现在只有老美不同意人民币国际化。
有了解ETFs的朋友吗？
- 主题发起人 春剑圣仙梅
- 发布时间 2015-03-31
中美的对决，从半个多世纪以前的抗美援朝开始，美国就没有赢过啊
Opinion: Forget about Wall Street: Shanghai is now the market to watch
By Matthew Lynn
Published: Apr 22, 2015 3:30 a.m. ET
Chinese investors, brokers and banks will dominate global finance
shanghai_042215
Get up. Take shower. Brush teeth. Feed the cat or the dog. Check what the Shanghai market has been doing overnight.
For anyone in Europe who takes the markets seriously , that is now the regular morning routine. It is very much as it has always been, except with one big difference. Whereas once the standard reflex would have been to look at what had happened on Wall Street overnight, with perhaps a sideways glance at Tokyo, now it is Shanghai that investors look to.
What happens in China is now what dominates what happens in the rest of the world.
In the last few months, the Chinese equity indices have been roaring ahead. That is going to be the trigger for a big change. For at least 100 years, Wall Street has been the dominant global financial market, and it was from the Dow DJIA, +0.49% and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.51% that all the other bourses around the world took their lead.
From now onwards, that is likely to be Shanghai. Wall Street is about to be relegated into second place — and that is going to have big consequences for the way the markets in money work. Such as? Wall Street will become a regional bourse, more like London’s FTSE. The Chinese banks and brokers will dominate the markets.
And we will have to get used to a market dominated far more by private investors, and the state, and less by the professionals and the hedge funds.
No one can have failed to notice that the Chinese equity markets have been racing ahead this year. We have grown used over the last decade to the Chinese industrial machine swamping the world with manufactured goods, and we have become increasingly aware of the rise of a new breed of Chinese companies buying up assets around the world.
For years, however, its financial markets remained in the doldrums. Now it is acquiring the financial might to match its industrial muscle. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +2.44% has blown every other market out of the water in the past year, more than doubling in value. Since February alone, it has risen from 3,000 to 4,300, and keeps on going upwards. Like any market, once it gets on a roll, nothing seems to stop it. Chinese exports can fall, and its property market can wobble, but the Shanghai Composite simply shrugs bad news aside and keeps on climbing.
Of course, it might all be a bubble. The Chinese have always liked to gamble, and they are taking to stocks the same way they took to roulette — with spendthrift, reckless abandon.
Even veterans of the dot-com bubble of 15 years ago are likely to feel queasy at some of the valuations put on Chinese companies. Technology stocks are trading on price-to-earnings ratios of more than 220, compared with 156 for the Nasdaq index COMP, +0.42% at the peak of the Internet boom.
Just as with any boom, there are flimsy companies being chased up to ridiculous valuations. That said, just because price have risen does not necessarily mean the market has gone mad. China has grown hugely richer just in the last five years alone, and its stock market has not kept pace with that — so it might simply be playing catchup.
What it certainly means is that the Shanghai index is about to become one of the biggest in the world.
In November last year, it overtook Tokyo to become the second largest stock index measured by total capitalization. It is still only around a third of the size of the of the U.S. market. But when you take the number of initial public offerings — and keep in mind that a Deloitte report showed Chinese listings overtaking U.S. ones in both size and value in the first quarter of this year — and the run up in share prices, and it is not hard to speculate that the Chinese index will be the world’s largest by the end of this decade, and possibly before.
That is already making a big difference in the rest of the world.
For three or four generations, the most important thing every investor needed to know was what was happening on Wall Street. It was home to the world’s biggest companies, operating in the world’s biggest economy. If the Dow were up, then the FTSE UKX, -0.49% , the CAC-40 PX1, +0.36% and the DAX DAX, -0.60% would all rise the next day. If it were down, they would all fall. New York set the pace and the pulse of the markets elsewhere.
Now that is inevitably going to change. So much money is going to be cascading out of a booming Shanghai index, and it will be so influential, that it seems inevitable that it will soon match Wall Street and then eclipse it. Indeed, it may have already done so — it is already to its performance that most European investors look.
But it will make a difference in other ways as well. As Shanghai becomes the world’s biggest stock market, it is Chinese bankers and brokers that will dominate it. Already more than half of the top 20 brokers and investment banks by market value are from China. The likes of Citic Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan will soon be as familiar as Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley.
And the mood will be different. Whereas the Wall Street markets were largely dominated by professional money managers, at least for the last 50 years, the Chinese market is very different. It is dominated by small, private investors — more than 10 million personal accounts have been opened in China since December alone. And it is heavily directed by the state, in a way the U.S. market never has been.
If you think Wall Street was volatile, wait until you see what a market dominated by Shanghai is like.
Still, whether it is better or worse makes no difference. In the next few years, Wall Street will have been relegated to second place in the view of the rest of the world — and it is Shanghai that will have taken its place. Every investor will have to get used to that.
谁能给我一双慧眼...........现在看 a 股现在这个涨幅也不过分啊。
S&P/TSX Composite Index 从 2009 年到现在也是从 8000 涨到 16000 涨两倍。
http://web.tmxmoney.com/charting.php?qm_symbol=^TSX
直到目前才刚达 7 年前 高点。
a 股到现在也是 2 倍多。不过是爆发型的。
最后编辑: 2015-04-22
这个之前还真问过TD一个wealth management的人，看来问错人了。她说D版是只能通过外面公司的advisor才可以买的，虽然mer便宜，会有其他额外收费。比如有一些fund,写着initial sales charge,这个在TD 买是不收费的，但她说通过advisor买D板会有个几个百分比的收费。什么I 板，E板D版的非常让人费解。
请问外国人如何买中国股票？外国有上证ETF买吗？Opinion: Forget about Wall Street: Shanghai is now the market to watch
By Matthew Lynn
Published: Apr 22, 2015 3:30 a.m. ET
Chinese investors, brokers and banks will dominate global finance
shanghai_042215
Get up. Take shower. Brush teeth. Feed the cat or the dog. Check what the Shanghai market has been doing overnight.
For anyone in Europe who takes the markets seriously , that is now the regular morning routine. It is very much as it has always been, except with one big difference. Whereas once the standard reflex would have been to look at what had happened on Wall Street overnight, with perhaps a sideways glance at Tokyo, now it is Shanghai that investors look to.
What happens in China is now what dominates what happens in the rest of the world.
In the last few months, the Chinese equity indices have been roaring ahead. That is going to be the trigger for a big change. For at least 100 years, Wall Street has been the dominant global financial market, and it was from the Dow DJIA, +0.49% and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.51% that all the other bourses around the world took their lead.
From now onwards, that is likely to be Shanghai. Wall Street is about to be relegated into second place — and that is going to have big consequences for the way the markets in money work. Such as? Wall Street will become a regional bourse, more like London’s FTSE. The Chinese banks and brokers will dominate the markets.
And we will have to get used to a market dominated far more by private investors, and the state, and less by the professionals and the hedge funds.
No one can have failed to notice that the Chinese equity markets have been racing ahead this year. We have grown used over the last decade to the Chinese industrial machine swamping the world with manufactured goods, and we have become increasingly aware of the rise of a new breed of Chinese companies buying up assets around the world.
For years, however, its financial markets remained in the doldrums. Now it is acquiring the financial might to match its industrial muscle. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +2.44% has blown every other market out of the water in the past year, more than doubling in value. Since February alone, it has risen from 3,000 to 4,300, and keeps on going upwards. Like any market, once it gets on a roll, nothing seems to stop it. Chinese exports can fall, and its property market can wobble, but the Shanghai Composite simply shrugs bad news aside and keeps on climbing.
Of course, it might all be a bubble. The Chinese have always liked to gamble, and they are taking to stocks the same way they took to roulette — with spendthrift, reckless abandon.
Even veterans of the dot-com bubble of 15 years ago are likely to feel queasy at some of the valuations put on Chinese companies. Technology stocks are trading on price-to-earnings ratios of more than 220, compared with 156 for the Nasdaq index COMP, +0.42% at the peak of the Internet boom.
Just as with any boom, there are flimsy companies being chased up to ridiculous valuations. That said, just because price have risen does not necessarily mean the market has gone mad. China has grown hugely richer just in the last five years alone, and its stock market has not kept pace with that — so it might simply be playing catchup.
What it certainly means is that the Shanghai index is about to become one of the biggest in the world.
In November last year, it overtook Tokyo to become the second largest stock index measured by total capitalization. It is still only around a third of the size of the of the U.S. market. But when you take the number of initial public offerings — and keep in mind that a Deloitte report showed Chinese listings overtaking U.S. ones in both size and value in the first quarter of this year — and the run up in share prices, and it is not hard to speculate that the Chinese index will be the world’s largest by the end of this decade, and possibly before.
That is already making a big difference in the rest of the world.
For three or four generations, the most important thing every investor needed to know was what was happening on Wall Street. It was home to the world’s biggest companies, operating in the world’s biggest economy. If the Dow were up, then the FTSE UKX, -0.49% , the CAC-40 PX1, +0.36% and the DAX DAX, -0.60% would all rise the next day. If it were down, they would all fall. New York set the pace and the pulse of the markets elsewhere.
Now that is inevitably going to change. So much money is going to be cascading out of a booming Shanghai index, and it will be so influential, that it seems inevitable that it will soon match Wall Street and then eclipse it. Indeed, it may have already done so — it is already to its performance that most European investors look.
But it will make a difference in other ways as well. As Shanghai becomes the world’s biggest stock market, it is Chinese bankers and brokers that will dominate it. Already more than half of the top 20 brokers and investment banks by market value are from China. The likes of Citic Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan will soon be as familiar as Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley.
And the mood will be different. Whereas the Wall Street markets were largely dominated by professional money managers, at least for the last 50 years, the Chinese market is very different. It is dominated by small, private investors — more than 10 million personal accounts have been opened in China since December alone. And it is heavily directed by the state, in a way the U.S. market never has been.
If you think Wall Street was volatile, wait until you see what a market dominated by Shanghai is like.
Still, whether it is better or worse makes no difference. In the next few years, Wall Street will have been relegated to second place in the view of the rest of the world — and it is Shanghai that will have taken its place. Every investor will have to get used to that.
纳斯达克指数盘中上涨至5049.34点，突破2000年3月创下的5048.62点的历史收盘高位。
ASHR, CAF, FXI。
Looking To Enter Chinese Rally At 17% Discount? Consider CAF
Disclosure: The author is long CAF. (More...)
Summary
- CAF is a closed-end fund almost 100% invested in the Chinese A shares, but not reflecting the recent rally.
- The discount to NAV is widest it's been in multiple years.
- CAF presents an attractive opportunity to enter China A shares at a deep discount.
The Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund (NYSE:CAF) is a closed-end fund benchmarked to MSCI China A Share Index. It has been actively trading since 2006 (6 month average daily volume 300k+). Per Bloomberg it invests 92% of its assets in China and 5% in Hong Kong.
It is currently trading at a 17% discount to its NAV after dipping to 20% discount a few days ago.
The average discount for the past 5 years has been 5%. Each time it traded below 10% it reverted back fairly quickly and sometimes even traded at a premium.
E.g. in January discount widened from 8% to 16%. In the following 2 weeks it contracted back to 8%.
(click to enlarge)
Since March the much talked about Chinese rally accelerated, and the NAV discount widened again to extreme and attractive levels. We feel this inefficiency in the market will be short-lived and should be taken advantage of.
The Chinese stocks that are enjoying this rally (and are getting all the press coverage) are the A shares traded in the mainland China exchanges, as opposed to the Hong Kong traded equities, which have not appreciated nearly as much. By its design CAF has to be at least 80% invested in China A shares. But, as we indicated, in reality it is almost entirely invested in the A-shares and only 5% in Hong Kong. Still, there is a misconception in the marketplace that associates CAF with Hong Kong, and does not give it credit for being almost entirely an A-share vehicle, thus contributing to the NAV discount.
The chart below illustrates the effect of this most recent NAV discount expansion on CAF's performance relative to the Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-shares ETF (NYSEARCA:ASHR), an ETF that's entirely dedicated to tracking China A shares. In the preceding 12 months the ASHR and CAF exhibited 90%+ correlation. Since March we see the pronounced lag that should reverse once the discount contracts back to its historical levels.
(click to enlarge)
Yesterday CAF was mentioned in a Bloomberg article discussing the underperformance of some China A share tracking funds, which get their exposure through derivatives rather than by direct ownership of A shares. The story misleadingly lumped CAF together with those funds, despite the easily verifiable fact that CAF invests directly without using derivatives, unlike the other funds mentioned.
Since the rally began last fall, much has been written about its evolution and possible future scenarios. We believe this trading idea offers a more attractive way to participate in the China A-share market. As a stand-alone, CAF will benefit from the discount contraction in the bullish scenario, as well as provide a cushion in a correction, since its downside risk has been reduced, as compared to the instruments accurately reflecting the rally. Besides the above mentioned ASHR, the Market Vectors ChinaAMC A-Share ETF (NYSEARCA:PEK) is another ETF that tracks China A-shares closely.
We do not expect the wide NAV discount for CAF to last a long time, and anticipate the time horizon for this trade to be a few weeks if not days. But for those who are concerned with the overall market exposure in the meantime, you can offset it using ASHR or PEK which trade at their respective NAVs, and thus capture the discount contraction without taking a market view.
Disclaimer: This article represents our own opinion and research. Due diligence and/or consultation with your investment adviser should be undertaken before making any financial decisions, as these decisions are an individual's personal responsibility. We hold a position in CAF and are active traders. We may exit, increase or decrease this position at any time without notice.
Additional disclosure: The author is short ASHR. Disclaimer: This article represents our own opinion and research. Due diligence and/or consultation with your investment adviser should be undertaken before making any financial decisions, as these decisions are an individual's personal responsibility. We hold a position in CAF and are active traders. We may exit, increase or decrease this position at any time without notice.
十五年后纳斯达克综合指数收盘创新高, 让我想起了当年大名鼎鼎RBC life science and technology fund，（1999年涨了70%
）。到 Morningstar一看评级还是五个星，一看价格吓了我一跳，才$13.16, 十五年前那可是$30多！
）。到 Morningstar一看评级还是五个星，一看价格吓了我一跳，才$13.16, 十五年前那可是$30多！为啥？2000-2002年跌了80%，发生啥事情了？十五年后纳斯达克综合指数收盘创新高, 让我想起了当年大名鼎鼎RBC life science and technology fund，（1999年涨了70%
.Com bubble 互联网泡沫。
最近才买进些，需要调整不。才看了那么far back的价格，涨了七年后还不到99年的一半。
十五年后纳斯达克综合指数收盘创新高, 让我想起了当年大名鼎鼎RBC life science and technology fund，（1999年涨了70%
今天nasdaq创新高，但是高科技基金都是跌的。
因为加元涨了。
貌似美元的市场要比加拿大的市场选择大很多，现在的问题是：证劵帐号里有加币，想换成美金，又不想被劵商收走2%的手续费。
记得以前在网上（很可能是家园网）看到过，好像有这样的办法：买同一个公司的加币版股票或ETF，然后通过一个什么操作，在劵商那里就转成美元版的股票或ETF,然后卖出，就可以得到美元了。
现在记不得具体怎样操作，请问各位有没有经验。
记得以前在网上（很可能是家园网）看到过，好像有这样的办法：买同一个公司的加币版股票或ETF，然后通过一个什么操作，在劵商那里就转成美元版的股票或ETF,然后卖出，就可以得到美元了。
现在记不得具体怎样操作，请问各位有没有经验。
方法叫Norbert’s Gambit。找到一篇英文的，有各大券商的换汇操作指南：
http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2013/12/03/norberts-gambit-the-complete-guide/
找到Questrade的了。是个video。
语速不快。很好。同一页面的讨论也有很多信息。
http://www.moneygeek.ca/weblog/2013/10/18/how-exchange-usd-cad-cheaply-using-questrade/
语速不快。很好。同一页面的讨论也有很多信息。http://www.moneygeek.ca/weblog/2013/10/18/how-exchange-usd-cad-cheaply-using-questrade/
比较起来，貌似RBC操作起来最方便，因为它是自动jounal，无需打电话或者email联系。找到Questrade的了。是个video。
http://www.moneygeek.ca/weblog/2013/10/18/how-exchange-usd-cad-cheaply-using-questrade/
这还真不好说。短期问题不大，只是感觉不能长期拥有。这里还有汇率风险，当年1美元1.45左右，现在才1.21。如果长期投资建议买rbc canadian dividend fund。
注册或登录来发表评论
您必须是注册会员才可以发表评论
注册帐号
注册帐号. 太容易了!
登录
已有帐号? 在这里登录.
Similar threads
2024-02-17有新回复
全楼:0.04
Nebula.Trek
2024-07-06有新回复
全楼:0.65
科幻世界
