这样运输成本也太高了回复: Calgary的命运~~
阿省在考虑通过火车运到阿拉斯加后装船出口!
这样运输成本也太高了回复: Calgary的命运~~
阿省在考虑通过火车运到阿拉斯加后装船出口!
如果能够为中国提供能源又为俄罗斯提供地缘政治的条件,那么答案就很明确了。现在就看政治家是如何斡旋了。回复: Calgary的命运~~
如果美国石油自给,能救alberta的是谁,答案不言自明。
回复: Calgary的命运~~
页岩油开采所需的水平井和压裂并不是什么新技术啊。
所以说只是靠页岩气改变不了ALBERTA的经济局面,石油不同的组分有各自的作用,如果一说石油就只是想着汽车和取暖,那就太……回复: Calgary的命运~~
石油不仅是一种能源物资,更是现代化工业的基石。
退一万步说,即便是新能源大突破了,人人都像史塔克一样挂个小型核聚变了,但那些做模具的PVC那里来?
一个工业的体系不是那么简单就能改变的。
再过几年,SOLARCITY就成替代能源了,石油天然气需求量大减
恍惚之中~~[FONT=宋体]2013 Calgary unemployment- Jan: 4.9%,Feb: 5%. March:5.1%[/FONT]
2013人口变化:KMarch,1079。8,+3.2K
[FONT=宋体]2013Edmonton: Jan: 4.3%; Feb:4.4%.March:4.5%[/FONT]
石油重心转往美国 http://forum.iask.ca/showthread.php?t=631192
http://www.chinasmile.net/forums/showthread.php?t=570276&highlight
从目前石油工程公司的处境看加拿大人的一根筋问题
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/china-joining-u-s-shale-renaissance-with-40-billion.html
2013-3-6:China Joining U.S. Shale Renaissance With $40 Billion 中国石化投资美国
http://www.leaderpost.com/business/energy/Bakken+pipeline+expansion+project+completed/8048614/story.html
Bakken oil pipeline expansion project completed,The project reversed and expanded an existing pipeline running from Berthold, N.D., to Steelman in south-eastern Saskatchewan, a new 16-inch pipeline from a new terminal near Steelman to the Enbridge Pipelines Inc. mainline terminal near Cromer, Man
[FONT=宋体]日本首次成功在国内开采页岩油储量或有亿桶-2012.10[/FONT][http://www.china.com.cn/internationa...t_26697496.htm
Billions of barrels of untapped U.S.oil: http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/04/news/economy/oil_shale_bakken/index.htm
油页岩(oil shale)
http://blog.eastmoney.com/prochina/blog_151011530.html
油页岩(oil shale)(
http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20130306/bus103847.asp?source=whatnews2
美国超越沙特成为全球最大液体燃料生产国
2013-3-8
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-15/shell-to-start-chinese-shale-gas-project-development-from-2014.html
Shell to Start Chinese Shale Gas Project Development From 2014
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/us-oil-gas-boom-takes-many-surprise-1C8687459
2013-03-04, US oil and gas boom takes many by surprise
http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/analysis/features/52771-discovery-in-us-india-other-places-threatens-nigeria
2013-03-11
Discovery in US, India, other places threatens Nigeria
The United States Energy Information Agency (EIA), a US-government agency report, showed in 2011, 767,000bbl/d of crude (33%) of Nigeria’s crude exports were sent to the US
As a result, the nation’s crude as a share of total US imports fell to 5 percent in the first half of 2012, down from 10 and 11 percent in the first half of 2011 and 2010, respectively, according to the EIA
Shale oil production has been accelerating in the US, growing from 111,000 barrels per day in 2004 to 553,000 barrels per day in 2011 (equivalent to a growth rate of around 26% annually), according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) 2013 report on ‘Shale Oil; the next revolution.’ As a result, the US oil import is forecast to fall in 2013 to its lowest levels for over 25 years.
Investment is already underway to characterise, quantify and develop shale oil resources outside the US, Argentina, Russia and China.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/124567/Musings_PwC_Says_Shale_Oil_The_Next_Energy_Revolution_Really
PwC Says Shale Oil 'The Next Energy Revolution' - Really?
Exhibit 3. Oil Prices Could Fall Significantly
By using the National Institute Global Econometric Model, PwC attempts to project the impact of its two price scenarios (a decline of $33 or $50 per barrel in real oil prices) on global economic activity
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/gulf-economy-shale-idUSL6N0BMCAL20130306
MIDEAST MONEY-Shale oil may shift economic policies in nervous Gulf
2013.3.6-OPEC decided in Vienna not to change its output policy, and since then most Gulf officials in public have stayed sanguine about the prospect of new technologies unlocking hundreds of billions of barrels of oil in the United States and elsewhere.
http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-111/issue-3a/general-interest/api-cabinet-nominees-will-impact-energy.html
2013-3-11:API: Cabinet nominees will impact energy policies
"These gains in oil and gas production will create thousands of new jobs, and help spur economic growth for a generation"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-china-shale-idUSBRE9290GR20130310
2013-3-10: China's ragtag shale army a long way from revolution
Shale gas: average cost per well of $2.7-$3.7 million in the United States
http://news.ca.msn.com/canada/shoal-point-inks-newfoundland-shale-oil-deal-1
2013-2-18 As the first company exploring for an unconventional play in offshore Newfoundland, they've given us a lot of discretion and flexibility to prove that this could be a commercial venture.
加拿大的first company exploring shale oil。。现在进行时。。
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Lamphier+Direct+threat+Canadian+economy+posed+shale+production/7973383/story.html 2013-2-15 Indeed, if current trends continue, the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2017, the International Energy Agency has predicted. If it spreads, it could have huge implications not only for the North American oil industry and for Canada-U.S. trade, but for the entire global economy
2013.2.19 http://www.canadianbusiness.com/companies-and-industries/is-vancouver-the-new-calgary/
Is Vancouver the new Calgary?
2013-5-25
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/25/the-most-important-consequence-of-the-us-shale-oil.aspx
Implications for energy companies
Already, some Canadian operators have scaled back their investments because of sky-high operating costs and depressed prices for Canadian crude oil. For instance, Talisman Energy (NYSE: TAL ) , Canada's sixth largest independent oil producer, slashed its capital budget forecast for the year by 25%, while Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ ) said it will scale back its spending on thermal-sands production, a process that uses steam to separate bitumen from sand underground
还要需要实事来证明,目前都是推测。。
1. Calgary的短期命运将在今年或者明年明朗~~
最大的可能性是oil sand被shale oil打败,no more booming,投资会萎缩,会有layoff;
2. 如果今年底,或者明年,crue oil 在~$70/barrel;如果真的发生mass layoff,就会数年都不会恢复景气。。。
3.去年calgary人口净流入是3W,今年前两个月也是3千人净流入/月。。这就是所谓的,房子还有小抢购,人口净流入带来的。。
因为,calgary目前还是好于别的城市。。
4. 如果BC在2014, 2015开始booming,人口到 2017年低于1 million不是不可能的,2015~2017房价会掉的可能性非常大。自住没有关系,买有多套的,供房子压力加大~~
5. 2017年左右,calgary是否Detroit再现就会明朗???
影响calgary的对油砂的投资。
许多工程公司的规模之所以从2005年的500人左右,发展到现在的2000~3000人,是因为油砂投资带来的。。
如果新的投资如shale oil能够给投资者带来easy money,油砂的投资就会减少。。再如果crude oil price在$70左右,油公司的流动资金就会有问题,油公司的再投入也会减少。。construction会减少。。
这样的影响一是工程公司人员的就业,二是房产的问题。。
最大影响是:如果BC,saskechewan等周边开始booming,投资和人员就会流走,这个可能在2~3年就可能发生。。
如果人员流走不是特别快和特别多,real estate会逐渐going down,而不会快速下跌;
油砂不会死,只是工程公司如果20%layoff影响就大了。。
2013-03-8,
http://www.chinasmile.net/forums/showthread.php?t=570019
中缅油气管道5月将通,阿省与BC面临挑战
中缅油气管道将于今年5月建成,设计运油(中东)量是2200万吨,天然气量是120亿立方(天然气来源是缅甸,缅甸天然气储量是世界第10,加国是13)。
中缅油气管道是中国油气进口的第3个战略项目,另外两个是中俄与中哈项目。
阿省西线油管道与BC天然气亚洲项目要加快进度,才能增加竞争力。
http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/201...14770072.shtml
气还是汽?四川的井大多数是汽
现在如何?回复: Calgary的命运~~
我们村(整个地区)已经来了三千五百多石油工人,开工了. 火车每天忙着卸下许多绿色的油管.
一个朋友说他老婆的女友原来租住的地下室一厅三房的单位已经把价格从一千二涨到了两千四,很郁闷,住不起了,只好搬到他们家住. 村外的露营地方也全都被占了,大家都没地方露营,很不开心.
本地开餐馆的华人朋友也关门暂停营业(受不了这么多顾客),到隔壁省度假去了.