基于网友 （多伦多上空的鸟 ）一个帖子的讨论，
家园论坛，加拿大确诊病例时间线 ，加入了一个新的数量栏，网站将不断更新加拿大各省对 “新冠肺炎 检测” 的数量值 。当前来看，加拿大各省官网大多是1天更新一次这个已检测数值。
家园论坛，加拿大确诊病例时间线 ，加入了一个新的数量栏，网站将不断更新加拿大各省对 “新冠肺炎 检测” 的数量值 。当前来看，加拿大各省官网大多是1天更新一次这个已检测数值。
加拿大确诊病例时间线，加入各省“已检测”数量
- 主题发起人 admin
- 发布时间 2020-03-16
已检测等于疑似被否了
可能不能这么看，因为加拿大当前检测阳性比例只占1.29 % 。
以前可能还是资源比较充足，各省在尽力围堵输入型病例。才会有这么低的阳性比例。
如果认为这个检测值是疑似被否，可能以前的疑似标准太松懈了。如果疫情在加拿大进一步大规模爆发的话，这个阳性比重应该会大幅上升。
？？？
已检测数不等于已检测人数，我听美国的方式是每人测两次来确定的，不知道加拿大是不是也是同样的做法。
加拿大也是检测两次确诊。
所有的检测都是各省检测一次，然后都送到加拿大国家实验室（在温尼伯）再检测一次。
这里都是各省的检测数，等于检测人数。如果你问检测了多少次，总测试次数是这个数的两倍。
他们说你有时候是男的，有时候是女的，我就想崇拜一下，不过得搞清楚先。崇拜的方法不一样。
好，我会watch你的。
我感到背后有一阵冷风吹过
老外朋友刚发过来的，有道理：
Not conjecture, not a meme, just math. Re-post:
If you're wondering why Public Health keeps saying the window is closing to stop the spread, here's why. The numbers tell us the reality. In Italy, on Feb 20, they had 4 confirmed cases. By March 15, less than a month, they had 24747 cases. Each day they had an average 27% increase.
In USA, on March 2, they had 100 cases. By March 15, in less than 2 weeks, they had 3680 cases. They are at a 32% daily increase.
In the UK, on March 5, they had 116 cases. By March 15, in 10 days, they had 1391 cases. They have a 29% daily increase.
In Iran, on Feb 25, they had 95 cases. By March 15, in less than a month, they had 13938 cases. Iran is at a 32% daily increase
The average daily increase over 4 countries is 30%.
Canada and Alberta is following this trend. Two days ago Alberta had 29 cases, then the next day 39 cases, then the next day 56 cases. The average trend is a daily increase of over 34%. Currently in Canada we have 341 cases. In 2 weeks at the end of March we are estimated to have 22700 cases in Canada.
In Alberta we have 56 cases. We are estimated by end of March to have 3732 cases in Alberta. If 10% of these cases require ICU, that is 373 ICU beds needed. The province only has 300 ICU beds across the entire province capable of intubation.
That means in just 2 weeks our entire health care system could be overwhelmed and we will be faced with questions of who lives and who dies.
The government is not overreacting when they put bans and restrictions in place. This is why the window to stop the spread is very narrow and why strict restrictions and closures are necessary. This is why we have to follow the regulations of government as our civic duty. We need a healthy amount of fear and understanding at this time, not panic, and not complacency, but the right kind of fear that leads to timely action.
Not conjecture, not a meme, just math. Re-post:
If you're wondering why Public Health keeps saying the window is closing to stop the spread, here's why. The numbers tell us the reality. In Italy, on Feb 20, they had 4 confirmed cases. By March 15, less than a month, they had 24747 cases. Each day they had an average 27% increase.
In USA, on March 2, they had 100 cases. By March 15, in less than 2 weeks, they had 3680 cases. They are at a 32% daily increase.
In the UK, on March 5, they had 116 cases. By March 15, in 10 days, they had 1391 cases. They have a 29% daily increase.
In Iran, on Feb 25, they had 95 cases. By March 15, in less than a month, they had 13938 cases. Iran is at a 32% daily increase
The average daily increase over 4 countries is 30%.
Canada and Alberta is following this trend. Two days ago Alberta had 29 cases, then the next day 39 cases, then the next day 56 cases. The average trend is a daily increase of over 34%. Currently in Canada we have 341 cases. In 2 weeks at the end of March we are estimated to have 22700 cases in Canada.
In Alberta we have 56 cases. We are estimated by end of March to have 3732 cases in Alberta. If 10% of these cases require ICU, that is 373 ICU beds needed. The province only has 300 ICU beds across the entire province capable of intubation.
That means in just 2 weeks our entire health care system could be overwhelmed and we will be faced with questions of who lives and who dies.
The government is not overreacting when they put bans and restrictions in place. This is why the window to stop the spread is very narrow and why strict restrictions and closures are necessary. This is why we have to follow the regulations of government as our civic duty. We need a healthy amount of fear and understanding at this time, not panic, and not complacency, but the right kind of fear that leads to timely action.
百分之三十多算好的了，BC昨天103，今天增加了83个，我数学不好，是不是增长了80%啊？这么下去还了得？！
看着外面仍然是太平祥和
希望天佑大家！
希望天佑大家！
COVID-19 spread is fueled by 'stealth transmission'
Cases of COVID-19 that fly under the radar — without being diagnosed — appear to fuel the rapid spread of the disease.
之前有一天BC没报新增确诊，就感到很不妙了，生怕也会不检测就无新增。现在虽然数字涨得吓人，但政府终于采取了一系列行动，反而心安一些本来还想笑来着，突然看见BC省一天增加了83例，真的是感到背后一阵冷风吹过。难怪BC学生春假无限期延长了
这越看越感到寒冷啊……
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