帝国主义，巴菲特，裸贷，都是一个思路：砸一大笔钱给看上的国家，公司，美女，然后让他们乱花，还不上了，债务重组，收港口收土地，收公司，收美女的裸视频和身份证。
放贷，有的时候就是贩卖毒品。
最近原油价格暴跌，如果想单纯的抄底石油，USO 和 USL 哪个好？
- 主题发起人 lovemapleleaf
- 发布时间 2020-04-19
- 状态
帝国主义，巴菲特，裸贷，都是一个思路：砸一大笔钱给看上的国家，公司，美女，然后让他们乱花，还不上了，债务重组，收港口收土地，收公司，收美女的裸视频和身份证。
放贷，有的时候就是贩卖毒品。
可以参考第四大石油服务公司，WEATHERFORD。 这个公司就是最后重组了，原股东清零，董事会集体下岗，债主接盘。成立新董事会，改名，发新股重新上市。
当然并不是说OXY一定也会变成这样。
当然并不是说OXY一定也会变成这样。
可以看一下OXY的VALUATION MATRIX
它的MARKET CAP是11B，但是EV是60B,也就是说，将近50B的债务，债务是市值的4倍。
这种公司，很难有好的表现。它只有减肥瘦身才能成功。但是目前的市场，你要甩卖资产，不会有人接盘的。
OXY在走高之前，大概率会走低，油价再崩一崩，从当前位置再跌80%也不稀奇。
炒股切忌看股票过去价格，尤其是霉股。OXY过去很辉煌，一年多前还70多。但是这个价格没用。它在解决债务问题之前，回不到原来的价格。
它的MARKET CAP是11B，但是EV是60B,也就是说，将近50B的债务，债务是市值的4倍。
这种公司，很难有好的表现。它只有减肥瘦身才能成功。但是目前的市场，你要甩卖资产，不会有人接盘的。
OXY在走高之前，大概率会走低，油价再崩一崩，从当前位置再跌80%也不稀奇。
炒股切忌看股票过去价格，尤其是霉股。OXY过去很辉煌，一年多前还70多。但是这个价格没用。它在解决债务问题之前，回不到原来的价格。
我觉得可以考虑一下EOG。
OXY EBITDA是8.8B,EOG是7.8B。俩公司差不太多。但是EOG的债务水平相当于OXY 的1/10.
OXY EBITDA是8.8B,EOG是7.8B。俩公司差不太多。但是EOG的债务水平相当于OXY 的1/10.
本来石油服务公司如SLB也是很好的载体，无奈美国关井潮还只是开始，石油服务公司目前的风险尚未完全释放，目前进场似乎有点过早。
Here Is The Full Explanation Behind Today's Unprecedented Negative Oil Price
by Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/20/2020 - 22:40
Courtesy of IHSMarkit's energy vice president Roger Diwan
How did you end up with negative oil prices today? This happens when a physical futures contract find no buyers close to or at expiry.
Let me explain what that means:
A physical contract such as the NYMEX WTI has a delivery point at Cushing, OK, & date, in this occurrence May. So people who hold the contract at the end of the trading window have to take physical delivery of the oil they bought on the futures market. This is very rare.
It means that in the last few days of the futures trading cycle, (which is tomorrow for this one) speculative or paper futures positions start rolling over to the next contract. This is normally a pretty undramatic affair.
What is happening today is trades or speculators who had bought the contract are finding themselves unable to resell it, and have no storage booked to get delivered the crude in Cushing, OK, where the delivery is specified in the contract.
This means that all the storage in Cushing is booked, and there is no price they can pay to store it, or they are totally inexperienced in this game and are caught holding a contract they did not understand the full physical aspect of as the time clock expires.
The contract roll and liquidity crunch that made the extreme sell-off today possible but it DOESN’T necessarily represent futures market conditions: NYMEX June settled today at $21.13.
The June contract is not out of the woods either: today’s action indicate that physical oil markets at Cushing are not in good shape and that storage is getting very full.
A decline of over 15% in the June contract price points to real worries that the physical stress will continue to reverberate, and will force a lot more production shutdowns during May than the ones announced so far.
So today negative prices are the reflection of dire market conditions for producers, with the hope that demand restart before the middle of May and that the June contract does not face the same fate.
Source of article
www.zerohedge.com
by Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/20/2020 - 22:40
Courtesy of IHSMarkit's energy vice president Roger Diwan
How did you end up with negative oil prices today? This happens when a physical futures contract find no buyers close to or at expiry.
Let me explain what that means:
A physical contract such as the NYMEX WTI has a delivery point at Cushing, OK, & date, in this occurrence May. So people who hold the contract at the end of the trading window have to take physical delivery of the oil they bought on the futures market. This is very rare.
It means that in the last few days of the futures trading cycle, (which is tomorrow for this one) speculative or paper futures positions start rolling over to the next contract. This is normally a pretty undramatic affair.
What is happening today is trades or speculators who had bought the contract are finding themselves unable to resell it, and have no storage booked to get delivered the crude in Cushing, OK, where the delivery is specified in the contract.
This means that all the storage in Cushing is booked, and there is no price they can pay to store it, or they are totally inexperienced in this game and are caught holding a contract they did not understand the full physical aspect of as the time clock expires.
The contract roll and liquidity crunch that made the extreme sell-off today possible but it DOESN’T necessarily represent futures market conditions: NYMEX June settled today at $21.13.
The June contract is not out of the woods either: today’s action indicate that physical oil markets at Cushing are not in good shape and that storage is getting very full.
A decline of over 15% in the June contract price points to real worries that the physical stress will continue to reverberate, and will force a lot more production shutdowns during May than the ones announced so far.
So today negative prices are the reflection of dire market conditions for producers, with the hope that demand restart before the middle of May and that the June contract does not face the same fate.
Source of article
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
现在OXY已经没钱了，但是欠巴菲特的季度份子钱，一季度两亿要还，OXY只好给老巴付股票。
OXY一年要付老巴8亿美元，它现在市值是11B，一年股票就会稀释7%。
如果股票再跌个50%，那就稀释的更快。很快老巴手上的普通股就能成为最大股东。
OXY一年要付老巴8亿美元，它现在市值是11B，一年股票就会稀释7%。
如果股票再跌个50%，那就稀释的更快。很快老巴手上的普通股就能成为最大股东。
讲得太详细了，谢谢，学习了
看得惊心动魄。
我听说一个笑话，
一月 武汉加油
二月 意大利加油
三月 纽约加油
四月 我操 油加多了
一月 武汉加油
二月 意大利加油
三月 纽约加油
四月 我操 油加多了
刚才六月的跌到11.8了 ？？？
油价这么走，会不会拖累股市啊？
很有可能，恐慌情绪会传染的，昨天5月石油期货跌成负数，6月期货只跌10% ，但昨晚很多人回家一看各种报道，恐慌了，今天6月的期货一下子就跌了25%
油价今天最低到7以下，收盘13，太凶险了，散户最好还是别看别碰，理论上抄底有翻倍的可能，但抄得不好就要赔光，油价动荡太厉害，买了USO万一遇到清盘就麻烦了，我把这贴锁了，免得害了人
- 状态
