Calgary的命运～～

[wolfboy]

[FONT=宋体]2013 Calgary unemployment- Jan: 4.9%,Feb: 5%. March:5.1%[/FONT]
2013人口变化：KMarch，1079。8，+3.2K
[FONT=宋体]2013Edmonton: Jan: 4.3%; Feb:4.4%.March:4.5%[/FONT]

石油重心转往美国 http://forum.iask.ca/showthread.php?t=631192
http://www.chinasmile.net/forums/showthread.php?t=570276&highlight
从目前石油工程公司的处境看加拿大人的一根筋问题

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/china-joining-u-s-shale-renaissance-with-40-billion.html
2013-3-6:China Joining U.S. Shale Renaissance With $40 Billion 中国石化投资美国
http://www.leaderpost.com/business/energy/Bakken+pipeline+expansion+project+completed/8048614/story.html
Bakken oil pipeline expansion project completed,The project reversed and expanded an existing pipeline running from Berthold, N.D., to Steelman in south-eastern Saskatchewan, a new 16-inch pipeline from a new terminal near Steelman to the Enbridge Pipelines Inc. mainline terminal near Cromer, Man


[FONT=宋体]日本首次成功在国内开采页岩油[/FONT][FONT=宋体]储量或有[/FONT][FONT=宋体]亿[/FONT][FONT=宋体]桶[/FONT][FONT=宋体]-2012.10[/FONT][http://www.china.com.cn/internationa...t_26697496.htm

Billions of barrels of untapped U.S.oil: http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/04/news/economy/oil_shale_bakken/index.htm

油页岩（oil shale)
http://blog.eastmoney.com/prochina/blog_151011530.html
油页岩（oil shale)(

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20130306/bus103847.asp?source=whatnews2
美国超越沙特成为全球最大液体燃料生产国
2013-3-8
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-15/shell-to-start-chinese-shale-gas-project-development-from-2014.html
Shell to Start Chinese Shale Gas Project Development From 2014

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/us-oil-gas-boom-takes-many-surprise-1C8687459
2013-03-04, US oil and gas boom takes many by surprise

http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/analysis/features/52771-discovery-in-us-india-other-places-threatens-nigeria
2013-03-11
Discovery in US, India, other places threatens Nigeria
The United States Energy Information Agency (EIA), a US-government agency report, showed in 2011, 767,000bbl/d of crude (33%) of Nigeria’s crude exports were sent to the US
As a result, the nation’s crude as a share of total US imports fell to 5 percent in the first half of 2012, down from 10 and 11 percent in the first half of 2011 and 2010, respectively, according to the EIA
Shale oil production has been accelerating in the US, growing from 111,000 barrels per day in 2004 to 553,000 barrels per day in 2011 (equivalent to a growth rate of around 26% annually), according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) 2013 report on ‘Shale Oil; the next revolution.’ As a result, the US oil import is forecast to fall in 2013 to its lowest levels for over 25 years.
Investment is already underway to characterise, quantify and develop shale oil resources outside the US, Argentina, Russia and China.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/124567/Musings_PwC_Says_Shale_Oil_The_Next_Energy_Revolution_Really
PwC Says Shale Oil 'The Next Energy Revolution' - Really?
Exhibit 3. Oil Prices Could Fall Significantly
By using the National Institute Global Econometric Model, PwC attempts to project the impact of its two price scenarios (a decline of $33 or $50 per barrel in real oil prices) on global economic activity

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/gulf-economy-shale-idUSL6N0BMCAL20130306
MIDEAST MONEY-Shale oil may shift economic policies in nervous Gulf
2013.3.6-OPEC decided in Vienna not to change its output policy, and since then most Gulf officials in public have stayed sanguine about the prospect of new technologies unlocking hundreds of billions of barrels of oil in the United States and elsewhere.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-111/issue-3a/general-interest/api-cabinet-nominees-will-impact-energy.html
2013-3-11:API: Cabinet nominees will impact energy policies
"These gains in oil and gas production will create thousands of new jobs, and help spur economic growth for a generation"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-china-shale-idUSBRE9290GR20130310
2013-3-10: China's ragtag shale army a long way from revolution
Shale gas: average cost per well of $2.7-$3.7 million in the United States

http://news.ca.msn.com/canada/shoal-point-inks-newfoundland-shale-oil-deal-1
2013-2-18 As the first company exploring for an unconventional play in offshore Newfoundland, they've given us a lot of discretion and flexibility to prove that this could be a commercial venture.
加拿大的first company exploring shale oil。。现在进行时。。

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Lamphier+Direct+threat+Canadian+economy+posed+shale+production/7973383/story.html 2013-2-15 Indeed, if current trends continue, the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2017, the International Energy Agency has predicted. If it spreads, it could have huge implications not only for the North American oil industry and for Canada-U.S. trade, but for the entire global economy

2013.2.19 http://www.canadianbusiness.com/companies-and-industries/is-vancouver-the-new-calgary/
Is Vancouver the new Calgary?
2013-5-25
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/25/the-most-important-consequence-of-the-us-shale-oil.aspx
Implications for energy companies

Already, some Canadian operators have scaled back their investments because of sky-high operating costs and depressed prices for Canadian crude oil. For instance, Talisman Energy (NYSE: TAL ) , Canada's sixth largest independent oil producer, slashed its capital budget forecast for the year by 25%, while Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ ) said it will scale back its spending on thermal-sands production, a process that uses steam to separate bitumen from sand underground

还要需要实事来证明，目前都是推测。。

1. Calgary的短期命运将在今年或者明年明朗～～
最大的可能性是oil sand被shale oil打败，no more booming,投资会萎缩，会有layoff;

2. 如果今年底，或者明年,crue oil 在~$70/barrel；如果真的发生mass layoff，就会数年都不会恢复景气。。。

3.去年calgary人口净流入是3W，今年前两个月也是3千人净流入/月。。这就是所谓的，房子还有小抢购，人口净流入带来的。。
因为，calgary目前还是好于别的城市。。

4. 如果BC在2014, 2015开始booming，人口到 2017年低于1 million不是不可能的，2015~2017房价会掉的可能性非常大。自住没有关系，买有多套的，供房子压力加大～～

5. 2017年左右，calgary是否Detroit再现就会明朗？？？

影响calgary的对油砂的投资。
许多工程公司的规模之所以从2005年的500人左右，发展到现在的2000~3000人，是因为油砂投资带来的。。
如果新的投资如shale oil能够给投资者带来easy money,油砂的投资就会减少。。再如果crude oil price在$70左右，油公司的流动资金就会有问题，油公司的再投入也会减少。。construction会减少。。
这样的影响一是工程公司人员的就业，二是房产的问题。。

最大影响是：如果BC,saskechewan等周边开始booming，投资和人员就会流走，这个可能在2~3年就可能发生。。
如果人员流走不是特别快和特别多，real estate会逐渐going down,而不会快速下跌；
油砂不会死，只是工程公司如果20%layoff影响就大了。。
2013-03-8,
http://www.chinasmile.net/forums/showthread.php?t=570019
中缅油气管道5月将通，阿省与BC面临挑战
中缅油气管道将于今年5月建成，设计运油（中东）量是2200万吨，天然气量是120亿立方（天然气来源是缅甸，缅甸天然气储量是世界第10，加国是13）。
中缅油气管道是中国油气进口的第3个战略项目，另外两个是中俄与中哈项目。

阿省西线油管道与BC天然气亚洲项目要加快进度，才能增加竞争力。

http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/201...14770072.shtml

 

[sorbuct]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

 

[爱Z无边]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

拭目以待

谢谢狼婆婆信息！

 

[changtong]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

晕，这时机赶得，不能晚几年么？

 

[changtong]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

我不觉得页岩油有多大威胁。

首先污染问题是个悬而未决的问题，其次页岩油的成本也不低，和SAGD不见得有多大成本优势

 

[坚持就是胜利]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

一年前是这样的，现在可不是了。

我不觉得页岩油有多大威胁。

首先污染问题是个悬而未决的问题，其次页岩油的成本也不低，和SAGD不见得有多大成本优势

 

[lindazy]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

天啊，虽然知道您一直算的比较准，但是我真的希望这次不准

 

[mayibanjia]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

Calgary的命运将在今年或者明年明朗～～
最大的可能性是oil sand被shale oil打败，no more booming,投资会萎缩，房价也会掉～～
会有大量layoff，今年底，或者明年。。而且数年不会恢复景气。。。

你是算的，还是分析的？

 

[yilehuli]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

没有永恒的市场,关键要有赚钱的能力,如果市场不好,就换个地方被!
我在想,如果美国真的能能源自给,那么,赫赫,那将是10个阿尔泊塔规模的石油建设啊!!!

 

[neverused]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

严重密切关注中。。。

 

[cavabien]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

啊啊

 

[吴江游者]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

学习了！

 

[ml971316]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

页岩气吧页岩油开采还很困难

 

[cindyjin]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/an...s-change-canadian-oil-230606513--finance.html

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - The U.S. shale oil revolution is forcing Canada's oil sands industry to question whether there is a future in processing its crude into lighter oil, a tried-and-true way of wringing the most money out of a resource considered crucial to the country's prosperity.
Suncor Energy Inc , which nearly 50 years ago pioneered the practice in Canada of mining and then upgrading the oil sands bitumen into refinery-ready light crude at the same site, served notice this month that the era of the integrated project may be ending.
It said it was reexamining a plan to build a multibillion-dollar upgrading plant in northern Alberta and taking a C$1.5 billion ($1.5 billion) charge to account for lower projected cash flow. The reason: cheap oil from North Dakota and elsewhere is making it uneconomical over the long haul to build such complexes.
"Why would you spend billions of dollars to build an upgrader to create a product that is looking to be oversupplied in the markets you can access today?" said Jackie Forrest, director of global oil for consultancy IHS CERA.
The Suncor move is more evidence of a shift from upgrading that is already well underway. Imperial Oil Ltd , for example, is building the C$12.9 billion Kearl development - the next major oil sands project to come online - without a processing plant.
Once considered a sure winner by most Canadians, the oil sands industry is now on the defensive on several fronts, struggling to prove it can deliver its raw materials to refiners at a competitive price and at an acceptable environmental cost
The dilemma over upgrading points to more problems ahead as oil sands producers compete for capital against the developers of the cheaper, less damaging shale oil.
With less-processed heavy oil competing with the increased Bakken flows for pipeline space to U.S. refineries, a glut in Western Canada has built up, generating a wide discount on Canadian crude against benchmark West Texas Intermediate. That has created an immediate problem, not the least for Alberta, the province at the center of Canada's oil industry.
Alberta Premier Alison Redford blames the so-called "bitumen bubble" for a forecast C$6 billion shortfall in revenues in the coming fiscal year. Deep budget cuts are in the offing.
As a result, the province is pushing for ways to shore up its budget against the falling revenue stream, while unions are calling for more upgrading to create jobs.
PRICE DIFFERENTIAL
The industry, however, seems to be moving in the opposite direction. The problem is, building a new upgrader - a tangle of pipes and vessels that transforms raw bitumen into an oil product easily used by standard refineries - costs billions of dollars and may make little sense over the long term.
In the short term, on-site processing would allow producers to boost the price of their product by upgrading it, and the wide price spread between cheap heavy oil and more expensive light crude would mean hefty margins.
Indeed, the gap has recently ballooned to more than $40 a barrel under U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate, compared with a historical differential of less than $20.
But it takes years to build upgrading plants. In the meantime, new pipelines to export markets are expected to be built over the next decade - whether they are big ones such as TransCanada Corp's Keystone XL pipeline or incremental expansions.
If that happens the discount on heavy oil should shrink. That would leave the multibillion-dollar upgrading plants less able to compete with shale oil.
IN THE PIPELINE
To be sure, the Keystone XL project - connecting the oil sands with the U.S. Gulf Coast - is facing a full-scale push back from U.S. environmental groups, and final approval from Washington is not guaranteed.
If the pipeline gets built, it would move 830,000 barrels a day of Alberta crude to Texas refineries, many of which are configured to process the heavier grades that are now imported from Venezuela, Mexico and elsewhere.
On today's pipeline network, it costs about $8.50 a barrel to ship crude to the U.S. Gulf region from Alberta, traders say. When new pipelines are built, the light-heavy oil price spread is expected to come close to the shipping cost.
"You expect those bottlenecks will be gone, and once we get global pricing, we've actually seen fairly narrow differences between light and heavy crude," said IHS's Forrest.
SUNCOR DECISION
Against that backdrop, Suncor says it hasn't made a final decision on the proposed Voyageur upgrader, the centerpiece of its expansion strategy.
"We're looking at all options," Chief Executive Steve Williams said this month. "At one extreme you could go ahead with the project as it is. At the other extreme you could cancel the whole project and go ahead with nothing."
Williams fingered the U.S. shale boom as the main reason for the indecision, as oil coaxed to the surface using hydraulic fracturing does not need expensive upgrading to be run in standard refineries.
Oil production in North Dakota has jumped to 730,000 bpd today from just over 100,000 bpd in 2006, making it the No. 2 oil-producing state after Texas. Large volumes of that crude is transported on the same pipelines as the Alberta oil, contributing to the disappearing spare capacity.
In the past year, both Bakken oil and upgraded light synthetic crude, which have similar specs, have climbed in tandem to around par with WTI, from around $13 a barrel below.
A recent PriceWaterhouseCoopers study said shale oil is likely to make the largest single contribution to total U.S. oil output growth by 2020, and that increased global shale output could lead to lower crude prices than are currently projected.
Those barrels have begun to replace some heavy crude in the U.S. market, squeezing the economics on upgrading plants that would pump out products to compete, said Reynold Tatzlaff, PwC's Canadian energy leader.
NOT DEAD
That's not to say upgrading is dead. Existing plants pump out more than 1 million barrels of light synthetic crude a day. Privately held North West Upgrading Inc and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd are proceeding with a C$5.7 billion stand-alone upgrader and refinery near Edmonton.
But the North West plant will get help from a steady supply of bitumen from the Alberta government as part of an initiative to generate more valued-added dollars. Expansions, such as one that Canadian Natural is planning at its Horizon oil sands project, come cheaper than starting from scratch, though it is not rushing to start the project.
Mike Deising, a spokesman for Alberta Energy Minister Ken Hughes, said he could not comment on various companies eschewing upgraders, saying they all employ different forecasts.
In another trend working against upgrading, oil sands mining is giving way to less-centralized steam-driven production methods, which are less costly to expand and which can ship diluted bitumen directly into the market. Several U.S. refineries have been retooled to run more of the heavy crude.
Meanwhile, notorious construction cost overruns and a string of outages at existing upgraders have raised questions about reliability of returns and operations.
For more than a decade, most tar sands projects in Alberta blew well through their budgets as the rush to develop the resources stretched Alberta's skilled labor pool thin. Companies sought to bolster manpower by importing workers from around the world, and the rush to develop drove up the costs of steel, other materials and equipment.
Several plants proposed before the 2008-2009 financial crisis were canceled, as credit dried up.
"It's been the perception that any and nearly all upgraders have been plagued with fires, maintenance issues, cold weather issues. They're expensive to run, and even more so, they're expensive to build," said Wood Mackenzie analyst Mark Oberstoetter.
(Editing by Frank McGurty, Janet Guttsman and Bob Burgdorfer)

 

[二两油]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

不太可能吧……

 

[JULI98]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

我的天啊,我家娃爹跑去接最后一棒了吗

 

[瑞雪飘飘]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

关注...

 

[pp66]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

油砂的大发展时期已经结束。将来最多是正常生产而没有发展投资的动因。加拿大的石油工业的没落会给加拿大整体经济带来严重的负面影响，alberta可能会成为equalization负贡献的省，进而加拿大全部省的福利都会被大大削减，有些福利应该会被取消，政府职员也会被大大削减。

calgary会成为第二个底特律吗？

 

[BRASSEURS]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

近期关注 Keystone XL .

 

[pp66]

回复: Calgary的命运～～

近期关注 Keystone XL .

keystone xl就算批准，也只能小幅缩小这个gap，根本无法让油砂行业回复活力。核心是加拿大的油砂用户只有美国一家，根本没有议价能力。

除非alberta脱离加拿大，成为美国的一个州。这或许是最不现实但最有效的途径。