TARGET PRICE FOR BUSXF during 2021 is between $6 - $10 per share USD (or a 5x - 10 bagger) based on roughly a market cap of between $600MM - $1 billion (USD). There is also the potential it could turn into a 25x bagger after 2021 based on a $3 billion market cap.
ANALYSIS AND RATIONALE:
- BUSXF has explicitly said that they will be listing on the NASDAQ soon (see their December press release) and this was confirmed by their Investor Relations. When this happens, this will increase visibility and potential investors (and as these new potential investors become aware of how undervalued the company is this will drive the share price much higher (see GP as an example today).
- The company has a diverse product offering of buses including their new EV bus (Vicinity Lightning EV) which they partnered with BMW and Hofer Germany to engineer. They already have a $40MM order from a large US buyer for these EV buses (and this is just one order). These EV buses will be their main product going forward which will be (and is) a huge revenue generator.
- The company is setting up a US headquarters and building a new plant in Washington state. This new plant will produce over 1,000 buses per year (at roughly $350K per bus = $350MM in revenue). They further have the capacity for an additional 2,000 buses per year through contract manufacturing (which would be an additional $700MM in revenues per year). Plus they have a reoccurring parts business for steady revenues from this source. Therefore, potential revenues are over $1 billion per year based on this runway alone.
- They currently have $50MM in new orders being delivered before Q2'21 alone.
- The company has over 90 new buses to be delivered right now (with most being delivered in the 1Q'21). 90 buses x $350,000 (average price of a bus) = $31.5MM in revenues along potentially in 1Q'21 (note the first quarter earnings call is going to be exceptional).
- Company insiders have been buying shares hand over fist and bought over 800,000 share in the public market over the past year (in addition to their other share holdings). Directors of the company have asked that their compensation be in the form of shares. Both of these are extremely bullish signs.
- The company's stated goal is to become profitable soon (profitable companies are less reliant on outside funding and ultimately soar in value (see ENPH's chart).
- The company raised new funds recently of over $8.6MM, so they are set with cash for now and once profitability takes hold again, they won't need outside funding and can rely on their working capital and operating cash flows.
- Their US strategy and network is already set up and will continue to generate new orders and sales through an established dealer network partner located in every state. Further, existing (past) relationships in Canada also mean repeat orders where they move over to their new EV bus.
- Their buses are Buy America compliant and have met all Altoona testing requirements.
- There is one analyst recommendation so far with a "strong buy".
- The company is currently under the radar in the investing public vs. it's competition. The old investing adage is to invest in companies mentioned on the back page of the newspaper (not on the front page). BUS is currently on the back page but is working it's way towards the front page (i.e. with investor presentations and once it hits the NASDAQ).
- Their market cap has significant room to grow versus their nearest competition (right now $125MM v. $670MM for GP, $5.4B for Arrival and $2B for Lion). The company has more revenues and more orders than GP so an equivalent market cap to GP would be that BUS's market cap should be 5X higher right now (it simply isn't because of the lack of visibility...which provides a huge opportunity to take advantage of this...but the coming NASDAQ listing will fix that issue). Therefore, there is significant upside to the share price.
- Further let's say based on current orders and deliveries that 2021 revenues come close to $100MM, then a conservative (and current market-based) 10x multiple means that this equates to a $1 billion market cap by the end of 2021, which then equates to roughly $10 per share (up from it's current $1.51 per share).
- The bottom line: The company's share price (based on current enterprise value, current orders and likely future revenues) is severely undervalued. Further, once the company is listed on the NASDAQ, then financial institutions will be buying sizable chunks of shares and equity analyst coverage will increase which will drive awareness which will drive new investors to the company which will drive the share price much, much higher (once they all realize that this is a strong, growing and soon-to-be profitable company with lost of revenue-producing orders in a hyper growth industry). Therefore, my TARGET PRICE for BUSXF during 2021 is $6 - $10 per share (USD).
，两个小屁孩大的都17啦，老二也12了，就连老三都9岁了，一晃都十多年了，孩子们大部分时候都是可爱的天使，但作妖作怪的时候也不少
借你吉言，也祝你早日财务自由，全家幸福
