- 主题发起人 martinqz
- 发布时间 2014-05-05
=================================================================================
盘后大跌的原因是CEO的口气比较直爽，说新用户增长太慢，产品设计太复杂，没有吸引到很多新客户。
我也没有想到会这样，真是开眼界了。
明天大幅低开的可能性较大。
如果是价值投资者的话，有余钱可以投入，在30.5左右放单接，反弹到35-36块出。
Revenue rose 61% to $502.3 million, beating the $481.2 million that analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected.
For Q3, Twitter guided revenue of $545 million to $560 million, up 51% to 55%.
公司毛利润高，收入大部分转化为现金，同时开发新技术，同比年增61%。P/S近似=245亿美金/(4*5.02亿美金)=12
FB目前是19，但是收入增长速度绝对不会有50%那么高了。
如果大跌到30以下，真觉得不敢再碰这样的股票了，以后就做做业务模式成熟的V,MA算了。
For Q3, Twitter guided revenue of $545 million to $560 million, up 51% to 55%.
公司毛利润高，收入大部分转化为现金，同时开发新技术，同比年增61%。P/S近似=245亿美金/(4*5.02亿美金)=12
FB目前是19，但是收入增长速度绝对不会有50%那么高了。
如果大跌到30以下，真觉得不敢再碰这样的股票了，以后就做做业务模式成熟的V,MA算了。
Here's What Analysts Are Saying About the Twitter Earnings Report That Sent the Stock Plunging
Twitter has had a rough start to 2015, and things appeared to be much of the same in its second quarter earnings report last night.
Yes, sales and revenue topped analysts’ projections, causing an initial spike in shares after hours. But there was one glaring disappointment: monthly active users. Users of the main application rose by just 2 million from the prior quarter, a gain of less than 1 percent. Chief Financial Officer Anthony Noto said that while the social media firm is adding marketing clients, it doesn’t expect to see “sustained, meaningful” growth in monthly users for a considerable period. That doesn't seem to be what analysts were hoping or expecting to hear, as shares plunged in after-hours trading.
With a lot of questions surrounding the firm, such as who will be the next CEO and possible acquirers, here is a look at what analysts are saying about the earnings release and the conference call that followed. As you can see, there are a lot of lowered price targets.
Cowen and Company's John Blackledge (Lowered price target to $30 from $34.)
2Q15 Results: Good Financial Results, User Issues Concerning. TWTR reported good 2Q15 financial results, but user issues persist. Mgmt. noted limited user growth could persist for an extended period of time given mass adoption issues, potentially impacting forward revenue growth as it could limit ad inventory growth. We lowered long-term estimates, which were ~10% below street pre-print.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Justin Post (Lowered price target to $40)
In the near term, we expect concerns on users/usage to weigh on stock as street takes a wait and see approach to the Project Lightening (curated feeds and news) launch in the fall. In the long-term, Twitter needs to become a mass market platform and we are not convinced added marketing will put the platform over the hump (it is a product problem, in our view). Given slowing user and rev. growth, we expect a smaller multiple gap to Facebook, and we are lowering our price objective to $40 based on 30x 2016 EBITDA (vs. Facebook trading at18x). We think Twitter could continue to see some valuation support on acquisition news.
Goldman Sachs' Heath Terry(Lowered price target to $49 from $56)
Management expects similar growth in MAUs until Twitter can reach the mass market, something contingent on improving the user experience and marketing the value proposition of being an engaged Twitter user. While this carries a high degree of difficulty we do believe the company can accomplish those goals and with TWTR trading at a 1.5X the median sector multiple despite more than 2X sector EBITDA growth, we see the risk/reward as favorable.
Macquarie's Ben Schachter (Lowered price target to $34, from $40)
The bottom line for TWTR is that after nine years of its existence, my mother still doesn’t understand what it means to “hashtag” something, but she does understand what it means to “like” something. That is to say that Twitter is still too difficult to use and inaccessible to too many. It still isn’t a mass market product and it is unclear if it ever will be. User growth is the key issue. Monetization isn’t the problem. The roadmap for monetization has already been shown by Facebook; TWTR can just follow it (and, in fact, is). However, if it can’t improve the product and make it more interesting and accessible to more users, the stock simply will not work.
Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak (Lowered price target to $36 from $39)
While user growth expectations were already lowered going into Q2, commentary around the inability to break into “mass market” bring into question the addressable market. TWTR ultimately needs to drive ad load and pricing higher to work, and at current levels stock remains expensive in our view.
Pacific Crest's Evan Wilson (Price target unchanged at $52)
Sticking with TWTR until new CEO is announced. Our estimates are largely unchanged...TWTR trades at a multiple (just over 20x 2016 EV/EBITDA) similar to other Internet names (LNKD, YELP, Z) and is cheaper relative to its growth rate, is growing revenue faster and has similar user growth struggles, which provides valuation support. We see a new CEO as a glimmer of hope that could cause it to outperform through the end of the year.
Twitter has had a rough start to 2015, and things appeared to be much of the same in its second quarter earnings report last night.
Yes, sales and revenue topped analysts’ projections, causing an initial spike in shares after hours. But there was one glaring disappointment: monthly active users. Users of the main application rose by just 2 million from the prior quarter, a gain of less than 1 percent. Chief Financial Officer Anthony Noto said that while the social media firm is adding marketing clients, it doesn’t expect to see “sustained, meaningful” growth in monthly users for a considerable period. That doesn't seem to be what analysts were hoping or expecting to hear, as shares plunged in after-hours trading.
With a lot of questions surrounding the firm, such as who will be the next CEO and possible acquirers, here is a look at what analysts are saying about the earnings release and the conference call that followed. As you can see, there are a lot of lowered price targets.
Cowen and Company's John Blackledge (Lowered price target to $30 from $34.)
2Q15 Results: Good Financial Results, User Issues Concerning. TWTR reported good 2Q15 financial results, but user issues persist. Mgmt. noted limited user growth could persist for an extended period of time given mass adoption issues, potentially impacting forward revenue growth as it could limit ad inventory growth. We lowered long-term estimates, which were ~10% below street pre-print.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Justin Post (Lowered price target to $40)
In the near term, we expect concerns on users/usage to weigh on stock as street takes a wait and see approach to the Project Lightening (curated feeds and news) launch in the fall. In the long-term, Twitter needs to become a mass market platform and we are not convinced added marketing will put the platform over the hump (it is a product problem, in our view). Given slowing user and rev. growth, we expect a smaller multiple gap to Facebook, and we are lowering our price objective to $40 based on 30x 2016 EBITDA (vs. Facebook trading at18x). We think Twitter could continue to see some valuation support on acquisition news.
Goldman Sachs' Heath Terry(Lowered price target to $49 from $56)
Management expects similar growth in MAUs until Twitter can reach the mass market, something contingent on improving the user experience and marketing the value proposition of being an engaged Twitter user. While this carries a high degree of difficulty we do believe the company can accomplish those goals and with TWTR trading at a 1.5X the median sector multiple despite more than 2X sector EBITDA growth, we see the risk/reward as favorable.
Macquarie's Ben Schachter (Lowered price target to $34, from $40)
The bottom line for TWTR is that after nine years of its existence, my mother still doesn’t understand what it means to “hashtag” something, but she does understand what it means to “like” something. That is to say that Twitter is still too difficult to use and inaccessible to too many. It still isn’t a mass market product and it is unclear if it ever will be. User growth is the key issue. Monetization isn’t the problem. The roadmap for monetization has already been shown by Facebook; TWTR can just follow it (and, in fact, is). However, if it can’t improve the product and make it more interesting and accessible to more users, the stock simply will not work.
Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak (Lowered price target to $36 from $39)
While user growth expectations were already lowered going into Q2, commentary around the inability to break into “mass market” bring into question the addressable market. TWTR ultimately needs to drive ad load and pricing higher to work, and at current levels stock remains expensive in our view.
Pacific Crest's Evan Wilson (Price target unchanged at $52)
Sticking with TWTR until new CEO is announced. Our estimates are largely unchanged...TWTR trades at a multiple (just over 20x 2016 EV/EBITDA) similar to other Internet names (LNKD, YELP, Z) and is cheaper relative to its growth rate, is growing revenue faster and has similar user growth struggles, which provides valuation support. We see a new CEO as a glimmer of hope that could cause it to outperform through the end of the year.
最后编辑: 2015-07-29
What 11 Twitter analysts are saying about the depressing outlook and stock price crash
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/twitter-sell-side-analyst-response-q2-2015-earnings-2015-7?op=1#ixzz3hHSr1z2K
"We do not expect to see sustained meaningful growth in [monthly active users] until we start to reach the mass market," Twitter's interim CEO Jack Dorsey warned. "We expect that will take a considerable period of time."
This gloom dominated the tone of Twitter's earnings announcement. Despite better-than-expected Q2 profits, Twitter shares plummeted.
"We have not communicated why people should use Twitter nor made it easy for them to understand how to use twitter," Dorsey added.
"The bottom line for TWTR is that after nine years of its existence, my mother still doesn’t understand what it means to “hashtag” something, but she does understand what it means to “like” something," Macquarie analyst Ben Schachter said. "That is to say that Twitter is still too difficult to use and inaccessible to too many."
The stock closed at $36.56 on Tuesday, and plunged 12% to around $32.15 after the news. Is it time to buy?
Wall Street analysts covering Twitter are mostly reluctant. Of the ten research notes read by Business Insider, four analysts maintained a "buy" or "outperform" rating on the stock. The other seven were neutral. No one is saying to sell.
Here's some of what they had to say:
Pacific Crest: BULLISH
Rating: Overweight
Price Target: $52
Comment: "Per usual, Twitter beat Q2 estimates but missed user targets. Monetization bulls and user bears have another reason to stay entrenched in this battleground stock. Results were close enough to normal that the announcement of the new CEO, which we expect in Q4, should be the next catalyst for long-term sentiment; we remain positive on TWTR in front of a new direction."
Deutsche Bank: BUY
Rating: Buy
Price Target: $50
Comment: "Our positive stance on TWTR is unchanged following 2Q results - the company is iterating on product in hopes of increasing the user base but not yet showing traction, and items in management’s control like ad revenue are exceeding expectations. The 40%+ correction over the past quarter factors in management’s muted tone toward growing MAUs, from here at 6.5x revenue we view the risk/reward as favorable. User growth will cause shares to re-rate higher as has been the case historically, but timing is unclear based on the updated 2Q commentary, and we are waiting patiently."
UBS: BULLISH
Rating: Buy
Price Target: $50
Comment: "Our PT is based on our blended valuation approach (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF)."
Goldman Sachs: BULLISH
Rating: Buy
Price Target: $49 (revised down from $56)
Comment: "Management expects similar growth in MAUs until Twitter can reach the mass market, something contingent on improving the user experience and marketing the value proposition of being an engaged Twitter user. While this carries a high degree of difficulty we do believe the company can accomplish those goals and with TWTR trading at a 1.5X the median sector multiple despite more than 2X sector EBITDA growth, we see the risk/reward as favorable."
RBC: NEUTRAL
Rating: Sector Perform
Price Target: $41 (revised down from $47)
Comment: "Our broad concerns remain two-fold: 1) It’s not clear when/if product/UI changes can stabilize or reaccelerate User & Usage metrics. And mgmt’s cautious commentary re: Q3 MAU growth compounds doubts about the user value proposition. 2) Channel checks and our survey work don’t provide convincing evidence that a substantial number of advertisers will commit meaningful $s to TWTR. Our concern for some time has been that Twitter’s lack of real- time commercial intent (a la Google) or detailed, authenticated profiles (a la FB) will eventually limit TWTR’s growth potential. By themselves, monetization improvements (including rising ad loads) can’t sustain premium growth rates. That why MAU growth matters. That’s why User and Usage metrics matter. And that’s why hitting Metrics Growth Walls REALLY MATTERS... "
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: NEUTRAL
Rating: Neutral
Price Target: $40 (revised down from $44)
Comment: "In the near term, we expect concerns on users/usage to weigh on stock as street takes a wait and see approach to the Project Lightening (curated feeds and news) launch in the fall. In the long-term, Twitter needs to become a mass market platform and we are not convinced added marketing will put the platform over the hump (it is a product problem, in our view). Given slowing user and rev. growth, we expect a smaller multiple gap to Facebook, and we are lowering our price objective to $40 based on 30x 2016 EBITDA (vs. Facebook trading at18x). We think Twitter could continue to see some valuation support on acquisition news."
Morgan Stanley: NEUTRAL
Rating: Equal-weight
Price Target: $36 (revised down from $39)
Comment: "While user growth expectations were already lowered going into Q2, commentary around the inability to break into “mass market” bring into question the addressable market. TWTR ultimately needs to drive ad load and pricing higher to work, and at current levels stock remains expensive in our view."
Macquarie: NEUTRAL
Rating: Neutral
Price Target: $34 (revised down from $40)
Comment: "The bottom line for TWTR is that after nine years of its existence, my mother still doesn’t understand what it means to “hashtag” something, but she does understand what it means to “like” something. That is to say that Twitter is still too difficult to use and inaccessible to too many. It still isn’t a mass market product and it is unclear if it ever will be. User growth is the key issue. Monetization isn’t the problem. The roadmap for monetization has already been shown by Facebook; TWTR can just follow it (and, in fact, is). However, if it can’t improve the product and make it more interesting and accessible to more users, the stock simply will not work."
SunTrust: NEUTRAL
Rating: Neutral
Price Target: $38 (revised down from $40)
Comment: "We remain cautiously optimistic on TWTR in the long term due to: logged out user opportunity, new products, Google (GOOGL, $659.66, Buy) partnership, better targeting, and the potential to improve mass market penetration. However, in the short term given recent challenges, we think investors have labeled Twitter a "prove it" story. Execution on product rollouts and their ultimate effectiveness in growing MAUs/engagement will remain paramount. "
Raymond James: NEUTRAL
Rating: Market Perform
Price Target: N/A
Comment: "Recent efforts to improve Twitter’s usability have yet to drive improved user growth, and we believe this remains a key inhibitor of outsized revenue growth. Solving the usability issue will likely take several quarters, and thus we expect quarterly results to remain volatile near term."
Oppenheimer: NEUTRAL
Rating: Perform
Price Target: N/A
Comment: "While 2Q EBITDA was 17% above the Street, we see muted investor enthusiasm around shares as management acknowledged the company "don’t expect to see sustained meaningful growth in MAUs". At 7x ’16 sales, TWTR is the second most expensive US internet stock behind FB, and still ahead of most internet category leaders that have a clearer product/revenue road map."
The bears are mostly worried about monthly active user growth tapering or rolling over.
But, the bulls are optimistic about monetization opportunities.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/twitter-sell-side-analyst-response-q2-2015-earnings-2015-7?op=1#ixzz3hHUBsnJ3
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/twitter-sell-side-analyst-response-q2-2015-earnings-2015-7?op=1#ixzz3hHSr1z2K
"We do not expect to see sustained meaningful growth in [monthly active users] until we start to reach the mass market," Twitter's interim CEO Jack Dorsey warned. "We expect that will take a considerable period of time."
This gloom dominated the tone of Twitter's earnings announcement. Despite better-than-expected Q2 profits, Twitter shares plummeted.
"We have not communicated why people should use Twitter nor made it easy for them to understand how to use twitter," Dorsey added.
"The bottom line for TWTR is that after nine years of its existence, my mother still doesn’t understand what it means to “hashtag” something, but she does understand what it means to “like” something," Macquarie analyst Ben Schachter said. "That is to say that Twitter is still too difficult to use and inaccessible to too many."
The stock closed at $36.56 on Tuesday, and plunged 12% to around $32.15 after the news. Is it time to buy?
Wall Street analysts covering Twitter are mostly reluctant. Of the ten research notes read by Business Insider, four analysts maintained a "buy" or "outperform" rating on the stock. The other seven were neutral. No one is saying to sell.
Here's some of what they had to say:
Pacific Crest: BULLISH
Rating: Overweight
Price Target: $52
Comment: "Per usual, Twitter beat Q2 estimates but missed user targets. Monetization bulls and user bears have another reason to stay entrenched in this battleground stock. Results were close enough to normal that the announcement of the new CEO, which we expect in Q4, should be the next catalyst for long-term sentiment; we remain positive on TWTR in front of a new direction."
Deutsche Bank: BUY
Rating: Buy
Price Target: $50
Comment: "Our positive stance on TWTR is unchanged following 2Q results - the company is iterating on product in hopes of increasing the user base but not yet showing traction, and items in management’s control like ad revenue are exceeding expectations. The 40%+ correction over the past quarter factors in management’s muted tone toward growing MAUs, from here at 6.5x revenue we view the risk/reward as favorable. User growth will cause shares to re-rate higher as has been the case historically, but timing is unclear based on the updated 2Q commentary, and we are waiting patiently."
UBS: BULLISH
Rating: Buy
Price Target: $50
Comment: "Our PT is based on our blended valuation approach (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF)."
Goldman Sachs: BULLISH
Rating: Buy
Price Target: $49 (revised down from $56)
Comment: "Management expects similar growth in MAUs until Twitter can reach the mass market, something contingent on improving the user experience and marketing the value proposition of being an engaged Twitter user. While this carries a high degree of difficulty we do believe the company can accomplish those goals and with TWTR trading at a 1.5X the median sector multiple despite more than 2X sector EBITDA growth, we see the risk/reward as favorable."
RBC: NEUTRAL
Rating: Sector Perform
Price Target: $41 (revised down from $47)
Comment: "Our broad concerns remain two-fold: 1) It’s not clear when/if product/UI changes can stabilize or reaccelerate User & Usage metrics. And mgmt’s cautious commentary re: Q3 MAU growth compounds doubts about the user value proposition. 2) Channel checks and our survey work don’t provide convincing evidence that a substantial number of advertisers will commit meaningful $s to TWTR. Our concern for some time has been that Twitter’s lack of real- time commercial intent (a la Google) or detailed, authenticated profiles (a la FB) will eventually limit TWTR’s growth potential. By themselves, monetization improvements (including rising ad loads) can’t sustain premium growth rates. That why MAU growth matters. That’s why User and Usage metrics matter. And that’s why hitting Metrics Growth Walls REALLY MATTERS... "
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: NEUTRAL
Rating: Neutral
Price Target: $40 (revised down from $44)
Comment: "In the near term, we expect concerns on users/usage to weigh on stock as street takes a wait and see approach to the Project Lightening (curated feeds and news) launch in the fall. In the long-term, Twitter needs to become a mass market platform and we are not convinced added marketing will put the platform over the hump (it is a product problem, in our view). Given slowing user and rev. growth, we expect a smaller multiple gap to Facebook, and we are lowering our price objective to $40 based on 30x 2016 EBITDA (vs. Facebook trading at18x). We think Twitter could continue to see some valuation support on acquisition news."
Morgan Stanley: NEUTRAL
Rating: Equal-weight
Price Target: $36 (revised down from $39)
Comment: "While user growth expectations were already lowered going into Q2, commentary around the inability to break into “mass market” bring into question the addressable market. TWTR ultimately needs to drive ad load and pricing higher to work, and at current levels stock remains expensive in our view."
Macquarie: NEUTRAL
Rating: Neutral
Price Target: $34 (revised down from $40)
Comment: "The bottom line for TWTR is that after nine years of its existence, my mother still doesn’t understand what it means to “hashtag” something, but she does understand what it means to “like” something. That is to say that Twitter is still too difficult to use and inaccessible to too many. It still isn’t a mass market product and it is unclear if it ever will be. User growth is the key issue. Monetization isn’t the problem. The roadmap for monetization has already been shown by Facebook; TWTR can just follow it (and, in fact, is). However, if it can’t improve the product and make it more interesting and accessible to more users, the stock simply will not work."
SunTrust: NEUTRAL
Rating: Neutral
Price Target: $38 (revised down from $40)
Comment: "We remain cautiously optimistic on TWTR in the long term due to: logged out user opportunity, new products, Google (GOOGL, $659.66, Buy) partnership, better targeting, and the potential to improve mass market penetration. However, in the short term given recent challenges, we think investors have labeled Twitter a "prove it" story. Execution on product rollouts and their ultimate effectiveness in growing MAUs/engagement will remain paramount. "
Raymond James: NEUTRAL
Rating: Market Perform
Price Target: N/A
Comment: "Recent efforts to improve Twitter’s usability have yet to drive improved user growth, and we believe this remains a key inhibitor of outsized revenue growth. Solving the usability issue will likely take several quarters, and thus we expect quarterly results to remain volatile near term."
Oppenheimer: NEUTRAL
Rating: Perform
Price Target: N/A
Comment: "While 2Q EBITDA was 17% above the Street, we see muted investor enthusiasm around shares as management acknowledged the company "don’t expect to see sustained meaningful growth in MAUs". At 7x ’16 sales, TWTR is the second most expensive US internet stock behind FB, and still ahead of most internet category leaders that have a clearer product/revenue road map."
The bears are mostly worried about monthly active user growth tapering or rolling over.
But, the bulls are optimistic about monetization opportunities.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/twitter-sell-side-analyst-response-q2-2015-earnings-2015-7?op=1#ixzz3hHUBsnJ3
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