回复: 加元澳元。。。。。。。。。
Loonie no longer eyeing parity, may he heading toward 90-cent US level: analysts
By The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - Canada's once buff and muscular loonie is acting more like a 97-pound weakling these days.
At the beginning of the year, analysts were confident in forecasting a loonie that was heading from strength to strength and likely to reach parity and beyond by summer.
But after a brief flirtation with parity this spring, the loonie has been anything but a world-beater.
Monday, the currency traded slightly lower to fall below 94 cent US for most of the day, about three cents lower than a week earlier. And it could be headed lower still, analysts say, particularly with the bloom coming off the rose of the global economic recovery.
Export Development Canada chief economist Peter Hall believes talk of the loonie hitting and staying above parity this year was always overly flattering to the loonie.
While others saw the dollar continuing to rise, Hall had the currency levelling off to 90-92 cent territory by the end of the year.
His reasoning was that, as a commodity play, the loonie would eventually be hit by the stark reality that reduced production capacity in the global economy poses a downside risk to world prices for oil and base metals.
Other analysts also see near-term weakness in the loonie this year.
But that doesn't mean parity is out of the question. When the global economy does rebound strongly, it will take Canada's dollar with it, they
