Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

[tomkent]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

If I do that, then I should also include the extra $50-100k of down-payment that I save over the next 2 years?

to buy a 400K condo, according to your assumption (15% -20% price drop), decrease of the DP is 15K - 20K, not 50K - 100K.

You save more to buy with [high down-payment @ higher interest rate] compared to [low DP @ lower interest rate].

Let's calculated based on the situation you described:
1. now: 400K/25%/3.5%/25yrs --> $1498/mth
2. after 2 yrs: 340K/25%/4.5%/25yrs --> $1411/mth
You are not saving as much as you think even if the price really drops 15%.

Plus, 2 years later, Vancouver condo price will very well be 15%-20% lower. Smarter to wait.

I also wanted to buy a bigger one and sincerely hope the the price could drop. However, I'm not as optimistic as you. I'm not wise enough to foresee the situation for the next two years. However, my assumption for the next one year is that the house price stays or drop 5%, interest increase 0.5% - 1%. Based on this and the price range you provided, here's my calculation:
After one year: 380K/25%/4.5%/25yrs --> $1577/mth
This is higher than what you will pay for this year.

Next reason that I couldn't pursuade myself by your calculation is that you were assumming every factor is good for you. This includes the house price drop sharply, interest rate stays low, consistently high investment repayment, etc.

Also, when you calculate the "net lost" in "buy-now" situation, you should use lost - equity which is 28,539 -$11,493 = $17046. This is lower than the lost for rent number of $24,000, assuming that you are really good on investment, you provided.

Plus, if you rent for the next two years, you won't buy at that time if the house price really drops that sharp. You'll wait for the further price drops. Am I right?

 

[dudu0905]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

Next reason that I couldn't pursuade myself by your calculation is that you were assumming every factor is good for you. This includes the house price drop sharply, interest rate stays low, consistently high investment repayment, etc.

Also, when you calculate the "net lost" in "buy-now" situation, you should use lost - equity which is 28,539 -$11,493 = $17046. This is lower than the lost for rent number of $24,000, assuming that you are really good on investment, you provided.

Plus, if you rent for the next two years, you won't buy at that time if the house price really drops that sharp. You'll wait for the further price drops. Am I right?

wow...impressive

 

[wenxuecity]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

1。租金1350--〉1300。除了特例，一般租金都是涨的，至少赶上通货膨胀。
2。投资4%回报。在今天的环境下（参照国债），要有点风险，既然有风险，那就有可能一分争不到，或者像上面有位说的-4%。不要觉得不可能。
3。房价未来二年下降15%。这是最大的假设。

 

[rabbit2]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

1。租金1350--〉1300。除了特例，一般租金都是涨的，至少赶上通货膨胀。
2。投资4%回报。在今天的环境下（参照国债），要有点风险，既然有风险，那就有可能一分争不到，或者像上面有位说的-4%。不要觉得不可能。
3。房价未来二年下降15%。这是最大的假设。

大温房价未来二年下降15%。这是最大的假设
---------------绝对同意!

我估计最少要降30%以上,不过也是估计!

 

[jennychen]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

多大附近的公寓, 一房的可以一个月租1600以上.价格比你的房子要便宜一点.你这个例子算做很失败的投资.
还有在加拿大要考虑到税收问题, 你投资收入都要上税的.

 

[hao_xd]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

总体上说，住房应该是以消费为主，投资为辅。能够消费得起，就买房，付不起就租房。过度的消费（没有能力买房而强行买），会损害一部分生活质量。同时，能消费得起不消费，那么就是给社会贡献了，有再多的钱，也只是在银行帐号里的一个数字而已。

 

[Greater Fool]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

Tomkent, first if all, you misinterpreted my $50-$100k extra downpayment saved. I was meaning to say, each year I save an extra $25-$50k disposable income to add to the downpayment. By waiting to buy, I get to drop a bigger downpayment, while enjoying a lower price. So, you'll need to re-formulate your argument.

I will finish the rest of my response when I get home few hours later.

Next reason that I couldn't pursuade myself by your calculation is that you were assumming every factor is good for you. This includes the house price drop sharply, interest rate stays low, consistently high investment repayment, etc.

Also, when you calculate the "net lost" in "buy-now" situation, you should use lost - equity which is 28,539 -$11,493 = $17046. This is lower than the lost for rent number of $24,000, assuming that you are really good on investment, you provided.

Plus, if you rent for the next two years, you won't buy at that time if the house price really drops that sharp. You'll wait for the further price drops. Am I right?

 

[BRASSEURS]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

说白了，就是帐根本就不能这么算。
买房就是赌房价，你算的省下的那些钱，人家轻轻松松地涨到口袋里了。
房子就是看得见的金融。
你问我：买还是不买？我问你：苹果的股票买还是不买？

 

[枫叶红棉]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

其实现在买房的人，绝对不是靠租金收入来维持盈利的，其最主要的盈利还是来源于房屋价格的上涨。如果谁保证今后10年房价不涨不跌，那只有傻瓜才会买。

 

[gordondeng]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

成天算赚多少，赔多少。那你生活的舒适度，要用多少钱才能补回来。有的人坐飞机头等舱，都是同一架飞机，为什么要花两倍的价格呢？
住公园，搭帐篷更省钱。人对生活的理解不同，要求不同，如果只是住，那么无所谓，就一张床的事。可是家的内涵只有住这一个功能么？
就算租30年，1300一个月，30年房租是468000.现在这套房子值40万，就算30年贷款才还清，本息合计80万，那么付出的利息是40万，也比468000便宜。你是否预测30年后这套房子依旧是40万呢？回去看看历史，30年前工资多少，消费多少，房价多少。

 

[oops]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

其实现在买房的人，绝对不是靠租金收入来维持盈利的，其最主要的盈利还是来源于房屋价格的上涨。如果谁保证今后10年房价不涨不跌，那只有傻瓜才会买。

自住房的还是会买，楼主的意思其实是算自住房和租房哪个划算，不是说投资。

 

[gordondeng]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

GF绝对是投资高手，买房的本金年年都有钱赚，30年如一日。30年房租不变如一日，30年0通胀如一日，30年不搬家如一日，佩服佩服。

 

[oops]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

4%的投资收益已经很保守了...直接-4%......这...难道说墙上挖个洞藏起来的时候..房屋定期漏水..所以预计4%损失么...

投资么，个人投资总体来说亏的多，赚得少。

楼主这个算法全部往自己的既定目标去设定条件，说白了就是先有答案再去找算法。

我真心不相信房价2年内走低15%的情况下，个人投资收益能保障在4%。

如果房价涨了15%，然后投资失败平均每年亏4%呢，算算结果如何？

 

[gordondeng]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

有钱买来自住，没钱就去租。道理简单不过。

 

[Greater Fool]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

GF绝对是投资高手，买房的本金年年都有钱赚，30年如一日。30年房租不变如一日，30年0通胀如一日，30年不搬家如一日，佩服佩服。

不用佩服， GF 只是?有正业

 

[rabbit2]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

GF绝对是投资高手，买房的本金年年都有钱赚，30年如一日。30年房租不变如一日，30年0通胀如一日，30年不搬家如一日，佩服佩服。

买房，地税0，水电0，维修0，折旧0，保险0，没这么好的事吧？

其实说白了，赌涨，快买，赌跌，等等买！

就看谁对了就赚了！前几年，赌涨的人，赚了。

接下去呢？谁知道？

 

[gordondeng]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

买房，地税0，水电0，维修0，折旧0，保险0，没这么好的事吧？

其实说白了，赌涨，快买，赌跌，等等买！

就看谁对了就赚了！前几年，赌涨的人，赚了。

接下去呢？谁知道？

哈哈，最后还得买不是么。你会租30年房子？你还不是迟早要买，咱讨论的不是买和租的问题，咱讨论的是什么时候买的问题。又回到涨跌的问题了，看短期还是看长期的问题了，房价跌了，买进，涨高了，卖掉，租房子住。真是会算计，可很多人怎么都算计反了呢？
我也觉得要是能达到GF的高度，我也这么干。问题是我没这本事，只好买房子了，真羡慕那些租房子，2年搬一次家，用一次性家当的朋友们，可以开心的数票子。
而我们只能种种花，养养狗，吃点自己种的菜，搞不好还要布置一下房间，换换窗帘，请朋友烧烤，或者自己动手修理房子，看着每年上涨的地税发愁，只好去租住在地下室的朋友们那里，乞求他们行行好，给两个钱。真是羡慕那些拎着包就搬家，换个地方就换个伴侣的朋友们呀。

 

[gordondeng]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

没有地税，孩子教育怎么办，社区建设怎么办，天车怎么建，我们美丽的家园哪里来。那些不愿意交地税，又老是抱怨公共服务不好的人，还是不要在这里发表什么地税的言论，没交过就一边去。

 

[gordondeng]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

不用佩服， GF 只是?有正业

作为一个什么找房网的特约撰稿人，GF的言论是那么的标新立异。没人买房子，那个什么找房网站也要关门了，你的那些文章也没地方发表了吧。

 

[bonjaja]

回复: Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)

没看懂。我数学太差了，嘿嘿。