BC疫情和信息更新!#406 15/June (36 new cases)

總結今天(22/4)的數字:
1,新增三所老人院感染,貢獻最大的應該是家禽場爆發的數字,每個人都得到了測試。昨天家禽場匯報了28例,假設昨天結果是其中的8例今天是20例。那麼今天的數字是71-20=50例,這個純粹是推測了,再減掉老人院的爆發,可能就是40幾粒。具體攀升的原因就不操心了,讓專業人士操心去吧。總之,
2,不用太糾結某一天兩天的日增數字突然升高或者降低。也許測試標準改變了,也許測試條件放寬了,也許是又有了新的感染和爆發。單日新增八九十例的經歷在前兩個月都有過,一樣的道理,繼續觀察。大家都承受著很大的心理壓力,挺住,BC整體是表現很好的。為什麼呢?因為,
3,重點是觀察住院人數ICU,這些數字更重要,比和測試直接關聯的日增“假數字”更有意義。醫療資源不癱瘓是最重要的,也是壓平曲線的意義所在。後邊BC發展的如何,依然是看這個指標。即便是像阿省一樣又回到了一波數字攀升小高潮,依然是要保證醫療資源至關重要。
4,僅從今天BC整體數據來看,依然還是不錯,住院人數趨勢還是小幅下降,ICU也一樣。不過還是那個道理,一切都是動態的,需要BCer繼續努力。
 
同样也应该参照重症(住院)危症(ICU)数字,感染人群里的重危症是有一定的比例的

bc最好目前捂蓋子直接彙報個0,要捂蓋子就徹底點。
他們說20多天捂蓋子捂不住了終於爆發了,但他們不去思考這個病毒有20%的比例需要住院,而住院人數卻在他們說的這20多天里一直呈現下降趨勢意味著什麼。大概是患者都特別體諒醫生不想去麻煩他們所以都在家裡挺屍。
而且即便是病毒潛伏期是14天,但大多數都是在5天左右出現症狀,easter假期是大家之前都擔心的而實際上 上上週末早已經過去了潛伏期,也沒看到有什麼影響。
他們也不明白什麼是壓平曲線。
總之bc最好各種數據直接清零,不然總有一些刁民會認為被草菅人命了。
所以我認為,你和一些人浪費唇舌,是沒有意義的。
這是我最近得出的結論。
…………………………………………
補充:舉個例子,henry目前沒有對普通居民做出特別嚴格的出行限制,真要批評,應該在這個角度想想,要不要限制,這個政策考慮人性多一些還是考慮效果多一些。
而不是天天盯著數字說人家捂蓋子Lol.
 
最后编辑: 2020-04-23
4月23

29 new
cases

- another outbreak in another poultry processing plant with 2 cases in FH region
- that's a sister plant to the United Poultry plant in Vancouver which now has 29 cases.
- 78 cases in inmates/staff at Mission Institution (UCCO told me 66 inmates today, so that leaves 12 staff)
- 4 new deaths reported. Total 94
- 103 people in hospital (+0), 44 in ICU (-3)
- 1092 people fully recovered (~59%)

Re: outbreak at new poultry plant
- there was movement of people between the 2 connected poultry plants
- number of cases in the new plant will likely increase
- this is why chains of transmission must be broken ASAP
- to prevent introduction into places like LTCs

source: 文字直播
視頻直播
 
最后编辑: 2020-04-23
今天(4月23)BC疫情總結:繼續整體保持穩定,繼續觀察。

British Columbia COVID-19 Daily Situation Report, April 23, 2020*

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Data source: PLOVER extract on April 23, 2020. Participating laboratories include: BCCDC Public Health Laboratory, Vancouver General Hospital, BC Children’s & Women’s Hospital, St. Paul’s Hospital, Victoria General Hospital Microbiology Laboratory, Kelowna General Hospital Microbiology Laboratory, and LifeLabs® laboratories. Methods and Caveats: SARS-CoV-2 specimens are tallied at the specimen level by date the specimen was collected. The proportion positive on a given date may include new positive cases and retested positive cases; this may over-estimate proportionate positivity. Similarly, individuals may be tested repeatedly after becoming negative; this may under-estimate proportionate positivity. The relative impact of these considerations may be greater in the earlier part of the epidemic when repeat testing was more routinely undertaken and there were fewer tests being done overall.

**As of March 16, testing guidelines changed to focus on hospitalized patients, healthcare workers, long term care facility staff and residents, and those part of a cluster or outbreak who experienced respiratory symptoms.

***As of April 9, previous testing guidelines were expanded to include individuals with fever (>38°C) and cough or shortness of breath, including
(a) residents of remote, isolated or Indigenous communities,
(b) people living and working in congregate settings such as work -camps, correctional facilities, shelters, group homes, assisted living and seniors’ residences,
(c) people who are homeless or have unstable housing,
(d) essential service providers (e.g. first responders), or
(e) returning travellers identified at a point of entry to Canada. In addition to these priority groups, health care providers can order a COVID-19 test for any patient based on their clinical judgment.

****As of Apr 21
, universal testing guidelines were implemented to include all symptomatic individuals with fever (>38°C) and cough or shortness of breath.
 
4月24:

- 29 new cases, total 1,853.
- 4 more deaths, total 98.
- United Poultry outbreak now at 35, plus two st Superior Poultry.
- 78 at Mission jail
- 10 confirmed positive cases connected to the Kearl Lake project in Alberta
- No new LTC outbreaks.
- “Public health teams are also providing support to a number of community outbreaks, and we expect to continue to see more cases in the coming days as contact tracing continues.



203 inmates have been tested at the Mission Institution for #COVID19, 65 have tested positive, 30 have recovered 1 has died. The facility has the largest outbreak of the virus of any federal correctional facility in Canada
source:
Janet Brown
 
最后编辑: 2020-04-24
BC省官员在周五的声明中公布过去24小时,该省新增29例确诊病例,总确诊数升至1853例;新增4例死亡病例,总死亡人数升至98人。目前该省有96人住院接受治疗,其中41人在重症监护状态,1114人已经完全康复。
同时家园网的检测图表也显示BC最新的检测数量是超过了2800,差不多是昨天1500次的翻倍。
管理員的數據我也看到了,好像不准,和https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989e3cda29297ded
上面的不一樣,應該是2112檢測數
 
今日(4月24)BC疫情總結:簡單一句話繼續保持穩定,繼續觀察。

不過穩定中也有暗潮湧動的變化....

BCCDC檢測數據貌似慢兩天,dashboard里比較新(包括今天測試也是2K多),我覺得可能是測試需要1-2天出結果,所以CDC的日常匯報(含測陽數據的統計圖)就慢兩天。

從21號開始測試目標改為Universal testing。也正是那兩天前後,溫哥華的家禽廠和另外三所老人院爆發,單日確診數字也是近期的激增高值,從測試圖上可以看出來測試量相應也在增加,從前段時間平均1K多日測試增加到1.5k,1.8k,2.0k,那麼問題來了,

因為無症狀是不被推薦檢測的,那麼,這個測試量的增加主要是衛生局針對outbreak鏈條上的主動檢測調查為主(那有些人還是沒症狀啊)?還是說只要有症狀的人都可以去檢測了所以導致檢測量增加?
不懂。

Anyways, Herny昨天發言以及今天CDC的數據都在傳達確診數字可能有攀升的情況。繼續觀察。

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