- 主题发起人 笨鸡003
- 发布时间 2007-10-19
回复: 一桶石油一百美元的时代
火鸡的故事
在投资的圈子里，有个大家都很熟悉的故事，也是大多数人存有的那种患得患失的心态。只有克服这弱点，在投资上才能做出更果断的决策。
火鸡的故事
有个人布置了一个捉火鸡的陷阱，他在一个大箱子里面和外面撒了玉米，大箱子有一道们，门上系了一根绳子，他抓着绳子的另一端躲在一处，只要等到火鸡进入箱子，他就拉扯绳子，把门关上。
一天，有12只火鸡进入箱子，不巧一只溜了出来，他想等箱子里有12只火鸡后，就关上门，然而就在他等第12只火鸡的时候，又有2只火鸡跑出来了，他想等箱子里再有11只火鸡，就拉绳子，可是在他等待的时候，又有3只火鸡溜出来了，最后，箱子里1只火鸡也没剩。
启示：
投资者往往不了解尽快停损的重要性，当情况开始恶化时，依然紧抱着飘渺的幻想，无法客观分析情况，以赌徒的心态，盲目坚守以致持续深陷，直至无法挽回的地步。这时平衡的心态往往比精巧的分析更重要。
火鸡的故事
在投资的圈子里，有个大家都很熟悉的故事，也是大多数人存有的那种患得患失的心态。只有克服这弱点，在投资上才能做出更果断的决策。
火鸡的故事
有个人布置了一个捉火鸡的陷阱，他在一个大箱子里面和外面撒了玉米，大箱子有一道们，门上系了一根绳子，他抓着绳子的另一端躲在一处，只要等到火鸡进入箱子，他就拉扯绳子，把门关上。
一天，有12只火鸡进入箱子，不巧一只溜了出来，他想等箱子里有12只火鸡后，就关上门，然而就在他等第12只火鸡的时候，又有2只火鸡跑出来了，他想等箱子里再有11只火鸡，就拉绳子，可是在他等待的时候，又有3只火鸡溜出来了，最后，箱子里1只火鸡也没剩。
启示：
投资者往往不了解尽快停损的重要性，当情况开始恶化时，依然紧抱着飘渺的幻想，无法客观分析情况，以赌徒的心态，盲目坚守以致持续深陷，直至无法挽回的地步。这时平衡的心态往往比精巧的分析更重要。
回复: 一桶石油一百美元的时代
他隔天又佈同樣的陷阱抓火雞，經歷了慘痛的經驗，他學會了不要貪心。
等了一下子，有八只火雞進入箱子了，正象等到十只的時候，忽然一只跑了出來。他想也不想，落閘放狗！
想七只火雞也夠吃了，正要去抓雞的時候，才發現不遠處有整百多只肥肥白白屁股豐滿不含防腐劑的火雞正慢慢往陷阱的方向走過來，但已經打草驚雞，雞飛狗走，曲終雞散了。
启示：
投资者往往不了解耐心的重要性，当情况开始搖擺时，貿然產生異常恐懼的情緒，无法客观分析情况，以赌徒的心态，盲目殺雞取卵，白白浪費了巨大的利潤。这时平衡的心态往往比精巧的分析更重要。
他隔天又佈同樣的陷阱抓火雞，經歷了慘痛的經驗，他學會了不要貪心。
等了一下子，有八只火雞進入箱子了，正象等到十只的時候，忽然一只跑了出來。他想也不想，落閘放狗！
想七只火雞也夠吃了，正要去抓雞的時候，才發現不遠處有整百多只肥肥白白屁股豐滿不含防腐劑的火雞正慢慢往陷阱的方向走過來，但已經打草驚雞，雞飛狗走，曲終雞散了。
启示：
投资者往往不了解耐心的重要性，当情况开始搖擺时，貿然產生異常恐懼的情緒，无法客观分析情况，以赌徒的心态，盲目殺雞取卵，白白浪費了巨大的利潤。这时平衡的心态往往比精巧的分析更重要。
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回复: 一桶石油一百美元的时代
The forex market had already bought the cut.
The stock should follow today later.
For today, even for this week, the bounce is due.
Anyway it doesnot matter much to me,
I am dead bird and would not look back
The forex market had already bought the cut.
The stock should follow today later.
For today, even for this week, the bounce is due.
Anyway it doesnot matter much to me,
I am dead bird and would not look back
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回复: 一桶石油一百美元的时代
if we are enough lucky, we may see some bounce to 12300 - 12400 key level in this week. The bull would not give up without a fight, and just need an excuse.
Today we have one ---- emergency rate cut 0.75 ----
Then wish myself good luck
if we are enough lucky, we may see some bounce to 12300 - 12400 key level in this week. The bull would not give up without a fight, and just need an excuse.
Today we have one ---- emergency rate cut 0.75 ----
Then wish myself good luck
回复: 一桶石油一百美元的时代
The rate cut really is in a sudden.
Although there is a rumours on the rate cut may happen, while I was in Shanghai this morning! But.....really....when I receive the email from my broker, I really get a shock and the first thing came to my mind was...THE BULLRUN is end..The world recession starts!
The rate cut really is in a sudden.
Although there is a rumours on the rate cut may happen, while I was in Shanghai this morning! But.....really....when I receive the email from my broker, I really get a shock and the first thing came to my mind was...THE BULLRUN is end..The world recession starts!
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回复: 一桶石油一百美元的时代
The recession is such a pain.
This is my first DOW stock experience, and I am looking for some stability from blue chip.
It's still such violently market, just like forex.
people always are too emotion ,
Sadly, we have to follow the emotion, sell first, and calm down later.
The recession is such a pain.
This is my first DOW stock experience, and I am looking for some stability from blue chip.
It's still such violently market, just like forex.
people always are too emotion ,
Sadly, we have to follow the emotion, sell first, and calm down later.
回复: 一桶石油一百美元的时代
A bounce either on this week or next week is a technical bounce for another big drop in the following weeks!
I am not worry on a mature market in North America. I am much worry on the Shanghai share market!
I am in Shanghai for the past 4-years, and watching on the untransparency of the market information.
As I understand that the significant profit gain reported for the listed company last year was due to changes of the Chinese accounting system implimented in 2007. Unfortunatelly there is no news report and emphasis on the China financial report on this issues.
Most of the listed company would release their annual financial report for year end 31 Dec 2007, in 1st quater 2008. We would see the real performance of the company! Its might be a big financial lost on their report, and the blue chip might be beaten.
I would advice to keep away from the Chinese share market in 2008 at least for the first quarter of 2008
A bounce either on this week or next week is a technical bounce for another big drop in the following weeks!
I am not worry on a mature market in North America. I am much worry on the Shanghai share market!
I am in Shanghai for the past 4-years, and watching on the untransparency of the market information.
As I understand that the significant profit gain reported for the listed company last year was due to changes of the Chinese accounting system implimented in 2007. Unfortunatelly there is no news report and emphasis on the China financial report on this issues.
Most of the listed company would release their annual financial report for year end 31 Dec 2007, in 1st quater 2008. We would see the real performance of the company! Its might be a big financial lost on their report, and the blue chip might be beaten.
I would advice to keep away from the Chinese share market in 2008 at least for the first quarter of 2008
回复: 一桶石油一百美元的时代
Their is really untransparency on the Chinese financial news!
An example:-
联邦基金基准利率突降75点 美联储举措超乎市场预料
http://news2.eastmoney.com/080122,769500.html
If I could received an email from foreign broker and remisers telling me that their may be a big chances for FEB to have a emergency rate cut of 50~75 base point, and might be follow by Canadian government where the Central Bank would have an announcement today!
Now we could see a US rate cut of 3/4 point and Canada of 1/4 point!
News transparency on financial market shall be emphasised in China market!
Their is really untransparency on the Chinese financial news!
An example:-
联邦基金基准利率突降75点 美联储举措超乎市场预料
http://news2.eastmoney.com/080122,769500.html
If I could received an email from foreign broker and remisers telling me that their may be a big chances for FEB to have a emergency rate cut of 50~75 base point, and might be follow by Canadian government where the Central Bank would have an announcement today!
Now we could see a US rate cut of 3/4 point and Canada of 1/4 point!
News transparency on financial market shall be emphasised in China market!
回复: 一桶石油一百美元的时代
美联储意外降息75个基点 称必要时将及时行动
www.eastmoney.com 2008-01-22 22:16 路透社
美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,FED)周二出人意料地把指标联邦基金利率目标下调75个基点,至3.5%.nCN0276716以下是分析师评论摘要:
EATON VANCE首席分析师BOB MACINTOSH:
"这出人意料,但考虑到过去48小时发生的情况,其实并不意外.联储意识到其政策滞後.这首先是一次心理举措,联储显然试图告诉我们:他们在支撑市场.它应有助於扭转市况.让我们拭目以待."
德银分析师JOHN TIERNEY:
"联储非常非常担忧.目前看来此举将支撑市场.在发现此举意义之前市场可能会稍事振作."
荷兰银行分析师DUSTIN REID:
"不管怎样,美联储都会为了流动性的目的而出手.他们不准备等到下个星期.加拿大央行今天上午会召开会议,因此可能有一点联手降息的意思.这对本地市场货币是好消息,对高收益货币也是好消息."
瑞银证券利率策略主管WILLIAM O"DONNELL:
"这应该会止住股市的部分跌势.如果股市回升,对收益率就是负面.美联储似乎专注于让经济站稳脚跟."
纽约OPPENHEIMER & CO首席投资策略师Michael Metz:
"这应能缓和跌势,但坦白说我认为市场被迫结清部位的情况可能还将持续一至两天."
联储显然有些惊慌,但不幸的是他们没有能力逆转在我看来是战後最严重的衰退.
"我讨厌卖乖,但我认为市场将剧烈振荡.我会争取在下午晚些时候或明天早上,趁另一波被迫结清部位操作出现时逢低买入."
市场反应:
--债市:美国公债缩减涨幅.盘中稍早其曾大幅上涨,受全球股市遭抛售所引发的避险买盘推动.
--汇市:美元大幅下跌.之前其曾上升.
--美股:美国股指期货脱离盘中低点.之前股指期货急剧下跌.
美联储意外降息75个基点 称必要时将及时行动
www.eastmoney.com 2008-01-22 22:16 路透社
美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,FED)周二出人意料地把指标联邦基金利率目标下调75个基点,至3.5%.nCN0276716以下是分析师评论摘要:
EATON VANCE首席分析师BOB MACINTOSH:
"这出人意料,但考虑到过去48小时发生的情况,其实并不意外.联储意识到其政策滞後.这首先是一次心理举措,联储显然试图告诉我们:他们在支撑市场.它应有助於扭转市况.让我们拭目以待."
德银分析师JOHN TIERNEY:
"联储非常非常担忧.目前看来此举将支撑市场.在发现此举意义之前市场可能会稍事振作."
荷兰银行分析师DUSTIN REID:
"不管怎样,美联储都会为了流动性的目的而出手.他们不准备等到下个星期.加拿大央行今天上午会召开会议,因此可能有一点联手降息的意思.这对本地市场货币是好消息,对高收益货币也是好消息."
瑞银证券利率策略主管WILLIAM O"DONNELL:
"这应该会止住股市的部分跌势.如果股市回升,对收益率就是负面.美联储似乎专注于让经济站稳脚跟."
纽约OPPENHEIMER & CO首席投资策略师Michael Metz:
"这应能缓和跌势,但坦白说我认为市场被迫结清部位的情况可能还将持续一至两天."
联储显然有些惊慌,但不幸的是他们没有能力逆转在我看来是战後最严重的衰退.
"我讨厌卖乖,但我认为市场将剧烈振荡.我会争取在下午晚些时候或明天早上,趁另一波被迫结清部位操作出现时逢低买入."
市场反应:
--债市:美国公债缩减涨幅.盘中稍早其曾大幅上涨,受全球股市遭抛售所引发的避险买盘推动.
--汇市:美元大幅下跌.之前其曾上升.
--美股:美国股指期货脱离盘中低点.之前股指期货急剧下跌.
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