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呵呵，最大的机会是持有人民币，借加币，建立加币负债头寸。美元指数100,120-130是两个大关口，估计突破100的可能性很高。
人民币兑加币目前是5.3，两年前是6.3，2018年可能会到4？
最大的机会借加元买中国北上广深的房子。
其次是借加元回调中买美元的航空公司的可转债，或者航空ETF。
- 主题发起人 martinqz
- 发布时间 2014-05-05
呵呵，最大的机会是持有人民币，借加币，建立加币负债头寸。美元指数100,120-130是两个大关口，估计突破100的可能性很高。
人民币兑加币目前是5.3，两年前是6.3，2018年可能会到4？
最大的机会借加元买中国北上广深的房子。
其次是借加元回调中买美元的航空公司的可转债，或者航空ETF。
高盛预测有大幅调整的可能。和聪明资金不谋而合。
Goldman's 2015 S&P 500 Trajectory In 1 Chart: Drop, Pop, & Slop
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2015 15:27 -0500
Not satisfied with merely "nailing the number", Goldman Sachs' David Kostin forecasts the S&P 500's trajectory through 2015. Recognizing, as we did, that Bullish Sentiment is as highs as it gets, Kostin expects short-term weakness during the next month (the drop), earnings growth thanks to lower oil prices into mid-year (the pop), but multiple compression after rate hikes into year-end (the slop)...
S&P 500 has surged 10% since October. Our US equity market Sentiment Indicator now shows an extreme reading of 100, suggesting on a tactical basis S&P 500 will decline during the next month.
Strategically, we expect 3% GDP growth will drive 5% earnings growth in 2015 and upside exists if crude prices remain low. Rising profits will lift the market to a new high around mid-year but after the Fed hikes in 3Q the P/E multiple will slip to 16x at year-end.
We forecast the S&P 500 will close the year at 2100 and deliver a total return of 4% vs. -1% for a constant maturity 10-year Treasury.
Extreme positioning is a strong contrarian signal for subsequent equity performance
Market: High valuation and rising rates mean limited S&P 500 gain
Median stock in S&P 500 currently trades at nearly 18x forward earnings, a multiple experienced only 2% of the time since 1976. Falling interest rates and a 58% P/E multiple expansion since 2011 will start to reverse in 2015.
如果聪明投资者这次还是对的 那应警惕美股了
文 / 张舒 2015年01月06日 07:07:04 4
基于标普100的期权OEX是一个重要指标。过去15年里，从未平仓量看，若OEX看空期权是看多期权的两倍还多，美股随后通常有显著调整。该指标于12月29日再次发出调整信号，周一美股重挫，标普500创去年10月来最大单日跌幅。
J. Lyons基金管理公司合伙人Dana Lyons认为，在趋势市场中，投资者最好跟随大势；但有时要和大多数人反着做。
Lyons在文章中指出，基于标普100的期权OEX是一个重要指标。过去15年里，从未平仓量看，对于空仓是多仓超过2倍的情况，只发生了15次，这属于OEX发出极端信号，美股随后通常有显著调整。
看空期权过高，表示OEX期权投资者对市场表示悲观。这些期权交易者代表了市场上的“聪明钱”，从过往数据来看，他们对市场转折点把握的非常好。
如下图所示，上述极端情况发生后，市场大多伴随调整。这包括：1999年11月，2003年6月，2007年2~7月，2011年6月，2012年1月。只有2012年1月这次不太准，股市没有在信号发出后几个月内出现大调整。
2014年颇为不寻常，过去15年里，上述极端情况一共发生了15次，然而其中7次是在2014年一年内完成，包括7月、10月、11月和12月。随后，虽然美股调整幅度不如以往大，但也出现了至少3%的调整，特别地，去年10月时标普500指数调整了接近10%。由此可见，“聪明钱”的信号在当前这个不同寻常的环境下依然有效。
12月29日，OEX再度发出极端信号。从未平仓量看，OEX看空期权是看多期权的2.08倍。此后，美股走势疲软，2014年最后一个交易日标普大跌1%。1月5日为新年的第2个交易日，美股重挫，标普500指数创去年10月来最大单日跌幅。
Goldman's 2015 S&P 500 Trajectory In 1 Chart: Drop, Pop, & Slop
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2015 15:27 -0500
Not satisfied with merely "nailing the number", Goldman Sachs' David Kostin forecasts the S&P 500's trajectory through 2015. Recognizing, as we did, that Bullish Sentiment is as highs as it gets, Kostin expects short-term weakness during the next month (the drop), earnings growth thanks to lower oil prices into mid-year (the pop), but multiple compression after rate hikes into year-end (the slop)...
S&P 500 has surged 10% since October. Our US equity market Sentiment Indicator now shows an extreme reading of 100, suggesting on a tactical basis S&P 500 will decline during the next month.
Strategically, we expect 3% GDP growth will drive 5% earnings growth in 2015 and upside exists if crude prices remain low. Rising profits will lift the market to a new high around mid-year but after the Fed hikes in 3Q the P/E multiple will slip to 16x at year-end.
We forecast the S&P 500 will close the year at 2100 and deliver a total return of 4% vs. -1% for a constant maturity 10-year Treasury.
Extreme positioning is a strong contrarian signal for subsequent equity performance
Market: High valuation and rising rates mean limited S&P 500 gain
Median stock in S&P 500 currently trades at nearly 18x forward earnings, a multiple experienced only 2% of the time since 1976. Falling interest rates and a 58% P/E multiple expansion since 2011 will start to reverse in 2015.
如果聪明投资者这次还是对的 那应警惕美股了
文 / 张舒 2015年01月06日 07:07:04 4
基于标普100的期权OEX是一个重要指标。过去15年里，从未平仓量看，若OEX看空期权是看多期权的两倍还多，美股随后通常有显著调整。该指标于12月29日再次发出调整信号，周一美股重挫，标普500创去年10月来最大单日跌幅。
J. Lyons基金管理公司合伙人Dana Lyons认为，在趋势市场中，投资者最好跟随大势；但有时要和大多数人反着做。
Lyons在文章中指出，基于标普100的期权OEX是一个重要指标。过去15年里，从未平仓量看，对于空仓是多仓超过2倍的情况，只发生了15次，这属于OEX发出极端信号，美股随后通常有显著调整。
看空期权过高，表示OEX期权投资者对市场表示悲观。这些期权交易者代表了市场上的“聪明钱”，从过往数据来看，他们对市场转折点把握的非常好。
如下图所示，上述极端情况发生后，市场大多伴随调整。这包括：1999年11月，2003年6月，2007年2~7月，2011年6月，2012年1月。只有2012年1月这次不太准，股市没有在信号发出后几个月内出现大调整。
2014年颇为不寻常，过去15年里，上述极端情况一共发生了15次，然而其中7次是在2014年一年内完成，包括7月、10月、11月和12月。随后，虽然美股调整幅度不如以往大，但也出现了至少3%的调整，特别地，去年10月时标普500指数调整了接近10%。由此可见，“聪明钱”的信号在当前这个不同寻常的环境下依然有效。
12月29日，OEX再度发出极端信号。从未平仓量看，OEX看空期权是看多期权的2.08倍。此后，美股走势疲软，2014年最后一个交易日标普大跌1%。1月5日为新年的第2个交易日，美股重挫，标普500指数创去年10月来最大单日跌幅。
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Morgan Stanley Announces Redemption of S&P 500 Crude Oil Exchange Traded Notes
January 08, 2015 08:15 PM Eastern Standard Time
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) announced today that it will redeem all of its outstanding S&P 500 Crude Oil Linked ETNs due 2031 with a CUSIP of 61760E390 (NYSE Arca:BARL) (the “ETNs”). Morgan Stanley expects to provide the call notice via The Depository Trust Company on January 27, 2015 (the “call notice date”). The repurchase settlement amount of the ETNs will be determined on the call notice date and will be paid to the investors on January 30, 2015, the third business day after the call notice date. Accordingly, the last day of trading for each ETN is expected to be January 29, 2015.
Other exchange traded notes, structured notes and debt securities issued by Morgan Stanley are not affected by this redemption.
Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing a wide range of investment banking, securities, investment management and wealth management services. With offices in more than 43 countries, the Firm's employees serve clients worldwide including corporations, governments, institutions and individuals. For further information about Morgan Stanley, please visit www.morganstanley.com.
Contacts
Morgan Stanley
Media Relations
Mark Lake, 212-761-8493
马老师能不能解释一下这则新闻
January 08, 2015 08:15 PM Eastern Standard Time
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) announced today that it will redeem all of its outstanding S&P 500 Crude Oil Linked ETNs due 2031 with a CUSIP of 61760E390 (NYSE Arca:BARL) (the “ETNs”). Morgan Stanley expects to provide the call notice via The Depository Trust Company on January 27, 2015 (the “call notice date”). The repurchase settlement amount of the ETNs will be determined on the call notice date and will be paid to the investors on January 30, 2015, the third business day after the call notice date. Accordingly, the last day of trading for each ETN is expected to be January 29, 2015.
Other exchange traded notes, structured notes and debt securities issued by Morgan Stanley are not affected by this redemption.
Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing a wide range of investment banking, securities, investment management and wealth management services. With offices in more than 43 countries, the Firm's employees serve clients worldwide including corporations, governments, institutions and individuals. For further information about Morgan Stanley, please visit www.morganstanley.com.
Contacts
Morgan Stanley
Media Relations
Mark Lake, 212-761-8493
马老师能不能解释一下这则新闻
ETN是类似ETF的产品，可以认为功能基本是一致的。
小摩退出是因为原油future volitility到达了历史的高点，估计大于3sigma的区间，一般正常在2sigma以内。
产品要获利，追踪标的的偏差不能过大，靠稳定的管理费赚钱，所以从产品风险管理的角度看，赔钱的概率上升。
从投资的角度看，short oil future volitility的产品会赚钱，有个巨大的价格反弹的技术层面的条件已经具备，但是投资都有黑天鹅，2000年老虎基金认为纳斯达克波动率达到极限，PE到达历史极限，所以做空纳斯达克网络股都赔的一塌糊涂。
结论：小摩退出是因为原油future volitility到达了历史的高点，估计大于3sigma的区间，风险管理水平达不到。
原油价格的反弹技术层面条件已经具备，如果有供需基本量的支撑，短线反弹一触即发。供需基本面指，沙特减产，中东冲突加剧，特别是美国页岩气厂家宣布大幅削减供应量和未来投资。
小摩退出是因为原油future volitility到达了历史的高点，估计大于3sigma的区间，一般正常在2sigma以内。
产品要获利，追踪标的的偏差不能过大，靠稳定的管理费赚钱，所以从产品风险管理的角度看，赔钱的概率上升。
从投资的角度看，short oil future volitility的产品会赚钱，有个巨大的价格反弹的技术层面的条件已经具备，但是投资都有黑天鹅，2000年老虎基金认为纳斯达克波动率达到极限，PE到达历史极限，所以做空纳斯达克网络股都赔的一塌糊涂。
结论：小摩退出是因为原油future volitility到达了历史的高点，估计大于3sigma的区间，风险管理水平达不到。
原油价格的反弹技术层面条件已经具备，如果有供需基本量的支撑，短线反弹一触即发。供需基本面指，沙特减产，中东冲突加剧，特别是美国页岩气厂家宣布大幅削减供应量和未来投资。
2009年12月VS1月的期货升水达到了惊人25美元。目前每桶3.95美元，为2010年以来最大价差。
2009年囤积了超过1亿桶原油。目前囤积规模已达1200-1500万桶，预期每日囤积量超过150万桶。
看起来在底部区间，但还没有到真正的底部。
无风险套利卷土重来 原油贸易巨头大举海上囤油
2015年01月09日 14:03 华尔街见闻 我有话说(21人参与) 收藏本文
在国际原油(48.21, -0.58, -1.19%)期货大幅升水之时，一些全球最大石油贸易商预订租用巨型油轮海上囤积原油。时隔六年，大量利用原油期货升水价差“无风险”套利的交易动向再度出现。
路透由船运业人士处获悉，Vitol、Trafigura等贸易商和英荷皇家壳牌这类主要生产商都已预订12个月以后租用油轮。其中全球最大独立石油贸易商Vitol定下两艘装运量分别为200万桶和300万桶原油的巨轮。按载重吨位算，300万桶装运量的TI级超级油轮属于全球最大的海运油轮。瑞士贸易商Trafigura至少租用了一艘超大型油轮(VLCC)，壳牌租用了两艘超大型油轮。
上述消息人士认为，这类大批长期订单非比寻常。这意味着交易者可能利用油轮在海上囤积供应过剩的原油，直到油价反弹为止。此情此景有如2009年油价崩盘时火爆的“无风险”升水套利交易重演。
路透报道还提到，迄今为止，1200-1500万桶原油的海上储存容量已经全部预订。这意味着囤积规模已达1200-1500万桶，和2009年的囤积量相比还有差距。
期货市场的“升水”是指远期价格高于近期价格。2009年12月VS1月的期货升水达到了惊人25美元。“前无古人”的套利机会导致对冲基金、银行和其他投机者蜂拥而至，囤积了超过1亿桶原油。
去年下半年国际油价跌约50%，近期油价与较远期期货价格差距扩大。上月24日华尔街见闻文章提到，今年2月交割的布伦特原油期货较五个月后交割的期价便宜近每桶3.95美元，为2010年以来最大价差。业内消息人士预计，全球石油交易商今年可能用油轮储存原油，因为期货溢价扩大使海上大规模储油变得有利可图。
彭博《商业周刊》报道援引法国兴业银行石油市场研究主管Mike Wittner上月底的评论称：“我们预计明年上半年会有大量原油囤积，每日囤积量超过150万桶。在可预见的未来，期货市场会保持升水。我们可能上半年目睹极高升水，这将催生各类方式储油，既有陆上的还有海上的。”
华尔街见闻上月底文章提到，由于中国趁国际油价暴跌之机大举购买石油，中东至日本线路油轮的基准海运费增至每日9.7489万美元，为2008年以来最高水平。仅仅六个月前，这一海运费还不足2万美元。预计今后几个月海运业盈利还会随着石油期货溢价增加而进一步增长。由于近月期油合约价格低于远期价格，交易者会希望利用油轮囤积更多的石油，以图未来获利。
上述路透报道提到，目前现租现用油轮费用接近每日9.7万美元，而如果像以上贸易商那样预订今后租用超级油轮，每日费用还不足4万美元。
对此租费差距，油轮公司Teekay的市场研究经理Christian Waldegrave指出，2009年的运费极低，油轮船主愿意出租，可现在运费越来越高，除非预计运费将要下跌，否则船主会犹豫是否签预定油轮的租约。
2009年囤积了超过1亿桶原油。目前囤积规模已达1200-1500万桶，预期每日囤积量超过150万桶。
看起来在底部区间，但还没有到真正的底部。
无风险套利卷土重来 原油贸易巨头大举海上囤油
2015年01月09日 14:03 华尔街见闻 我有话说(21人参与) 收藏本文
在国际原油(48.21, -0.58, -1.19%)期货大幅升水之时，一些全球最大石油贸易商预订租用巨型油轮海上囤积原油。时隔六年，大量利用原油期货升水价差“无风险”套利的交易动向再度出现。
路透由船运业人士处获悉，Vitol、Trafigura等贸易商和英荷皇家壳牌这类主要生产商都已预订12个月以后租用油轮。其中全球最大独立石油贸易商Vitol定下两艘装运量分别为200万桶和300万桶原油的巨轮。按载重吨位算，300万桶装运量的TI级超级油轮属于全球最大的海运油轮。瑞士贸易商Trafigura至少租用了一艘超大型油轮(VLCC)，壳牌租用了两艘超大型油轮。
上述消息人士认为，这类大批长期订单非比寻常。这意味着交易者可能利用油轮在海上囤积供应过剩的原油，直到油价反弹为止。此情此景有如2009年油价崩盘时火爆的“无风险”升水套利交易重演。
路透报道还提到，迄今为止，1200-1500万桶原油的海上储存容量已经全部预订。这意味着囤积规模已达1200-1500万桶，和2009年的囤积量相比还有差距。
期货市场的“升水”是指远期价格高于近期价格。2009年12月VS1月的期货升水达到了惊人25美元。“前无古人”的套利机会导致对冲基金、银行和其他投机者蜂拥而至，囤积了超过1亿桶原油。
去年下半年国际油价跌约50%，近期油价与较远期期货价格差距扩大。上月24日华尔街见闻文章提到，今年2月交割的布伦特原油期货较五个月后交割的期价便宜近每桶3.95美元，为2010年以来最大价差。业内消息人士预计，全球石油交易商今年可能用油轮储存原油，因为期货溢价扩大使海上大规模储油变得有利可图。
彭博《商业周刊》报道援引法国兴业银行石油市场研究主管Mike Wittner上月底的评论称：“我们预计明年上半年会有大量原油囤积，每日囤积量超过150万桶。在可预见的未来，期货市场会保持升水。我们可能上半年目睹极高升水，这将催生各类方式储油，既有陆上的还有海上的。”
华尔街见闻上月底文章提到，由于中国趁国际油价暴跌之机大举购买石油，中东至日本线路油轮的基准海运费增至每日9.7489万美元，为2008年以来最高水平。仅仅六个月前，这一海运费还不足2万美元。预计今后几个月海运业盈利还会随着石油期货溢价增加而进一步增长。由于近月期油合约价格低于远期价格，交易者会希望利用油轮囤积更多的石油，以图未来获利。
上述路透报道提到，目前现租现用油轮费用接近每日9.7万美元，而如果像以上贸易商那样预订今后租用超级油轮，每日费用还不足4万美元。
对此租费差距，油轮公司Teekay的市场研究经理Christian Waldegrave指出，2009年的运费极低，油轮船主愿意出租，可现在运费越来越高，除非预计运费将要下跌，否则船主会犹豫是否签预定油轮的租约。
个人估计新闻报道的48就是未来三年的大底，但是目前没有谁能够看的清，呵呵，一般事后诸葛亮的多如牛毛，本人一般也不发表比较极端的结论。
留意观察基本面的变化和股价的变化，特别是大涨占上日KM5线。不要贪，赚个15-20%左右需要出来。
我以前看见过美国航空的分析报告，2008年涨到140，他们的油价平坦成本仍是60多，并且一直做到2012年。所以2012-2014油价在100美元盘整那么久，但是以气价已经创出十年最低，里面全是机构投资者在操盘积累做空的仓位。同样机构投资者在低位也会逐步平空仓开多仓，累计仓位。
所以油价反弹期望不能太高，年化15-20%就可以了，平衡中枢价位应该在70美元左右。
ETF：USO，OIL，DBO，BNO。希望能够躺在床上赚钱，每日看盘不是个人喜欢的风格。
留意观察基本面的变化和股价的变化，特别是大涨占上日KM5线。不要贪，赚个15-20%左右需要出来。
我以前看见过美国航空的分析报告，2008年涨到140，他们的油价平坦成本仍是60多，并且一直做到2012年。所以2012-2014油价在100美元盘整那么久，但是以气价已经创出十年最低，里面全是机构投资者在操盘积累做空的仓位。同样机构投资者在低位也会逐步平空仓开多仓，累计仓位。
所以油价反弹期望不能太高，年化15-20%就可以了，平衡中枢价位应该在70美元左右。
ETF：USO，OIL，DBO，BNO。希望能够躺在床上赚钱，每日看盘不是个人喜欢的风格。
有时候反常信号往往是底部或者顶部的明显信号。WTI价格高于Brent，WTI原油45是大底？
布油长期高于WTI，因为中国需求旺盛，做空布油的力量较弱。所以情况反转的一种可能解释是WTI做空盘在此处犹豫了，平仓较多。
WTI Crude Higher Than Brent Crude For First Time Since July 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2015 11:13 -0500
From almost $30 differentials in 2011, today's bounce in WTI has pushed the Brent-WTI spread negative for the first time since July 2013 briefly (and August 2010 consistently). This is, as the chart below shows, more 'old normal' as pre-QE the Brent-WTI spread oscillated in a very narrow range...
WTI's bounce has pushed it above Brent today...
For the first time since July 2013 and August 2010...
布油长期高于WTI，因为中国需求旺盛，做空布油的力量较弱。所以情况反转的一种可能解释是WTI做空盘在此处犹豫了，平仓较多。
WTI Crude Higher Than Brent Crude For First Time Since July 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2015 11:13 -0500
From almost $30 differentials in 2011, today's bounce in WTI has pushed the Brent-WTI spread negative for the first time since July 2013 briefly (and August 2010 consistently). This is, as the chart below shows, more 'old normal' as pre-QE the Brent-WTI spread oscillated in a very narrow range...
WTI's bounce has pushed it above Brent today...
For the first time since July 2013 and August 2010...
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If oil continues to drop, the market will probably drop again, otherwise, I don't think the downward trend will continue.
Better to consider the risk of bigger upper side than smaller down side.
If you bet the market is going high, you can loose, but your loose is limited.
If you bet the market is going down, you can win, but your win is limited.
Which side will you choose?
keep it balance!!
================================================================
no logic, no reason.It's on the road of uncertainity.
why the drop of oil price will cause market drop? The oil price is the only driving factor for market volatility?
Why risk of upper side is bigger than downward? the oil price will support rally?
回网友提问：
（1）北上的房价被严重低估，和香港的土地批租制度是一个模样，现在上海内环破4万，内外环破3万，外环新房都破2万了（上海统计局剔除保障房，回迁房的数据），未来五年2020年前只升不降。以前在外高桥08年金地未未来3000块楼板价那地，开盘精装修1.2万，现在北上广深平均批地价格1.4万，看跌房产的人悲剧是大概率事件。
有人说北上和香港不能简单比，但是其实都是批地制度，香港的墓地都是3万美金，18万人民币，无锡的墓地要么入免费的安息堂，要么买5万的墓地。北上走香港的路基本上是确定的。
上海每年50万人口的净流入，小地方的人基于收入因素都会继续在大城市奋斗。大城市的收入普遍是小城市的四五倍，像东北三省基本上不出去打工都是很难生存，工资太低了。当然房价也是全国最低，外地年轻人基本上看不见。上海很早卖一手房的数据就公开了，现在300-500套一天，包括住宅，商铺和拆迁安置房等等。印象中09年最高有过单天1000套的数据，所以一年5-8万套的住宅销售明显是不够的。供需关系决定的。
（2）加币在对人民币5是常态，未来不排除继续探底，破4都是有可能的,所以现在抄底远未到时候，因为加币就是石油币。人民币升值是五十年一遇的大机遇，赚大钱需要智慧，也需要很大的勇气和毅力。如果有机会卖一套上海的买几套多伦多的在这里收租金不是很适宜。人民币有可能贬值，但发生的概率在习总下台（2022年）左右或以后。
（1）北上的房价被严重低估，和香港的土地批租制度是一个模样，现在上海内环破4万，内外环破3万，外环新房都破2万了（上海统计局剔除保障房，回迁房的数据），未来五年2020年前只升不降。以前在外高桥08年金地未未来3000块楼板价那地，开盘精装修1.2万，现在北上广深平均批地价格1.4万，看跌房产的人悲剧是大概率事件。
有人说北上和香港不能简单比，但是其实都是批地制度，香港的墓地都是3万美金，18万人民币，无锡的墓地要么入免费的安息堂，要么买5万的墓地。北上走香港的路基本上是确定的。
上海每年50万人口的净流入，小地方的人基于收入因素都会继续在大城市奋斗。大城市的收入普遍是小城市的四五倍，像东北三省基本上不出去打工都是很难生存，工资太低了。当然房价也是全国最低，外地年轻人基本上看不见。上海很早卖一手房的数据就公开了，现在300-500套一天，包括住宅，商铺和拆迁安置房等等。印象中09年最高有过单天1000套的数据，所以一年5-8万套的住宅销售明显是不够的。供需关系决定的。
（2）加币在对人民币5是常态，未来不排除继续探底，破4都是有可能的,所以现在抄底远未到时候，因为加币就是石油币。人民币升值是五十年一遇的大机遇，赚大钱需要智慧，也需要很大的勇气和毅力。如果有机会卖一套上海的买几套多伦多的在这里收租金不是很适宜。人民币有可能贬值，但发生的概率在习总下台（2022年）左右或以后。
最后编辑: 2015-02-15
BofA Merrill Lynch
Global Investment Strategy: Pax Americana, iBubble & FX Wars
For the past five years we have been in a strongly bullish environment for investments, with a backdrop of falling rates and rising earnings. That is likely to end in 2015, says Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist for BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. But global real GDP growth is still likely to rise in the new year. Here are his investment strategy insights for 2015.
Our view
Shifting winds transform the investment backdrop: The global investment backdrop is shifting from one of the falling rates/rising earnings scenario of 2009-2014 to one of rising rates/rising earnings in 2015. That means the optimum backdrop for asset prices is largely behind us, as is the era of excess returns and excessively low volatility.
Back to the future: Global growth and U.S. yields are likely to rise modestly in 2015, with policy easing in Japan, China and the eurozone successfully averting deflation and stabilizing growth expectations. The secular bull market in stocks and credit is likely to continue with inflation well behaved, interest rates rising very slowly and – crucially – growth and corporate earnings expanding. We see the 1950s as the best historical analogy for today's world.
Where do we go from here? Three scenarios:
In order of conviction, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's 2015 asset allocation recommendations are:
Global Investment Strategy: Pax Americana, iBubble & FX Wars
For the past five years we have been in a strongly bullish environment for investments, with a backdrop of falling rates and rising earnings. That is likely to end in 2015, says Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist for BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. But global real GDP growth is still likely to rise in the new year. Here are his investment strategy insights for 2015.
Our view
Shifting winds transform the investment backdrop: The global investment backdrop is shifting from one of the falling rates/rising earnings scenario of 2009-2014 to one of rising rates/rising earnings in 2015. That means the optimum backdrop for asset prices is largely behind us, as is the era of excess returns and excessively low volatility.
Back to the future: Global growth and U.S. yields are likely to rise modestly in 2015, with policy easing in Japan, China and the eurozone successfully averting deflation and stabilizing growth expectations. The secular bull market in stocks and credit is likely to continue with inflation well behaved, interest rates rising very slowly and – crucially – growth and corporate earnings expanding. We see the 1950s as the best historical analogy for today's world.
Where do we go from here? Three scenarios:
- Pax Americana (Base case, high probability): The most likely scenario we see entails stronger global economic growth and rising corporate earnings, led by the U.S., where escape velocity is visible in higher house prices, higher bank lending and higher small business activity. U.S. outperformance is already visible: In 2014, U.S. stocks are beating European equities by their widest margin since 1976. Other features of "Pax Americana" include a peak in the global liquidity boom, an avoidance of deflation and a continuation of the lower, narrower and more volatile returns that have characterized the markets in 2014.
- FX Wars (Bear case, mid-probability): In the bear case, cash outperforms as stock and credit returns decline. Its catalysts include a U.S. dollar surge that negatively affects U.S. earnings, a Euro crash stemming from a failure to avoid deflation and excessive yen depreciation driven by the Bank of Japan that deepens an FX war with China.
- iBubble (Bull case, low probability): In the bull case, stocks and credit markets keep pace with the gains of recent years, with stocks rising 20% and corporate bonds generating 10% returns. Among the possible drivers of this scenario are a continued drop in oil prices, reforms in Japan, Europe and China boosting productivity and earnings expectations in those regions and an "iBubble," with excess liquidity generating a narrow speculative fervor in U.S. technology.
In order of conviction, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's 2015 asset allocation recommendations are:
- Bullish U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar should be the biggest beneficiary of the U.S. achieving "escape velocity" and the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank adopting quantitative easing in 2015. The U.S. dollar is cheap and its bull market is still young, in our view. Best positioning: Stay structurally long, until the dollar starts to negatively affect U.S. corporate earnings; buy dips aggressively.
- Bullish volatility and bearish carry trades: 2015 should see the end of zero-interest rate policy in the U.S. and the peak of global liquidity expectations. The end of excess liquidity would also mark the end of abnormally low volatility and the end of the zero-interest rate policy leadership from carry trades such as high-yield bonds and small cap stocks. Best positioning: Continue reducing exposure to both high-yield bonds and small cap stocks; prefer investment-grade and collateralized debt.
- Bullish real estate: Price gains may be less dramatic, but we believe the asset class has upside as a play on the basis of a U.S. Main Street recovery, Bank of Japan quantitative easing and speculative demand from distressed debt investors in Europe.
- Bullish stocks and bearish rates: Equity returns should be positive as earnings are forecast to rise in 2015 (with optimism highest in the U.S. and Japan). However, equity returns should be constrained by low corporate bond returns. In the absence of negative corporate earnings, expected fixed income returns are too low to be competitive.
- Opportunistic in commodities and emerging markets: The forecast of higher U.S. growth/yield/dollar is not conducive to emerging market and commodity outperformance. However, China is reforming/reflating and we believe both emerging markets and commodities offer abundant opportunities for value investors. We see China, India and industrial metals as the most attractive.
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