一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

[Feat]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

使用贷款杠杆是把双刃剑，以小搏大赢了当然爽，但一旦被套牢也更难以脱身。还不了贷款不得不忍痛割肉交房的例子前两年还历历在目，这和玩期货一样。

说到生活品质，自住房也未见得有优势，房产税，更高的水电气保险支出，外加各类维修，基本就和房租抵掉了，这些租房都不用操心，而且随时可因工作学习生活重心的改变而搬家，省却车马奔波之苦。

说到税务，没有人会不考虑，但通常其影响收益率在1%以内，远远小于其他因素。建模型分析必须抓主要因素。

最后说你那例子，怎么给你算出15%的收益率的？

收益项：
1、18，000房租不用付 了，收益3.6%
2、房价上涨3%，收益3%

损失项：

1、50万房子，房产税算7，000，水电保险维修算8，000吧，这就3%去掉了
2、房产交易成本（经纪费用），按5年交易一次算，就是每年1%
3、折旧成本1%


损益相抵，即使你是全额付款，也只有1.6%的收益，但是你是贷款（假设利率2.6%)，10万有1.6%的收益，而40万是负收益-1%，平均一下，整个是赔钱买卖。

房产如果不能年涨7%，不如闭着眼跟着股指走，股指年复合收益7%，交完税也还有5.6%。

只能说，对于心理无法承受股市起伏的人来说，房产是比较适合的投资项目——因为一旦投入，就被套牢了，听天由命也就省得操心了。

除非象中国房产那样年复合收益30%，那才是能贷多少就贷多少的情形，但那是因为从计划经济走向市场经济时价格需要一个定位的过程，以最终和国际房价接轨。这完全不适合加拿大房地产。

不过2013房价年涨幅（5.2%)低于50年平均（6.14%)，今年买房子应该算是个不坏的切入时点。

你还真有耐心给她掰扯。我曾经问过一个来了就买房的为什么买房不先租着，回答太狗血太无脑了：租房子的租金不是白给了房东了吗？看，就这么二的人什么都不懂的就买房子了。

 

[Michelle Libra]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

This is the trend....

 

[Michelle Libra]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

其实很多朋友一直看着收益率，这是很有问题的。

更重要的是，这种投资跟黄金、股票等还不一样，自住房的增值是免税的，你们如果不去计算税务这一项东西，仅仅看着所谓的收益率，我不客气地说你们就根本不懂得投资理财。

TRUE. If you sold your house (the primary one only), the capital gain from the sales is tax-free up to $800,000. For other scenarios, we all know how much income tax you will have to pay if you made $800,000 per year!

 

[Michelle Libra]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

For houses you don't want to sell when the markets down, you still can rent it out to cover your own mortgage and maintain a regular income even if you lost your job.

But YES I don't think everyone should own a house, especially those who are unable to manage a house (seniors for example), or who are not smart enough to cope with this complexity ~

 

[我心悠悠然]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

米米，很久没见了，忙什么去了

 

[Michelle Libra]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

oops double entry sorry

 

[Michelle Libra]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

TRUE. If you sold your house (the primary one only), the capital gain from the sales is tax-free up to $800,000. For other scenarios, we all know how much income tax you will have to pay if you made $800,000 per year!

and Tian Ya, don't waste your time with people who are ignorant or those no brainers. Your time should be spending on things more interesting & more prosperous. --- Everyone has his fate to confront and let the nature take the course! If he's doomed to fail, let him fail; we are not the God who can save him. If he's a smart ass, he will do smart things without your help. This is life; and this is human being!

 

[Michelle Libra]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

米米，很久没见了，忙什么去了

Jaysus Christ! (Irish accent lol) I've been working hard like a horse! Day and night! Sorry I can't type Chinese right now as I am on my cell. How are you? Happy New Year!

 

[Horse Dragoon]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

最后说你那例子，怎么给你算出15%的收益率的？

收益项：
1、18，000房租不用付 了，收益3.6%
2、房价上涨3%，收益3%
（3、出租地下室的收益就不算了，没生活品质。）

损失项：

1、50万房子，房产税算7，000，水电保险维修算8，000吧，这就3%去掉了
2、房产交易成本（经纪费用），按5年交易一次算，就是每年1%
3、折旧成本1%

。

我替天涯回答一下:
15%是因为20%的首付跟房价比是1:5的杠杆, 每当3%的房价上涨, 故5X3%=15%, 或是50万X3%=1.5万, 1.5万/10万首付=15%.


还有你没买过房吧, 50万的房, 7000地税是不对的, 最多4000,
8000的水电保险等也太高,一般是4000左右,

 

[Horse Dragoon]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

我曾经问过一个来了就买房的为什么买房不先租着，回答太狗血太无脑了：租房子的租金不是白给了房东了吗？看，就这么二的人什么都不懂的就买房子了。

你的脑大,,,真懂,,,

 

[Horse Dragoon]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

oops double entry sorry

MICHELLE

 

[Henry1976]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

For houses you don't want to sell when the markets down, you still can rent it out to cover your own mortgage and maintain a regular income even if you lost your job.

No, if the money had not been invested into the house, it would have brought you much more(7% from equity) than the rents(3% or even lower). Not to mention the trading costs and depreciation costs mentioned before, which can be simply saved by not buying houses.

and Tian Ya, don't waste your time with people who are ignorant or those no brainers.

Mostly when you think others are igonrant, it is because you stick to your own belief and refuse to understand the different opinions. It is a natual inclination that one likes to only see the CONSISTANT facts which vote for the decision of buying houses, because the bought house cannot be sold soon. You have to strengthen your belief to make yourself feel happier. I've seen a lot of this irrational behavior in the equity and estate markets.

Of course I'm not writing to convince you, but to remind those who may be fooled by the estate agents. In the long term, it is not bad to have a house, but it does not always worth when there're more lucrative options.

 

[Henry1976]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

我替天涯回答一下:
15%是因为20%的首付跟房价比是1:5的杠杆, 每当3%的房价上涨, 故5X3%=15%, 或是50万X3%=1.5万, 1.5万/10万首付=15%.

所以我说这个不对嘛，房租收入和房子维护成本/交易成本还可大致抵掉，你贷款的利息就只能靠房价上涨来冲了，那部分完全没利润。所以3%也就是3%，说15%完全不靠谱。

还有你没买过房吧, 50万的房, 7000地税是不对的, 最多4000,
8000的水电保险等也太高,一般是4000左右,

谢谢指正，我是错按100万的房算了。考虑维护费，这个修正可以加上1%的收益，那么房价年涨6%还是非常合理的，涨不到6%就不如其他投资。要说杠杆，做期货一样做杠杆，风险稍大点，但不用付利息。

 

[Michelle Libra]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

[quote="Henry1976, post: 9769639"]I'm not writing to convince you, but to remind those who may be fooled by the estate agents. In the long term, it is not bad to have a house, but it does not always worth when there're more lucrative options.[/quote]
Have NO idea what you are trying to say or prove.  
As I said (see above),  Let the nature take the courses; people can't manage a house will not buy a house. 
If someone bought a house, why are you worrying about?  What's your problem with it?  They're adults and you can't control them. Get a real life, man.

 

[Henry1976]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

Have NO idea what you are trying to say or prove.  
As I said (see above),  Let the nature take the courses; people can't manage a house will not buy a house. 
If someone bought a house, why are you worrying about?  What's your problem with it?  They're adults and you can't control them. Get a real life, man.[/quote]

The real life that I saw is: quite a few house owners are enslaved by the maintenace costs and the debts. They save every loonie from cutting the expense. They are more worried about the job loss because they cannot afford the mortgage.

Your real life is just one side of the coin, but I'd like to point out the other side. This has nothing to do with any worry, just personality.

 

[天涯]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

and Tian Ya, don't waste your time with people who are ignorant or those no brainers. Your time should be spending on things more interesting & more prosperous. --- Everyone has his fate to confront and let the nature take the course! If he's doomed to fail, let him fail; we are not the God who can save him. If he's a smart ass, he will do smart things without your help. This is life; and this is human being!

谢谢快刀MM的提醒，我就不多说了，有些东西就交给马版处理了，马版同学很不错～

 

[joesir]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

好像涨幅在放缓啊。。。

 

[Horse Dragoon]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

好像涨幅在放缓啊。。。

放缓是好事, 不超过10% 就没有泡沫.

 

[C_C]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

单从投资角度，房产和股票差不多，年复合增长率都是6%~7%。

房产的优势是可以贷款，利用杠杆效应，有点做期货的效果，但交易不便，资金容易被套牢。
股票的优势是交易成本小，灵活方便。

从生活角度讲，有个固定居所自然有家的感觉，但同时也限死了活动半径，得看个人是喜欢不动窝还是喜欢四海为家。

综上优劣相抵，买房其实并没啥特别的好处。

实在

 

[Feat]

回复: 一目了然, 大多伦多39年来的房价图!!!

失去了移民来源的时代，房价还会不会沿着原来的角度涨啊？