马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

[gordondeng]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

总是有理由跌的，哈哈。

 

[rabbit]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

Toronto Star近日发表了一篇关于加国目前投资的探讨，下面为地产投资节摘。



Real estate: Is it the answer to investor angst?​

By Gordon Pape | Sun Mar 04 2012

​

......A lot depends on why you’re thinking about buying property right now. Here are three scenarios.

To live in. I have always believed that home ownership is one of the four pillars of financial security. So I would never discourage anyone from buying a primary residence as long as they can afford it. ​

But buying when markets are high, as they are now, entails the risk of short-term loss. When mortgage rates move higher, as they inevitably will, the market price of houses will fall. That is an historic fact because affordability is a combination of house price and mortgage interest rates. As carrying costs go up, fewer people can afford the payments. So prices must fall to sustain the market.​

This means it is almost certain that house prices will stall and perhaps drop in the next few years. Much depends on how quickly interest rates rise. So if you are buying a residence now, be prepared for a temporary loss in equity down the road and be sure you can afford an increase in payments when rates move higher. ​

For income. Low interest rates make rental properties more attractive because the carrying costs are less. Also, the government allows generous tax write-offs for income-producing property. ​

But don’t lose sight of the fact that costs will probably escalate going forward. Interest rates will rise, property taxes are going up, natural gas won’t stay this cheap forever, and insurance rates are moving higher. Don’t lock into a long-term lease that does not make provision for such contingencies.​

As for buying a property to flip, that falls into the “greater fool” category at this point. It can be a great money-making strategy when prices are dirt cheap as they are in many parts of the States. But when prices are already through the roof it becomes a speculative venture. If you can’t unload before the market corrects, you could end up stuck with an expensive property you don’t want.​

For fun. The bargains that are available in the U.S. south are mouth-watering. You can buy a three-bedroom house in a great area of Palm Springs, California for less than $150,000.Homes and condos in Florida are selling for half (or less) what they would have gone for five years ago.Plus the Canadian dollar is high and interest rates are low. Time to become a snowbird?​

Maybe. Prices are low, but they could still go lower. As of December, average house prices in the U.S. were still dropping, losing four per cent in the month. They’re now at levels not seen since 2002. So there is plenty of room for some hard bargaining.But don’t be blinded by the low cost of entry. The expenses of carrying a Sunbelt property can be very high, and I speak from experience on this. Depending on where you locate, property taxes may be even higher than at home. Insurance rates are through the roof, especially in flood plains and hurricane or earthquake zones. Then there are costs for pest control, lawn care, utilities, house management, pool maintenance, if you have one, or condo fees if you go that route. Take all that into account before you buy.​

The bottom line is that real estate can be just as risky as the stock market, especially right now. Yes, it can be a good investment but you have to know what you’re doing and under no circumstances overpay. ​

 

[gordondeng]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

探讨，只是探讨。我们还可以探讨加国房价下跌80%对经济的影响。

 

[yahyby]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

记号

 

[3com]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

TREB今天2012,3月5号数据出台:

龙年2月份大多伦多二手房均价达: $502508, 历史性的冲破50万大关, !!!

同比去年2月的$454423, 上涨10.6%.

环比1月的$463534 上涨 8.4%

成交量: 2月达7032, 同比去年2月 涨16%.

[FONT=宋体]定性分析[/FONT]: [FONT=宋体]肯定涨[/FONT],
[FONT=宋体]定量分析[/FONT]: [FONT=宋体]涨幅[/FONT] 7.5% ( +, - 1% ), [FONT=宋体]即均价将上到[/FONT]$50[FONT=宋体]万[/FONT].

416[FONT=宋体]区涨幅[/FONT] 7%[FONT=宋体]，[/FONT] 905[FONT=宋体]区涨幅[/FONT]8%[FONT=宋体]，[/FONT]

----------------------------------------------------------------------

涨幅超过预期，是否该回调

 

[oops]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

还在BB这个涨幅呢，有意思么，condo没交易量，均价肯定上去了，等啥时候全部都成交豪宅，均价还能过百万呢。

都捡对自己有利的数据摆出来看，唱多唱空的都是，都可观点儿呗。

 

[Horse Dragoon]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

俺低估了今年的上涨!

 

[silubi]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

房价的上涨是最坚挺的，偶尔有时会歇气一下喝喝水再继续涨。想让房子下跌捡便宜的就免了吧。

 

[3com]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

兔子没有几乎

 

[@@@]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

俺低估了今年的上涨!

我之前预测多伦多今年增长 14%

看看蒙中了没有！

 

[gordondeng]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

我比楼上的高1点，15%

 

[@@@]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

房价的上涨是最坚挺的，偶尔有时会歇气一下喝喝水再继续涨。想让房子下跌捡便宜的就免了吧。

大多最近的确是淡季，最近想换房，每天关注市场。

房源多，客人少。 拿MARKHAM举例，年初几个月，每天大约都20多套的成交量， 最近一个月，每天就是10套上下。。

尤其是学区房，不过6月底应该会火起来，要开学了！

 

[Horse Dragoon]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

我之前预测多伦多今年增长 14%

看看蒙中了没有！

you hit the 50% = 7% !!!

 

[gordondeng]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

哈哈，涨了大家开心，多说点，刺激一下某些人，挺好

 

[lm001]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

[FONT=宋体]大多伦多2012[/FONT][FONT=宋体]年房价预测---- 马龙.[/FONT]

[FONT=宋体]定性分析[/FONT]: [FONT=宋体]肯定涨[/FONT],
[FONT=宋体]定量分析[/FONT]: [FONT=宋体]涨幅[/FONT] 7.5% ( +, - 1% ), [FONT=宋体]即均价将上到[/FONT]$50[FONT=宋体]万[/FONT].

416[FONT=宋体]区涨幅[/FONT] 7%[FONT=宋体]，[/FONT] 905[FONT=宋体]区涨幅[/FONT]8%[FONT=宋体]，[/FONT]

[FONT=宋体]基准数据[/FONT]: [FONT=宋体]以[/FONT]2011[FONT=宋体]年全年均价为标准[/FONT]( TREB 2011[FONT=宋体]年[/FONT]12[FONT=宋体]月份的报告全年度均价[/FONT], 将在2012[FONT=宋体]年[/FONT]1[FONT=宋体]月[/FONT]6[FONT=宋体]号左右出报告[/FONT])[FONT=宋体]，[/FONT][FONT=宋体]比如预计为[/FONT]: $466000


[FONT=宋体]主要依据[/FONT]:
1. 2010[FONT=宋体]年的涨幅[/FONT]( +9.1%) [FONT=宋体]和[/FONT]2011[FONT=宋体]年的涨幅[/FONT](+ 8.1%)

[FONT=宋体]2. 移民幅度不变[/FONT], [FONT=宋体]人口刚需[/FONT],

[FONT=宋体]3. 央行利率和贷款利率维持低位或再降低[/FONT],

[FONT=宋体]4. 通胀率[/FONT],

[FONT=宋体]5. 加国经济是七大工业国中最好的[/FONT],

[FONT=宋体]6. 土地转让税减[/FONT]25%,

7. 5[FONT=宋体]大银行的稳健和赢利[/FONT],

8. [FONT=宋体]房市无泡沫[/FONT], [FONT=宋体]每年涨幅小于[/FONT]10%.

快去买几十套房储备，现在没人和你抢啊！何必唠叨个没完

 

[lm001]

回复: 马龙:2012年房价预测---大多伦多.

房价的上涨是最坚挺的，偶尔有时会歇气一下喝喝水再继续涨。想让房子下跌捡便宜的就免了吧。

房子天天跌，只要封住中国人的移民政策不变。