年与未来3-5年的走势
以上全部原文转载如下，供各位专家及同学研究分析：
[FONT=宋体]Canadian Currency Weakens as Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体][FONT=宋体]April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar depreciated for a second day against its U.S. counterpart as a government report showed the annual inflation rate unexpectedly slowed last month. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]“We’re going to see inflation hugging bottom for a good long time,” said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital Inc., a unit of Canada’s third-largest bank. “The markets are fixated on what the Bank of Canada is going to do next week.” [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, weakened 0.7 percent to C$1.2156 per U.S. dollar at 4:17 p.m. in Toronto, from C$1.2073 yesterday. One Canadian dollar purchases 82.27 U.S. cents. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The annualized increase in consumer prices was 1.2 percent in March, compared with 1.4 percent in the previous month, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The median forecast of 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for the rate to remain at 1.4 percent. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The Bank of Canada will leave its interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent when policy makers meet on April 21, according to the median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank cut the benchmark rate last month from 1 percent. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]“All eyes await Tuesday’s Bank of Canada meeting,” said Firas Askari, head currency trader in Toronto at BMO Nesbitt Burns, a unit of Bank of Montreal. “On its merits, the Canadian dollar should be a bit better.” [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Governor Mark Carney is due to announce guidelines on April 23 about quantitative easing, a policy in which a central bank buys government debt to try to revive economic growth. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Weekly Gain [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The loonie reached C$1.1983 yesterday, the strongest since Jan. 12. It gained 0.8 percent over the past five days, the third straight weekly advance, as investors ventured into riskier assets such as stocks and commodity-linked currencies on speculation a global economic slowdown may be bottoming. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week the “sharp decline” in the U.S. economy is easing. The Group of 20 nations this month boosted the International Monetary Fund’s resources. U.S. banks including Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. posted earnings that topped analysts’ forecasts. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Canada[/FONT][FONT=宋体]’s primary stock gauge, the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index, rose 1 percent today. It has climbed 24.7 percent since reaching the lowest in more than five years on March 9. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which added 0.5 percent today, has gained 28.5 percent since March 9. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Construction Drops [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The Canadian dollar has a correlation coefficient of 0.72 against the S&P 500 this year, higher than the 0.49 for crude oil and the 0.55 for copper, according to Bloomberg data. A correlation of 1.0 would mean the measures move in lock step. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Non-residential construction in Canada fell 1.8 percent to C$10.8 billion ($8.9 billion) in the first quarter, the first decline since 2004 and the latest sign that the country’s recession is crimping businesses spending. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Canadian bonds have lost investors 1.3 percent this month, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. Indexes, as stock markets rallied and debt supply swelled. The yield on the two-year note climbed four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.16 percent today. The price of the 1.25 percent security due in June 2011 fell 9 cents to C$100.19. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The loonie will weaken to C$1.26 against the U.S. dollar this quarter before rebounding to C$1.16 by the end of 2010, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 38 analysts and economists. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体][/FONT]
[/FONT]
以上全部原文转载如下，供各位专家及同学研究分析：
[FONT=宋体]Canadian Currency Weakens as Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体][FONT=宋体]April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar depreciated for a second day against its U.S. counterpart as a government report showed the annual inflation rate unexpectedly slowed last month. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]“We’re going to see inflation hugging bottom for a good long time,” said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital Inc., a unit of Canada’s third-largest bank. “The markets are fixated on what the Bank of Canada is going to do next week.” [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, weakened 0.7 percent to C$1.2156 per U.S. dollar at 4:17 p.m. in Toronto, from C$1.2073 yesterday. One Canadian dollar purchases 82.27 U.S. cents. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The annualized increase in consumer prices was 1.2 percent in March, compared with 1.4 percent in the previous month, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The median forecast of 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for the rate to remain at 1.4 percent. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The Bank of Canada will leave its interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent when policy makers meet on April 21, according to the median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank cut the benchmark rate last month from 1 percent. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]“All eyes await Tuesday’s Bank of Canada meeting,” said Firas Askari, head currency trader in Toronto at BMO Nesbitt Burns, a unit of Bank of Montreal. “On its merits, the Canadian dollar should be a bit better.” [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Governor Mark Carney is due to announce guidelines on April 23 about quantitative easing, a policy in which a central bank buys government debt to try to revive economic growth. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Weekly Gain [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The loonie reached C$1.1983 yesterday, the strongest since Jan. 12. It gained 0.8 percent over the past five days, the third straight weekly advance, as investors ventured into riskier assets such as stocks and commodity-linked currencies on speculation a global economic slowdown may be bottoming. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week the “sharp decline” in the U.S. economy is easing. The Group of 20 nations this month boosted the International Monetary Fund’s resources. U.S. banks including Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. posted earnings that topped analysts’ forecasts. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Canada[/FONT][FONT=宋体]’s primary stock gauge, the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index, rose 1 percent today. It has climbed 24.7 percent since reaching the lowest in more than five years on March 9. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which added 0.5 percent today, has gained 28.5 percent since March 9. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Construction Drops [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The Canadian dollar has a correlation coefficient of 0.72 against the S&P 500 this year, higher than the 0.49 for crude oil and the 0.55 for copper, according to Bloomberg data. A correlation of 1.0 would mean the measures move in lock step. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Non-residential construction in Canada fell 1.8 percent to C$10.8 billion ($8.9 billion) in the first quarter, the first decline since 2004 and the latest sign that the country’s recession is crimping businesses spending. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Canadian bonds have lost investors 1.3 percent this month, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. Indexes, as stock markets rallied and debt supply swelled. The yield on the two-year note climbed four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.16 percent today. The price of the 1.25 percent security due in June 2011 fell 9 cents to C$100.19. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]The loonie will weaken to C$1.26 against the U.S. dollar this quarter before rebounding to C$1.16 by the end of 2010, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 38 analysts and economists. [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体][/FONT]
[/FONT]
回复: 加元兑人民币汇率过去3-5年与未来3-5年的走势
[FONT=宋体]CAD[/FONT][FONT=宋体]近期内不会大幅升值[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]上周四CAD兑USD升至82.84美分，创三个月以来最高水平。该上涨趋势不太可能继续下去。周五中午时，CAD已稍稍跌至82.60美分。目前美国石油库存量创18年来最高水平，这将限制CAD的走高。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]最近美国能源情报署(U.S. Energy Information Administration)报告称，美国石油库存量创1990年9月份以来最高水平，精制石油产品的消费下降5.2%。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]CAD[/FONT][FONT=宋体]之前的走高是因为在交叉汇率(cross rate)下，CAD与其它非USD货币相比更有吸引力。但是，全球消极经济数据的减少并不意味着经济会积极增长。例如，虽然今年CRB金属期货指数上涨17%，但是全球经济还是在继续缩水。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]外汇市场也许会被中国政府5,850亿USD的经济刺激政策激活，因为投资者认为中国对商品的需求量或将恢复。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]CAD[/FONT][FONT=宋体]近期内不会大幅升值[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]上周四CAD兑USD升至82.84美分，创三个月以来最高水平。该上涨趋势不太可能继续下去。周五中午时，CAD已稍稍跌至82.60美分。目前美国石油库存量创18年来最高水平，这将限制CAD的走高。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]最近美国能源情报署(U.S. Energy Information Administration)报告称，美国石油库存量创1990年9月份以来最高水平，精制石油产品的消费下降5.2%。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]CAD[/FONT][FONT=宋体]之前的走高是因为在交叉汇率(cross rate)下，CAD与其它非USD货币相比更有吸引力。但是，全球消极经济数据的减少并不意味着经济会积极增长。例如，虽然今年CRB金属期货指数上涨17%，但是全球经济还是在继续缩水。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]外汇市场也许会被中国政府5,850亿USD的经济刺激政策激活，因为投资者认为中国对商品的需求量或将恢复。[/FONT]
回复: 加元兑人民币汇率过去3-5年与未来3-5年的走势
[FONT=宋体]Update: [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Canadian Currency Depreciates to One-Week Low as Stocks, Crude Oil Tumble Canada’s currency dropped to the lowest level in more than a week as stocks and crude oil fell and the Bank of Canada prepared to make a decision on interest rates and issue a report on monetary policy.[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体][FONT=宋体]Yuan(CNY) Forwards Reach Three-Week Low as Economic Slump Deters Appreciation China’s yuan forwards slid to a three-week low on speculation the government won’t resume currency appreciation until the economy shows stronger signs of recovery.[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Update: [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]Canadian Currency Depreciates to One-Week Low as Stocks, Crude Oil Tumble Canada’s currency dropped to the lowest level in more than a week as stocks and crude oil fell and the Bank of Canada prepared to make a decision on interest rates and issue a report on monetary policy.[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体][FONT=宋体]Yuan(CNY) Forwards Reach Three-Week Low as Economic Slump Deters Appreciation China’s yuan forwards slid to a three-week low on speculation the government won’t resume currency appreciation until the economy shows stronger signs of recovery.[/FONT][/FONT]
回复: 加元兑人民币汇率过去3-5年与未来3-5年的走势
[FONT=宋体]最近一段时期以来，CNY对USD已经在悄然改变去年下半年后的贬值趋势，开始扭转为升值预期。这预示着外汇将重新流入中国，国内资产价格有望再度大幅度上扬。 [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]3[/FONT][FONT=宋体]月24日[/FONT][FONT=宋体]中午，中国银行全球金融市场部发布了紧急预警：CNY于当日出现反转升值迹象。当天的早盘，1年期NDFUSD对CNY远期汇率为6.76，已经低于即期汇率6.83的水平，这意味着1年内的CNY对USD贬值预期反转为升值预期，结束了自2008年9月以来维持长达6个月的CNY贬值预期。[/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]最近一段时期以来，CNY对USD已经在悄然改变去年下半年后的贬值趋势，开始扭转为升值预期。这预示着外汇将重新流入中国，国内资产价格有望再度大幅度上扬。 [/FONT]
[FONT=宋体]3[/FONT][FONT=宋体]月24日[/FONT][FONT=宋体]中午，中国银行全球金融市场部发布了紧急预警：CNY于当日出现反转升值迹象。当天的早盘，1年期NDFUSD对CNY远期汇率为6.76，已经低于即期汇率6.83的水平，这意味着1年内的CNY对USD贬值预期反转为升值预期，结束了自2008年9月以来维持长达6个月的CNY贬值预期。[/FONT]
