2. The Chinese Communist regime has responded by giving agriculture a higher priority, dropping the “Leap Forward” approach in industry, and relaxing somewhat the economic demands on the people. Perhaps the best indicator of the severity of the food shortage has been Peiping’s action in scheduling the importation of nearly three million tons of food-grains during 1961, at a cost of about $200 million of Communist China’s limited foreign currency holdings.
2. GCD政权的反应是优先解决农业问题,停止工业“大跃进”,以及放缓人民的经济内需。或许最好的显示食物短缺问题严重性(的事件)是1961年北平在仅有的一点外汇中拨出大约2亿美元进口了近3百万吨食用谷物。
3. While normal crop weather in 1961 would significantly improve farm output over the levels of 1959 and 1960, at least two years of average or better harvests will be required to overcome the crisis and permit a restoration of the diet to tolerable levels, some rebuilding of domestic stocks, and the resumption of net food exports. If Soviet technicians in large numbers do not return to China, industrial production is likely to increase about 12 percent annually, as compared with about 33 percent in 1959 and 16 percent in 1960.
3. 虽然1961年的正常气候会使农作物产量较1959和1960年有显著增加,但是度过这个难关、饮食恢复到正常标准、恢复国库(粮食)储备和之前的粮食净出口量预计至少需要两个平年或丰年。如果没有大量苏联技术人员回到中国(注:之前苏联撤走了大量在华技术人员),(中国1961)年工业总产值可能会增加12%,而1959年的工业总产值增幅为33%,1960年为16%。
以下为美国智库YY部分
4. If 1961 is another poor crop year the economic and political effects for Communist China are likely to be grave. There probably would be no increase in gross national product (GNP) in 1961, and growth prospects for later years would also be affected. Unless there were substantial food imports, malnutrition and disease would become widespread, and a considerable amount of starvation probably would occur. Public disaffection probably would become a major problem for the regime, perhaps forcing it to undertake a massive campaign of threats and terror. It is unlikely even in these circumstances, however, that public disaffection could threaten continued control of China by its present leadership.
4. 如果1961年又是一个荒年,这会对共产中国的经济和政治产生极其严重的影响。1961年的中国国民生产总值(GNP)估计不会有增加,往后几年的经济增长前景也会受到影响。除非(GCD)大量的进口食品,否则可能会出现普遍的营养不良、疾病和饥荒。民众的不满将会成为这个政权的主要问题,或许会迫使它采取大规模的威胁和恐怖活动。虽然以上状况(指TG威吓群众)甚至在这些情况下(指民众极端不满)都不太可能会发生,但是民众的不满情绪可能会危及到中国现在(指1961年)的统治政权。(吐槽:美国的中央智库居然开始YY)
5. We do not believe that Peiping would accept food offers from the US even under conditions of widespread famine.
5. 我们(指美国中央智库)认为北平不会接受美国提供的任何食品,包括在大规模饥荒的情况下(吐槽:根本是你们绝对不会提供,真特么不要脸)
6. We do not believe that even famine conditions would, in themselves, cause Peiping to engage in direct military aggression. Such difficulties probably would, however, prompt Peiping to avoid actions which would exacerbate its relations with Moscow.
6. 我们(指美国中央智库)认为甚至是在大规模饥荒的情况下,也不会导致北平直接搞军事进攻。但是,这种大困难会使北京避免做出恶化中苏关系的举动。
2004年披露的关于中国1962年的CIA文件请见:
http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/89801/DOC_0001098211.pdf
1962年,CIA再次做出结论:中国1961年的粮食产量仍低于1957年,但是人口继续增加,多了6000万。一减一增,生活困难是难免的。不过,由于以毛泽东为首的党中央领导全国人民建设新中国在过去十年取得了巨大进步,交通设施的改善加上有效的协调,虽然一些地区的群众正遭受饥荒,但是,并未发生像旧中国那样司空见惯的大规模饿死人的现象。