BC疫情和信息更新！#406 15/June (36 new cases)

[luojingmay]

5月1:

- 33 new cases
- 1 death total 112
- 79 hospitalized (24 ICU)
- 52 Superior and 35 United
- 133 Mission jail; 15 from Kearl Lake, Alta. project

This is hugely significant. There are now just 24 people in ICU in this province with COVID-19. This is one of the indicators things are getting under control. There are currently 79 individuals hospitalized.
Source: Richard

233 people in ICU in Ontario.
218 in Quebec.
24 now in BC.

 

[luojingmay]

British Columbia COVID-19 Daily Situation Report, April 29, 2020*

http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/BC_Surveillance_Summary_April_29.pdf

1 四月下旬新增確診比之前高，可能和相對寬鬆廣泛的測試有關，以及近期的社區爆發(占64%)。
2 住院和ICU趨勢繼續保持小幅穩定下降。
3 測陽率整體穩定。

British Columbia COVID-19 Daily Situation Report, May 1, 2020

http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/BC_Surveillance_Summary_May_1_2020_final.pdf

1 住院人數繼續下降。
2 幾乎所有最近新增的確診病歷都能追溯到明確的感染源頭；近兩周沒有和travel有關的病歷。
3 从所有症狀都可以測試(21號)至今，目測日均測試量穩定在2300左右。其中，有爆發鏈的大量檢測(含無症狀)，也有普通市民頭疼腦熱的檢測。
4 測陽率已經達到近兩個月低值1個點左右。
5 bc住院軌跡預測見附件。下週一省裡公佈最新模型。
總之一句話：繼續保持穩定。

 

[luojingmay]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1256416369639256064

 

[luojingmay]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1256449719926001664

Lol

 

[luojingmay]

5月2:

- 26 new cases
- 72 hospitalized (-7) （23 ICU）
- 2 deaths
- 24 active outbreaks in LTC/acute sites (+0)
- 416 total cases (261 residents, 155 staff)
- 12 outbreaks declared over
- new community outbreak - Fraser Valley Specialty Poultry (3 cases) 50 Superior, 42 United
- Mission still 120
- outbreak associated with Kearl Lake project from Alberta is increasing & 'challenging' here

- Anyone coming back to BC from that facility since Mar. 24 must self-isolate
- there HAS been transmission within families of employees, which then can have impact in community, reach healthcare workers, etc. - 'the risks in BC are very high'
- you don't have control over whether you have been exposed, but you have control over who YOU expose
- 'we cannot afford to have any missteps as we look to ease our restrictions in the coming weeks'
- Re: 'progress' in Sweden on 'herd immunnity': - many measures there are similar to here but theirs are less strict - Sweden's case fatality rate is 'very high' - there is also no evidence yet of herd immunity that would prevent another outbreak
source: SrushtiGangdev

 

[luojingmay]

Ontario infectious disease doctor says B.C. has 'plateaued,' urges slow, steady reopening

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/gardam-dr-michael-toronto-humber-river-hospital-bc-plateau-covid-19-crisis-re-open-caution-1.5552850

 

[luojingmay]

'Does the coronavirus have eyes?' Kids ask Dr. Henry, Minister Fleming their COVID questions

On Saturday, B.C.'s Medical Health Official Dr. Bonnie Henry and Education Minister Rob Fleming answered some questions kids in the province have around the novel coronavirus.

www.citynews1130.com

Henry和教育部長參與了直播訪談，鏈接里 LizaYuzda
https://twitter.com/LizaYuzda/status/1256690217467052033
有很多孩童的home resourses。

 

[luojingmay]

Vancouver Coastal Health衛生官，處理BC多所老人院疫情暴發的負責人Michael的幾條推特。

Michael認為，老人院的疫情爆發並不是不可避免的，他們已經處理了17所老人院的疫情應對，並且總結了一些有用的措施。

1 主要的老人院爆發源自两次大的早期爆發，此後沒有再爆發(人數上接近)，有幾起已經停止。

2 老人院的職工確診數量繼續下降。 *是我們期待看到的*，因为病毒廣泛傳播。我們*没有*看到的是那些早期發現并傳播給大批老人院的案例。

3 對於老人院的職工，密切監視症狀。及早進行測試并廣泛測試，并支持職工因任何類似症状而立即off work。眾所周知，新冠症状可能會非常輕微。

4 對於追蹤接觸者，*考慮哪怕是面對面路過的接觸也要定為close接觸*。我們發現病毒的傳播可能在照顧老人更換長襪的短時間內，或者“午餐室”的職工接觸都是很普遍的。

5 老人們與其接觸者，不管有沒有宣佈症狀，都必須隔離。職工的接觸者們，同樣要求隔離，不管有沒有症狀。不要等待接觸者出現症狀。

6 我們目前正在對疑似有傳播風險的整個樓層/建築物/單元以及全體老人院進行無症狀測試。常規的例行檢查可以避免遺漏。

7 最後，我們開展的早的廣泛測試暫時幫我們成功控制住了疫情的傳播。

8 評論里Michael回答別人補充：BC所有的healthcare職工都被要求戴口罩和護目鏡。

中文翻譯的不好，敬請諒解，還是看原文最準確。

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1256728638243790848

 

[luojingmay]

BC省將會晚於魁省，安省以及阿省放鬆限制，儘管BC人均住院人數少於這些省份。以下是為什麼

BC省將於本週公佈放開限制的策略和時間表，不過就像過去2個月里BC控制疫情爆發以及限制自由的策略差不多，BC放開的策略也會和加拿大很多省份不同。

首先，本週不會有什麼放開，預計要等到本月中旬。並且，BC將會為那些過去兩個月里因為疫情而自願關閉的行業提供guidelines，而不是提供一份名單指導哪些stores應該open。
雖然BC有著比AB, ON, QC更低的住院人數，而且這些省份都已經宣佈了reopening plans。

不過有一些針對個人的guidelines即將被制定，比如多少人可以參加晚宴將會被討論，側重點是給予人們一個廣泛的指南從而安全踐行“新的社會規範”(new normal)，正如Dix說的那樣這種新的社會規範會一直踐行到疫苗的問世。

同時，BC緊急狀態下的權力隨時可以令任何不能安全踐行社會規範的生意關閉。

然而，因為BC省最開始就關閉了相對很少的社會活動，包括餐館吃飯，理髮美甲，以及超過50人聚集的活動，所以BC省也有著比其他省份相對較少的事物等待重啟。

UBC的疾病建模分析領域的專家Mohsen Sadatsafavi强调：“不同省份的方式不同，沒有教科書來指導我們當下所做的事情”，Moheen表示，多等一段時間將會為省里爭取更多的科學分析判斷預測疫情發展的黃金時間。

BC在整個大流行期間採用的公眾策略一直都是鼓勵+教育，而不是強制執法。
另一位來自UBC的參與了BC省政府建模預測的數學教授Daniel Coombs表示BC省的死亡人數低於美國任何一個州，以及低於加拿大人口超過500萬的省份。

然而，BC也不斷地有零星的疫情爆發，就像mission監獄以及家禽處理廠一樣，時不時就會有。

Coombs強調，社區傳播可以保持low，只要一些社會活動是準備充足地開放，不過當然人們應該繼續保持社交距離和個人衛生。他說"讓我們繼續保持在商店裡的相互避讓；只要我們無時不刻地注意這些細小的事情，我們就能切斷病毒傳播。這些做法是寶貴的，會讓更多的重要的事物重啟"

原文：

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257348147711442947

 

[luojingmay]

5月4号疫情数据：

- 2 days: 34 + 19 = 53 new cases
- 3 new deaths - total 117 deaths
- 77(+5) in hosp (20 ICU -3)
- 23 long term care outbreaks (266 residents, 168 staff, 1 death) no new outbreaks
- superior 54; united 35(+7); Specialty 7(+4)
- mission jail 134 (+14)
- Kearl lake - 15 direct and also more add'l family members affected
source: @LizaYuzda @alan_regan

今天直播两部分：1 疫情 2 modeling

 

[luojingmay]

重磅：
BC latest modeling • May 4, 2020

http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID19_ModellingPresentationMay4.pdf

 

[diterclluf]

BC省本来关的就不严，重开的压力也小一些。

 

[diterclluf]

VICTORIA (NEWS 1130) — New modelling projections suggest B.C. could almost eliminate new cases of COVID-19 by July if everyone continues to follow strict health and safety measures to reduce transmission.

Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says B.C. has seen a dramatic and sustained decrease in numbers of new cases since control measures were put in place in March.

 

[luojingmay]

VICTORIA (NEWS 1130) — New modelling projections suggest B.C. could almost eliminate new cases of COVID-19 by July if everyone continues to follow strict health and safety measures to reduce transmission.

Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says B.C. has seen a dramatic and sustained decrease in numbers of new cases since control measures were put in place in March.

good，我正在看模型。目前BC的軌跡往韓國 澳大利亞的方向發展。清零最好了，不清零也不錯。

 

[diterclluf]

good，我正在看模型。目前BC的軌跡往韓國 澳大利亞的方向發展。清零最好了，不清零也不錯。

估计会有清零的一天，但是不会每一天，作为一个警示也不错。

 

[luojingmay]

一個需要“免疫通行證”或者二維碼方可出行的世界可能即將成為現實。在某國，這樣的一些實踐已經開展。你是否支持“免疫通行證”的想法？
見評論 ?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257396067756359685

 

[luojingmay]

5月5日數據：

- 8 new cases
- 78(+1)hospitalized (21 ICU)
- 4 deaths
Community outbreaks:
- Specialty poultry 7; Superior Poultry 55(+1); United Poultry 35
- 134 Mission jail
- new outbreaks at Richmond and Ridge Meadows hospitals
- 17 LTC outbreaks over, including the first outbreak Lynn Valley
文字直播: Richard Zussman

- Dr. Henry on contact tracing apps: 'everyone and their dog has an app out right now'. "We've been looking into this a lot. we need to find the right IT support for the work that we're doing that doesn't create more problems than it solves. We have not yet found one that we feel meets the needs we have in British Columbia." 看起來像是要追隨卡爾加里腳步

@alan_regan

 

[luojingmay]

1 住院人數這兩三天增加了幾粒，但整體趨勢穩定。
2 日增確診忽高忽低，整體上算穩中下降，我對日增數字並不是很糾結。
3 新增的確診里主要的都能追溯到明確的感染源頭；半個月內沒有和國際旅行有關的病歷。
4 近兩天測試下降，推測和主要的幾個爆發链的测试做完了有關。測陽率依然很低。
5 明天BC省府出放開的方案。
一句話總結BC疫情：繼續穩中向好。

British Columbia COVID-19 Daily Situation Report, May 5, 2020*

http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/BC_Surveillance_Summary_May_5_2020_Final.pdf

 

[luojingmay]

5月6日數據：

- 23 new cases
- 74 hospital(-4); 19 ICU(-2)
- 3 deaths (LTC) ; total 124
- Kearl lake 16 (+1) (plus associated cases)
- Superior 56 (+1); 35 United; 7 Fraser Valley Specialty
- mission 134 (same), 121 inmates +13 staff
- Five hospitals and 17 homes have active outbreaks

- Vancouver Coastal 852 (+3)
- Fraser 1046 (+15)
- Vancouver Island 124 (no change)
- Interior 179 (+2)
- Northern 54 (+3)

"Dr. Bonnie Henry opens embargoed press conference on re-opening with the new cases for the day."
More details to come at 3pm.
source:
Richard Zussman

 

[luojingmay]

BC’s Restart Plan: Next Steps to Move Through the Pandemic May 6, 2020

https://www.energeticcity.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/BC-Restart-Plan.pdf

B.C.’s Economic Plan

B.C.'s Economic Plan supports people and families.

www2.gov.bc.ca

文字直播：

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1258156431116648448