疫苗作用显现？！

[liliwang776]

Israel may be starting to show 'herd effects' of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, expert suggests​

Tim O'Donnell
Sun, January 17, 2021, 12:45 PM

Israel has vaccinated at least 25 percent of its population against the coronavirus so far, which leads the world and makes it "the country to watch for herd effects from" the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, says infectious disease expert David Fishman. Recently, the case rate in Israel appears to have declined sharply, and while there could be a few reasons for that, it's possible the vaccination effort is beginning to play a role.

One study from Clalit that was published last week reports that 14 days after receiving the first Pfizer-BioNTech shot, infection rates among 200,000 Israelis older than 60 fell 33 percent among those vaccinated compared to 200,000 from the same demographic who hadn't received a jab.
At first glance, Fishman writes, that might seem disappointing since clinical trials suggested the vaccine was more than 90 percent effective. But he actually believes the 33 percent figure is "auspicious." Because vaccinated and non-vaccinated people are mingling, there could be "herd effects of immunization." In other words, when inoculated people interact with people who haven't had their shot, the latter individual may still be protected because the other person is. On a larger scale, that would drive down the number of infections among non-vaccinated people, thus shrinking the gap between the two groups' infection rates.


More data needs to come in, and Fishman thinks "we'll know more" this week, but he's cautiously optimistic about how things are going.

 

[Overmind]

只要疫苗能打了，老夫马上跑去打。

 

[liliwang776]

不管如何以色列接种人口已经超过25%，他先来。让我们也看到曙光。

 

[Chinada]

Good point。达到这么大规模以后，打了疫苗的人群会保护不打疫苗的人群，所以从数字上会拉低有效率。

 

[zunhuhu]

 

[SLS]

我估计以色列的疫苗普及，很快会影响住院人数和重症人数，疫苗有滞后期，再等3，5个星期再看看。

 

[Chinada]

为什么以色列得到了这么多疫苗？
已经注射了两百多万人了

 

[SLS]

为什么以色列得到了这么多疫苗？
已经注射了两百多万人了

以色列答应把所有人的疫苗统计数据交给医药公司和世界卫生组织。相当于参加一个大型试验。所以才能拿到这么多疫苗。

 

[Bingoye]

我估计以色列的疫苗普及，很快会影响住院人数和重症人数，疫苗有滞后期，再等3，5个星期再看看。

应该越来越好

 

[Aidemengdun]

很好很好

 

[秘密马]

Israel may be starting to show 'herd effects' of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, expert suggests​

Tim O'Donnell
Sun, January 17, 2021, 12:45 PM

Israel has vaccinated at least 25 percent of its population against the coronavirus so far, which leads the world and makes it "the country to watch for herd effects from" the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, says infectious disease expert David Fishman. Recently, the case rate in Israel appears to have declined sharply, and while there could be a few reasons for that, it's possible the vaccination effort is beginning to play a role.

One study from Clalit that was published last week reports that 14 days after receiving the first Pfizer-BioNTech shot, infection rates among 200,000 Israelis older than 60 fell 33 percent among those vaccinated compared to 200,000 from the same demographic who hadn't received a jab.
At first glance, Fishman writes, that might seem disappointing since clinical trials suggested the vaccine was more than 90 percent effective. But he actually believes the 33 percent figure is "auspicious." Because vaccinated and non-vaccinated people are mingling, there could be "herd effects of immunization." In other words, when inoculated people interact with people who haven't had their shot, the latter individual may still be protected because the other person is. On a larger scale, that would drive down the number of infections among non-vaccinated people, thus shrinking the gap between the two groups' infection rates.


More data needs to come in, and Fishman thinks "we'll know more" this week, but he's cautiously optimistic about how things are going.

我姐姐前两天在国内打了第一针国产新冠疫苗，完全没有感觉到副作用和过敏反应。我以前打流感疫苗还有手臂酸痛的感觉，她什么反应都没有

 

[_RyanGiggs_]

(1-x)/[0.75+0.25(1-x)]=1-0.33, x=0.4, 还是比0.94小很多。